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The stock market of Russia on Tuesday updated the annual summit of the RTS index on rising oil

Sep 30th, 2009 | By admin | Category: Scenario and forecasts

stock market of Russia on Tuesday has grown in most blue chips and updated the annual maximum for closing trades on the RTS on the background have adjusted upward oil; evening statistics from the U.S. a little darkened bull game speculators.

RTS on the basis of bidding on Tuesday rose to 1260.56 points (0.95%, the previous maximum was reached on September 23 - 1254.31 points), the MICEX index rose to 1,212.75 points (0.38%); cost of most chips on the stock exchanges increased by 0,2-3,8%.

Futures on RTS Index fell to the underlying asset at 15.6 points, which suggests a moderately negative expectations of speculators.

On MICEX grew up in the price of shares VTB (RTS: VTBR) (1,1% on MICEX), Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) (1,6% and 3,8% in RTS), Sberbank of Russia (RTS: SBER) (0,7%), Tatneft (RTS: TATN) (3,8%), Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) (0,7%), Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS ) (1.7%).

cheaