During the Asian trading session, there multidirectional movement of the major indexes. The Japanese market is under pressure against a background of weak corporate reporting (Panasonic, Yamaha Motor). Better market traded securities of commodity companies, which may be associated with expectations to reach the bottom of the local market commodity futures.

Futures Brent crude in the last trading session confidently struck a "double bottom" in the region of $ 71, reaching a further $ 68. Today, futures are traded at around $ 70, which gives hope to rebound upward. The nearest resistance is located in the region of $ 71-72, where possible resumption of sales to the $ 65 per barrel. Overcoming the resistance of $ 72 may lead to re-entry to the $ 74-77.

Futures on the SP 500 this morning, moving around 1,060 points. If you continue to bounce up the main resistance is located at 1070-1080 points, which count on the resumption of decline. Coping with 1080 points, is likely to lead to the test of 1100 points.

If we consider the situation in the SP 500 locally, then blow out to 1,040 items and then return for 1060, likely provides a benefit to "bull", as it gives rise to a withdrawal of stops on the "Long", the possible formation of the New waves moving up.

At the same time the overall situation, in our opinion, is already evolving into a new downtrend with the main resistance in the 1100 points, the next target of reducing by 1000 points.

In the course of trading of the week will have a major impact expected data on U.S. foreign trade balance for December (Wednesday, 16.30 Moscow time), retail sales for January (Thursday, 16.30 Moscow time).
external background is neutral. America closed moderately higher, oil and gas market is worse, the financial sector better than the market. Asia is trading different directions.

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main problem of the Spanish economy is still a record high unemployment, which amounts to almost 19%. In the past year have lost their jobs over a million Spaniards. According to the Ministry of Labour and Immigration, in January 2010, the number of unemployed increased by another 125 thousand people and over the psychological barrier of 4 million is more than in Germany. Almost 82% of new jobless were employed in the service sector. In Spain almost 60% of all layoffs in Europe.

called and higher figures. National Statistical Service, which uses a different methodology, said the transition into the turn 4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the Spanish trade unions argued that the real figures on unemployment is even higher. According to them, at the moment work does not have 4.5 million people, or 19,4% of the economically active population in Spain. Labour Minister Celestino Korbacho recently acknowledged that the black market for up to 20% of GDP. Compared to the informal assessment of the view of independent observers put the figure at 25% of GDP, looks plausible.

bill on the reform of the Spanish labor market provides for the active involvement of young people to work, namely: expansion of the internship. "In Spain, young people have very few opportunities to try the case. It is very important in my view, take a right off the bat. There is no sense in a multi-year study and collecting diplomas. It i1000s not normal to begin work in 27 years, must learn in the process work ", - says Spanish economist Enrique Quemada.

Features of the Spanish Government attributed the financial problems of the country. During the last two years of economic decline of Spain from the state budget budget surplus was in short supply, and public debt rose from 36% to 55% of GDP. Fulfilling the requirement of the European Union, the Spanish government has undertaken over three years to reduce the budget deficit from the current 11,4% of GDP to fixed in the euro area of 3%. That means cuts in public spending on EUR50 billion, although the Spanish authorities claim that the social economy of the budget will not be affected.

While the life expectancy of Spanish rises, and the cost of pension provision. According to the latest projections of the National Statistics Institute of Spain, 31,9% of the population in 2050 to step over the age of 64 years, and the number of working-age population will decrease by 18% compared with the current level. According to Eurostat, in 2050 in Spain will be the oldest population in Europe, where the retirement age will reach every third inhabitant of Spain. Low birth rate and longevity will lead to the fact that 37,5% of Spaniards are over 65 years and to pay pensions to be nothing.
The Spanish government wants to mitigate the financial burden through the pension reform. Minister of Labour and Immigration, Celestino Korbacho elaborated on the minimum necessary steps to be taken in the coming years: to raise the bar of retirement age from 65 to 67 years to abolish early retirement, significantly reduce the widow"s pension. Only these two measures would "reduce leakage" pension fund in the amount of EUR50 billion

Spanish Government intends to increase retirement age from 65 to 67 years and increase it in future. "To maintain the current system of social protection, you need to take action now and then for fifteen years", - said the first deputy prime minister Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega. At the same time, Vice-Premier for Economic Affairs, Elena Salgado said that the government is open to dialogue, ready to make changes to mitigate the proposed reform. According to her, it is assumed that raising the retirement age will not affect workers" individual occupations that are considered severe.

Spanish Prime Minister Luis Rodriguez Zapatero tries to enlist the support of employers and intends to submit its bill unions. The Prime increasing criticism at home. In January, an unknown hacker gained access to the official site of the Spanish Presidency of the EU and was replaced by Prime Minister Zapatero to photograph the image of Mr. Bean - the awkward and touchy character"s British TV show, played by actor Rowan Atkinson. The Spanish press called this cartoon character inability Premier Zapatero to fight the crisis means that deserve respect for the rest of Europe.

Spanish government to discuss the reform of the labor market with representatives of trade unions and entrepreneurs, which is actively engaged in tripartite dialogue on employment and pension reform. Trade unions are cool project. They do not like the government"s plans to raise retirement age and some other restrictions in the social sphere.

And all sides realize that they will have to make concessions. "We very much disagree with the government, especially in regard to pensions, but we are positive and will work", - said the leader of the largest confederation of trade unions Spain Ignacio Fernandez Tocci. However, even in conditions of relative social consensus to implement a program of the Government of Spain will be difficult.

concluding two-day meeting in Canada, officials have said that their governments will continue to support the economy, providing a gradual transition to good growth.

Expressing the view of G7, Canada"s Finance Minister Jim Flagerti said that the meeting was considered and how the government will next year move away from support programs when economic recovery will take a more visible form.

Recall that the finance ministers and heads of central banks gathered at the next G7 summit on 5-6 February in the Canadian town of Iqaluit, is located just 300 km south of the Arctic Circle. Never before had representatives of the "Seven" is not going to the Arctic. The idea to gather colleagues in the settlement of the Inuit (as in Canada, called Eskimo) belongs to the Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flagerti.

Before the summit, a senior French official said that this time the ministers and heads of the Central Bank does not plan to "link" in the talks, and just for this reason that representatives of the financial power of the industrially developed nations are not going to issue a communiqué after the meeting. "The main idea of this meeting - to gather in a small circle and discuss all our questions" - he said.

In turn, the representative of the Canadian delegation noted that the Group of Seven also plans to talk about the future group, which after the financial crisis had ceased to use its former influence, to give place to G20.

Experts noted in turn that the G7 to discuss a number of other important issues, including reform of the global financial sector and exchange rates.

Ukrainian ship owners for several months the urging of the Transport Ministry to simplify procedures for registration of ships under the Ukrainian flag. The initiator, addressed the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP), which was supported Ukrrechflot and SC Ukrferry.

Ukrainian flag is not the worst when working on the world market. Another thing is that he is "inconvenient" for themselves shipowners in Ukraine, who complain about the arbitrariness of regulatory authorities and bureaucratic procedures.

Ukrainian flag uncomfortable only in Ukraine

Merchant Shipping Code of Ukraine determines the list of 15 key documents, which should have a ship, including certificate and a minimum of crew members. Until the end of 2008 the duration of these documents was the same as the classification certificate is issued for five years of technical supervision authority (classification society) after a planned periodic maintenance or inspection of the vessel. However, the Inspectorate of State Registrar of the fleet decided that shipowners should receive a certificate of minimum manning every year. It is a document of about 300 USD., But for its design should provide additional expert conclusions that draws Shipping Safety Inspectorate.

This procedure was introduced in late 2009, and the price of this issue is already different - 2-3 thousand UAH. By the same procedure can take about a month, during which the vessel is idle. It is clear that the technical features of the vessel and therefore the required number of crew members are unlikely to change every year. Currently in the State Register of about 5 thousand ships, then there is the annual earnings of Shipping Safety Inspectorate for the "expertise" can reach around 10 mln. Remains cumbersome and the procedure for registration of the ship, which begins with the harmonization of the application with the Inspectorate of State Registrar of the fleet.

This stage lasts less than a month, and then you can apply the Harbour Master, to whom will be assigned to the ship. This fee will be charged as an inspection, and the Harbour Master. (For comparison: in Slovakia registration of a ship in the registry (for 33 euros /ship) gives the right to use the flag. A certificate of minimum manning does not provide this information is entered into the ship"s certificate. In Hungary, too, in a ship"s certificate provides information on the right use of the flag, ownership and minimal crew. And, as a rule, in the neighboring Danube and Black Sea countries, procedures for issuance of documents takes from two to ten days.)

In late December the Transport Ministry held a meeting on simplification of procedures for ship registration and documentation. According to its results last week was finalized draft of "Rules for determining minimu1000m manning of vessels navigating under the State flag of Ukraine", which should make life easier for domestic shipowners.

small business" headquarters branch "

However, such changes - it is only "cosmetic procedure", which can not be influenced dramatically by the transformation of Ukrainian flag, or rather Ukrainian jurisdiction, attractive for ship owners from other countries regulatory regime.

In the world there are two models of the jurisdiction of the flag. As the boat on international rules should be home port and the appropriate jurisdiction (not always comfortable at home shipowner), many less developed countries have used this fact to earnings. The first country flags of convenience in 1925, became Panama, the second in 1948 - Liberia. But in recent years under "flags of convenience" has been operating for three-quarters of world tonnage. For example, for a ship with a deadweight 5 thousand tons in such states set annual fee of around $ 1,5-2 thousand quite some time now "comfortable" became even Moldova and Mongolia. These countries provide preferential legal treatment, a kind of "flat tax" is not interfering in the activities of companies.

feature of work under "flags of convenience" - not strictly controlled by the maritime administrations, which often leads to a breach of international conventions in the field of maritime safety, improper wage mariners, etc. For some of these countries use the term "dirty flag." It is in particular Cambodia, ships flying the flag of which were seen in transport weapons, drugs, violation of the embargo against rogue states, etc. However, a lot depends on civility "friendly" countries. For example, in the latest report of the Paris Memorandum of Understanding in Port State Control Liberia is on the 20 th place in the world, not less "comfortable" Panama - the 65-m ("black" part of the list).

Other models include maintaining national registries of ships that do not provide for special preferential tax treatment. But in this case the conditions of comfortable work depends on the civilization of the country. For example, in Germany, France or Poland, registration of the fleet and complete necessary shipping documents much easier Ukrainian, and the potential for abuse by customs officials, environmentalists and health services are minimized. In addition, the maritime authorities of these countries really defend the interests of shipowners and seafarers in other countries.

the transformation of Ukraine into the country flags of convenience "and the transition to work under our jurisdiction we are not talking. Since October 2005, and remained unsold Initiative Ministry of Transport amending the Merchant Shipping Code, which would permit foreign investment in the shipping business in Ukraine. Today the Ukrainian flag the ship is entitled to raise only a company owned "exclusively Ukrainian founders." And if in the charter capital newly established shipping company has at least one foreign UAH, the Ukrainian flag on its ships can not raise. This legal anachronism and not eliminated.

And today we do not even the data for analysis, which would predict the economic impact of innovation. "Losses of the state is difficult to assess, because the conditions from the time of independence drove the fleet and sailors in the shade. The State would be $ 300-500 per year for every 1000 dwt (registration fee) and $ 500-2000 per year income tax on each worker sailor, "- said" k: "Vice President of the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company Alexander Istomin. Pakistaea0n, recall, took fifth place in the world in the number of seamen (70 thousand), most of whom are working on ships under foreign flags.

solution of these problems will make Ukrainian flag attractive for foreign shipowners least because access to one of the world"s largest legal markets for employment of seafarers. After all, for any employer interested in low requirements of Ukrainian legislation to the size of the level of pay for staff at its high level of professionalism.

But, again, for 15 years talk about how to make Ukraine an attractive flag, a document or at least the project has not appeared. We can therefore only evaluate the multiplicative effect, which can get Ukraine, from the liberalization of the flag. Interviewed experts estimate additional revenues of $ 300 million to $ 1 billion a year. But while officials of entities of the Ministry of Transport has more mundane goals worth only a few tens of millions of hryvnia.

Alexander Arbuzov

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Nina Mitzi was instructed to do everything necessary to improve the image of the company. Her strategy was to "sell" the company itself, Rusal, rather than its scandalous shareholder. She acted immediately on two fronts. The first - the organization of the press tour for journalists of financial publications, so they can "feel" infrastructure "Rusal" and meet the staff (but not with Deripaska). Second - media training to prepare senior staff Rusal, which will have to meet with investors, analysts and journalists - the newspaper writes.

Then Nina Mitzi with several bankers went to Moscow to secretly prepare employees for Rusal to ensure that "sell" your project. Was formed two teams - to exit at the Paris and Hong Kong stock exchange. The course was held in the form of role-playing game, whose participants, including Oleg Deripaska, replied to all sorts of questions, even the most awkward, the newspaper said.

"Nina Mitzi warned its customers: it is impossible to silence the French press. Therefore, care shouc98ld be taken to provide the most reliable information in order to avoid the boomerang effect. There can be no question that the danger of the court, if the newspapers will write the bad reputation of Oleg Deripaska, as it is counterproductive. On the contrary, we must again and again to explain that much of the information is unreliable. And to prove "- continues edition.

January 25 Office of Financial Markets, to keep the financial public relations campaign that allowed Rusal to place their shares on the exchange. Nina Mitzi completed its task, writes in the conclusion of Le Point.

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decline in industrial production in Ukraine began in November 2008, chronologically, coincided with the beginning of economic recession in the U.S. and the EU. But he grew synchronously with the fall in world commodity prices - in addition to oil and gas on international markets rapidly became cheaper, for example, and metals. Thus, the global index of steel prices fell in the second half of 2008 almost doubled. The most vulnerable in these conditions were commodity economy. Another annoyance for them was the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers - one of the leaders of the market for credit default swaps. Since his fall sharply increased the risk of lending to emerging markets, while reducing the possibility of their external borrowing.

Only these two events have provoked a sharp decrease in foreign exchange earnings in Ukraine: in the fourth quarter of 2008, its export earnings have fallen relative performance of the third quarter, more than a third, and the volume of external loan proceeds - tripled. In the domestic market was formed and began to grow rapidly shortage of foreign currency. Its coverage was accompanied by a 60 percent devaluation of the hryvnia currency and the active intervention of the National Bank, the volume of which for the last three months of 2008 exceeded $ 10 billion

Along with Ukraine increased sensitivity to the fall in commodity prices also showed the country with low diversification of production. Significantly, the maximum depth of the recession in Norway (2.5%, 2009), relating to the world"s leading suppliers of petroleum and natural gas was much lower than in Russia (10,9%) or, for example, Mexico (10.1% ), also specialized in their exports.

no less remarkable and the national default of Iceland, whose financial stability has become a hostage ultimately unsustainable debt and single-industry reference to the fisheries. In this case the basis of the debt crisis lay not the usual "eating away" of foreign loans, and flaws related investments. In particular, it became clear that financial participa1000tion in the housing rush is no less dangerous than massive support for imported consumer goods: in both cases, the boom of personal consumption, not production of income to service debt obligations.
In this regard, it is not surprising that the epicenter of the economic turmoil in the United States. Besides the fact that the U.S. economy shows stable low rates of accumulation (about 16-17% of GDP against the world average of 20-22%), it is still bogged down in speculation in real estate, sharply narrowing the possible return of mortgage loans. Sustained immunity is China, by contrast, is easy to explain an incredibly high propensity to invest (from 30-35% of GDP in the 90 years up to 45-50% in the current decade) and an extremely small fraction of personal consumption. In this diversified investment in technology and production of means of production makes it virtually immune to the current crisis: After the slowdown of China"s GDP up 6.1% in the middle of 2009, already six months later they again rose to 9%.

In Ukraine, the beginning of global recession is observed in almost the whole possible range of its premises. A considerable part of them was shown so clearly that involuntarily raises the question of the nature of the efforts of the Ukrainian state, as well as an economic model structured around them since independence.

particular interest is de-industrialization of the domestic economy. Whilst the whole world is fighting for the right production and marketing of an increasingly technology-related products to additional income, Ukraine almost two decades, is moving in the opposite direction. During 1990-2008, the proportion of machinery in its structure of industrial production fell by half - from 31 to 14%, and Steel, by contrast, grew up and almost in the same proportion - from 11 to almost 27%. In this case an apparent attenuation of innovation. Thus, the associated development of industrial production declined in 2003-2008 tripled.

Links shortcomings of Soviet technology and the complexity of their development after the collapse of the Union were certainly appropriate for some time. But they can not explain why over the years of Ukrainian independence, Malaysia and China have strengthened their position in the international market of microelectronics, and its domestic production, and supplies when a unique military complex, is reduced to pischalok for toys. At the same complaints about the miserable legacy of the automobile industry one iota does not explain why its level is increased by assembling Korean, Chinese and Indian cars, while Hungary, Poland, Russia, Romania and the Czech Republic have a stake in the development of American, French, German and Japanese industries, then exporting its products to Ukraine. A Chinese entrepreneurs with agree with Ford to buy Volvo.

independent Ukraine, it seems, has not realized that its legacy aircraft industry - technological luxury, the right of possession which belongs to only a few countries. And if contrary to national policy, it has not been lost, it was only thanks mortgaged once the reserve of strength, which is not limitless. Moreover, the domestic aviation industry has long lost the signs of mass production, huddled up to build a few planes a year.

While the leading countries see their future with nanotechnology, in Ukraine, it again depends on the coal and iron beds Donbass and Kryvorizhzhya. Given that a hundred years ago, their power reflects the new horizons of the domestic economy, and today - its "post-industrial" past. On the eve of the crisis the share of commodities in the structure of the domestic industry was 70% against 14,6% of investment goods. Similar relationships are observed in the structure of merchandise exports. If in the 80 years it dominated by engineering products - approximately 37% and the share of ferrous metallurgy was two times less (18%), in the 2005-2008 ye1000ar have been observed directly opposite proportions: Engineering - 15%, ferrous metallurgy - 40%.
In the early 90"s, few talked about the risk of commodity redevelopment of Ukraine. Today it is no longer a risk and not a threat but a fait accompli, not causing any discussions. The domestic economy seems to be fully adapted to the new status of raw materials periphery. At the same time its dynamics rather rigidly adhered to the movement of world prices for steel, chemicals, grain and sunflower. In this regard, the debate about the economic achievements of today"s political opponents rather conventional. Just one more fortunate, and others - less.

Thus, during the first prime minister"s tenure Yanukovych observed 73-percent increase in world prices for steel. Not surprisingly, this period of sustained growth of domestic remembered GDP: 9,6% in 2003 and 12,1% - in 2004. But Yulia Tymoshenko in 2005, frankly no luck. During the first five months of its term at the head of the Government of steel in the international market prices dropped by 21%. The result is slower growth of the Ukrainian economy slowed to 1.9% (nine months of 2005).

In 2006 and 2007 there was a new rise in world prices for steel, respectively, 14 and 22%. Simultaneously with increased growth and Ukrainian GDP - up to 7,3 and 7,9%, coinciding with the second term of office of prime minister Viktor Yanukovych. This added impetus of economic dynamics gave active foreign borrowing, have stimulated housing and office construction, imported cars and spare parts, the massive consumer imports and related trade. Silent background of this growth is-increasing external debt, the gross volume of which the second "regional" government has grown in 1,7 times - from 46,2 to 80 billion dollars

taking over from his joint initiative of the Orange team for the first time tasted the fruits of a favorable commodity market conditions in December 2007. In fact, until the fall of 2008, the Government of Yulia Tymoshenko did not experience serious financial constraints: an unprecedented increase in steel prices (61% in January-June), and external borrowings of the private sector to promote decent dynamics of GDP and budget revenues. In this quarterly GDP growth consistently over 6%, and the budget was actively supported by taxes and charges on imports swell. But, with the rapid decrease in loans and commodity prices situation has changed dramatically. In the fourth quarter GDP fell by 8% in the first quarter of 2009 - by 19,3%.

current government, forced to answer not only for their decisions, but also for the policies of the past two decades, certainly not to be envied. However, his frank populism suggests that it is - not the worst student of his predecessors. In 2004, "the Regionals" initiated budget flirting with voters, then in 2005, their political opponents have intensified the budget fight for the loyalty of the population. In all the known dependence of "investment - economic growth - wages - pensions, attention was focused only in the latter two components. By Investment same interest only insofar as they may be involved in permanent campaigns.

For nine months, instead of the first premiership Yulia Tymoshenko, the pace of investment in fixed assets decreased to 3,4% against 34,5% a year earlier. Then, similar dynamics can be explained somehow retrenchment due to falling market conditions for raw materials. However, in January-September 2008, when world prices for metals and wheat rolls over, the situation repeated itself: investment in fixed capital again fell to 4,7% against 28,5% in 2007.

These results are not surprising if we recall that in March of 2005 the first "orange" government strongly manipulated the budget to increase social payments, and in 2007, the future prime minister has promised to resign if1000you do not return for two years, the contributions of the former Sberbank. For objectivity"s sake it is worth noting that the then pre-election promises of the Party of Regions have been no less generous. According to expert estimates, their implementation would cost 30% of planned budget, while the BYuT social package was pulling 25%.

These layout notable not only because of their protagonists and actors - the most experienced Ukrainian politicians had time for quite twenty years to show yourself at all senior executive and elected officials of the State, including president. Significantly, that they are sympathetic stable - in different configurations - no less than two-thirds of Ukrainian voters. What may be an indication not only of the prevailing support of economic policy. But it is also about his destructive indulgence most primitive society"s expectations.

In this regard, it must be recognized that output growth in the independent Ukraine has never belonged to one of the key tasks. Quite the contrary - in 2001 parliament dismissed Yushchenko government after when it was over a decade of decline and the economy started to grow. Unfortunately, the last five years only confirmed this rule: start with a 12-percent growth, she completed a 15-percent decline. It can hardly blame the adverse conditions. In 2005-2008 Ukraine paid for gas imports 24.7 billion
dollars, and for imported vehicles and spare parts - 27,1 billion These funds will allow the construction of several auto plants, "not in word but in deed," helping to create five million new jobs. However, the Ukrainian state has chosen to ignore such opportunities.

Like the fact that in these years, translation of our former compatriots and zarobitchan "two times higher than the currency earnings from exports of grain - the deadly statistics for a country aspiring to reform the village and the status of European barns. Of course, we can rejoice for the people who managed at least in foreign countries to increase their wealth. But it is unlikely for the state is unable to offer its citizens a better use of talent and zeal than immigration. The latter, incidentally, is a sure sign of serious market defects, since the cost of local production does not play embodies in her work, pushing out of the country"s most experienced and entrepreneurial professionals.

selection and promotion of the market the worst of all possible variants is known in economic literature as "negative selection". By the phenomenon commonly use when describing the local market failures. Domestic phenomenon seems to be related to the failed global. After twenty years of market reforms in China, the world started talking about a new economic miracle, recognizing the progress the country has been increasing its GDP by ten percent. In Ukraine, after seventeen years of experimentation of GDP remained at 25% less than in 1990. As a result of the eighteenth they are likely to prove less than the 35-37 per cent. It links to the negative impact of the global crisis unconvincing, since it is unclear why they do not interfere with the growth of the same China.

Start the recent economic history of Ukraine coincided with the collapse of the Union and accordingly triumph of neoliberal ideas. Meanwhile, domestic familiarity with them was even less profound than the reading of Marx"s theory of the Bolsheviks. As a result of sufficient prerequisites for social welfare has been declared private property and free markets, but necessary - universal free privatization and the lack of state control over prices. Today"s realities - then harvest crops. The country has double flowers bloom hundreds of monopolies and tens of thousands monopolek not accountable to the State is unable to verify any price, nor the quality of their products, even if it is a notoriously dangerous to life and heal1000th products. Because of this quantitative decline very often accompanied by degradation of quality, for which the strip of former guests are prohibitive.
However, all the "reform" the problem of the past decade has long been fulfilled. In this case, however, the victim of massive wealth redistribution fell as state property, and morality, rules which the second time in a century have been turned on its head. Along the way, was distorted and the economic orientation of society: the legalization of capturing people"s property development of the production has lost all meaning, since its yield did not go to any comparison with the possibility of instant enrichment through the legal expropriation of "orphan" companies. Not surprisingly, among them increased vitality showed the least complex and capital intensive. What is quite consistent with the investment potential and business horizons first native neophytes capitalism.

Their management is usually short enough for rapid personal enrichment with associated financial and material depletion of the once strong industrial complexes. By the beginning of this decade the leaders of the domestic industry and business began to smelters. Much the same part of the engineering works on the verge of physical extinction retard the rental and sale of vacant land adjacent areas. This former engineer and "blue collar" mass dissolved in the ranks of the bazaar, which replaced the scientific and production associations and become the embodiment of national "market."

For 18 years since 1990, the annual volume of investment in fixed capital in Ukraine dropped by half: the beginning of last year they accounted for only 44.7% of the level of the 90th. At the same time, real consumer spending grew in 1,4 times. These disparities better than any words explain the reasons for the sustainable reproduction of many domestic problems: degradation of technological enterprises, lack of commercial supply, its excessive costs on, high inflation, shortage of jobs, etc. Prevailing ideas about the possibility of overcoming them through the flexible exchange rate and price stability are not more productive than the neoliberal illusion 90.

In all fairness, criticism of the planned economy can not be denied that for a half or two dozen years, including during the civil war and devastation, it has allowed to build Dneproges and Kryvorizhstal. It is difficult to say that it can oppose today"s economic model. Тем более что массовая распродажа госсобственности не имеет ничего общего с формированием фундамента будущих поколений, а служит хаотичному затыканию бюджетных дыр. Как это произошло, например, с приватизацией той же "Криворожстали" и последующим растворением вырученных от ее продажи 4,2 млрд. долл.

Инвестиционная активность отечественного бизнеса, к сожалению, немногим выше, чем у государства. Текущий кризис - наглядное тому подтверждение, поскольку падение конкурентоспособности при ухудшающейся конъюнктуре является прямым следствием аморфной инвестиционной политики. Ее результативность наглядно демонстрирует горно-металлургический комплекс, не использовавший благоприятные возможности последних десяти лет.

Еще в 1999-2002 годах ряд его предприятий участвовал в экономическом эксперименте, получив возможность снизить на 70% ставку налога на прибыль; списать накопленную задолженность по неуплаченным налогам, сборам, пеням и штрафам; вдвое уменьшить пени и штрафы за будущую несвоевременную уплату налогов; наполовину снизить ставки сбора в Государственный инновационный фонд; не платить сборы на строительство, ремонт и поддержание автодорог общего использования и т.д. В это же время их экспортная деятельность была поддержана резкой девальвацией гривни, сопровождавшей валютно-финансовый кризис 1998-1999 годов. Наконец, уже в процессе указанного эксперимента на междун1000ародных рынках начался рост цен на металлы, продолжавшийся с небольшими перерывами до середины 2008 года. При этом глобальный индекс цен на сталь вырос в четыре раза.

Вопреки уникальным возможностям, ни о какой массовой модернизации отечественной металлургии речь не шла. На какие цели были потрачены 75 млрд. долл. валютной выручки, полученной металлургическими предприятиями только в 2005-2008 годах, - загадка, ответ на которую знают лишь их собственники. Между тем к началу падения мировой конъюнктуры они оказались готовы не лучше, чем украинские строители к сокращению внешнего кредитования. Что, по сути дела, и явилось одной из главных причин начала в стране экономического кризиса. Это, однако, нимало не смутило владельцев отечественных метзаводов, уже осенью 2008 года заявивших о необходимости их срочной поддержки государством.

Углубление сырьевой специализации не только привязывает украинскую экономику к хозяйственному циклу ее индустриальных партнеров, но также увеличивает амплитуду ее конъюнктурных колебаний. При этом технологическое увядание снижает производственный потенциал и будущие возможности страны. Надежды на иностранных инвесторов необоснованны, поскольку они выстраивают свою политику, учитывая местные приоритеты. Так, к началу прошлого года в структуре прямых иностранных инвестиций, привлеченных за годы независимости, вложения в операции с недвижимостью в восемь раз превышали объем инвестиций в машиностроение. Что служит неплохим индикатором масштаба хозяйственных задач, решаемых Украиной.

Сергей Кораблин

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In January of this year"s presidential election in Chile won billionaire Sebastián Piñera. It will take the presidential office in March. This is the first right after the fall of the leader Pinochet.

Piñera, who received his Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University, will rule the country with a population of about 14 million people and GDP of more than $ 245 billion

to his people, he promised 1 million new jobs and the transition to a market economy. His vast fortune and recently acquired political power was placed in the Pinheiro 15-th place of our annual list of the most influential billionaires of the world.

Wealth brings glory and power. But few people, owning a lot of money, industrial capacity and political power can claim a place in the list of most influential people in the world.

Pinheiro victory at the elections has already brought him the money: the stock prices of the largest holding company of the newly created President"s rose 2 times. According to the data, dated March 2009, his income becomes $ 1 billion

In order to appease critics, Piñera promised to sell his part of the shares in one of the largest airlines in South America"s LAN Airlines. He also gave more than $ 400 million investment under the control of a blind trust.

So did many politicians, including the world"s most influential billionaire Michael Bloomberg. As mayor of New York City, Bloomberg manages worldwide computer network of business news Bloomberg LP. Forbes magazine praised him for his fortune of $ 17.5 billion

With Bloomberg, New York has managed to successfully survive the financial crisis and reduce unemployment, which stood at 10,6%. This billionaire helped the city acquire the title of "safest city of USA. After his decision to ban smoking on the premises, many mayors around the world take his example.

next two billionaire also taken a great interest in politics. Owner of many telecommunications and insurance companies, mutual and pension funds, part-time Italian Prime Minister - Silvio Berlusconi - is on the second spot in our list. The billionaire Saad Hariri, who was appointed prime minister of Lebanon, took 5 th place.

The top five also includes the King communications industry in Latin America Carlos Slim and the Russian oil tycoon Alekperov. Slim, the third richest man in the world, leads the largest cellular company America Movil. In March of 2009, his fortune was estimated at $ 35 billion Alekperov, Lukoil head, one of the largest oil companies in the world. Its cost - $ 46 billion

With its powerful industrial potential, the richest man in India - Mukesh Ambani - is in our list of the 8 th position. Ambani controls the oil and gas holding company Reliance Industries, which is estimated at $ 73 billion

His fellow Lakshmi Mittal owns the honorary title of the second richest man in India. His company producing metal ArcelorMittal is estimated at $ 65 billion this billionaire gets 13 seats.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs took the 18 th position in our list. This person has made a radical change in the animation (Pixar), music (iPod) and telephony (iPhone).

billionaires who we are this year have not honored the title of "most influential" are Oprah Winfrey, Roman Abramovich and the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talala34Alsaud.

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controversy in Chinese media about the value of national currency unfolded after the statement was sounded a few days ago Obama that Washington will continue to raise with the theme of Beijing"s exchange rate of yuan, and will be more rigid on the issue of bilateral trade imbalance. In this regard, Foreign Ministry spo1000kesman Ma Chzhaosyuy on Thursday urged the U.S. to a more objective approach to the problems of the Sino-American trade, and stated that "the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason for the negative balance of U.S. trade with China."

According to the expert from the Research Institute under the Ministry of Trade Li Jian, China will not go on about the U.S. and will not accelerate the revaluation of the yuan. "Even if the value of the yuan will rise, it is an internal affair of China" - cites the publication of his words. According to him, in the current year exchange rate of RMB will remain stable and significant differences are not expected.

the pages of today"s central press, many experts agree that rapid revaluation of the currency will negatively affect the economic situation in the country, given that the government is expected to ready to give up was held in last year"s anti-crisis stimulatory policies that enabled the in 2009 GDP growth at 8.7 percent.

PRC Government has stated previously that he would continue to maintain stability of yuan at a rational and balanced manner and that no country has right to tell China what to do in this matter.

American experts believe the yuan is artificially undervalued, giving Chinese goods advantages to the U.S. market and leads to an imbalance in bilateral trade.

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The average result for the week on all the most liquid securities are in the minus four percent. Among the blue chip leaders in growth during this period were common shares Uralsvyazinform (5.8%) in the wake of lifting many telecoms, most of which, however, belong to the "second wave", as well as Chairman of Audit Committee (2,8%). In the outsiders were preferred Sberbank (-3.3%), losing their potential, demonstrated in 2009, and Norilsk Nickel (-2.8%).

Today, falling oil prices continued to put pressure on the market, but low opening and then succeeded by a small reduction of almost the entire spectrum of liquid securities. Turn up contributed released in the U.S. unemployment figures. The day closed in complete uncertainty, one can only guess where the market opens and will go on Monday. The most negative result showed privileged Rostelecom (-4.9%) and VTB (-4,5%). The least affected today Sberbank ordinary (-2%) and privileged (as -2%). In the plus side the eternal outsider market ordinary Rostelecom (1,2%).

Mid dynamics is clearly visible on the daily chart of the MICEX Index.

attempt to pass an important support level at 1,390 points (blue line on the graph), which failed last week, finally ended his breakdown on this.

In addition, the index went down the level of long-term uptrend (red line on the graph), indicating that the dynamics in the context of several months has been replaced with a bull to a bear. Now to the movement down is the level of 1250 points.

Therefore, in the next few weeks, we, with high probability, see the market correction to all debts increase, which began in July 2009. Based on history, a serious correction for our market is falling by 25-30% from a peak itself. Therefore, following this rule, you can roughly determine where the index will be when the dust after the collapse starts to drop. This is the area between 1050 and 1120 points.

Clearly, the expected drop will go to short-term rebound and the pause time, but muste67take time in the month.

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"The negotiation process between the shareholders on the capital increase is in the final stage, as eviden1000ced by an agreed position on the need to urgently convene an extraordinary shareholders meeting in March 2010," - he said the agency "Interfax-Ukraine.

This department director NBU said that the results of diagnostic examination ordered the National Bank Bank "Forum" to carry out capital increase.

"The question of capital increase the bank is continuously monitoring the NBU ... Management of the bank (Forum) is making every effort to quickly address the issue of share capital increase", - stressed Kruglik.

reportedly in talks to increase the authorized capital of the bank has lasted more than six months. Majority shareholder of the "Forum" (Commerzbank Auslandsbanken Holding AG) insisted on the amount of capital increase of $ 1.1 billion USD, while the minority shareholder offered to raise capital only 300 million UAH. In December 2009 the shareholders financial institutions have decided that the next consideration of the share capital increase by 48,7% or 1,1 billion UAH, - up to 3,359,000,000 USD will be held on March 4.

According Kruglik scheduled Commerzbank Auslandsbanken Holding capital increase the bank"s "Forum" is twice recorded as a result of diagnostic examination and the amount is only a first step: the capitalization of the bank may continue throughout 2010.

"Thus, a shareholder of the bank Commerzbank Auslandsbanken Holding has confirmed its intentions regarding the capital increase and witnessed a strong interest and full support for long-term investment in the bank by setting aside the required amount to increase the share capital of the bank," - he stressed.

As reported, the last time the bank "Forum" has increased the authorized capital in the first quarter of 2009 - by 39,4% to 2.259 billion USD. This net loss of the bank last year amounted to UAH 664.557 million, compared with a net profit in 2008 at 10.271 million USD. Net loss in the fourth quarter amounted to 240.27 million USD in the third - 140.997 million USD in the second - 196.605 million USD in the first quarter - 86,685,000 UAH.

bank assets in 2009 decreased by 5,2% - to 19.453 billion USD. Allowances for loan losses increased in 2,2 times - up to UAH 1.678 billion and total shareholders" equity at year-end amounted to only 1.867 billion USD.

According to the agency a source in the National Bank, Commerzbank Auslandsbanken Holding admits another building capital in the summer of 2010: it may be increased by another 1.5 billion UAH.

Experts believe that the way out will be for sale by minority shareholders of their shares of major shareholders.

"Commerzbank, for its part, can finally agree to pay a minority shareholder Leonid Yurushev more attractive to him the price for his shares," - said an analyst with investment company "Concord Capital" Nikita Mikhailichenko.

"Equity Bank" Forum "may represent an attractive short-term investments for investors who are inclined to take risks and generate revenues of up to 25% for one or two months. The catalyst for short-term growth could increase the share capital at a shareholders meeting on March 4," - added said.

Bank "Forum" was founded in 1994. The largest of its shareholders on January 1, 2010 were Commerzbank Auslandsbanken Holding AG (63,0017%), Yurushev (10.5135%) and the associated JSC Venture indoor Non-Diversified Corporate Investment Fund "Unibudinvest" (15.7396%).

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According to the National Bank of Ukraine, on October 1, 2009 by total assets (18.645 billion USD), Bank Forum takes 12 th place among 182 banks operating in the country.

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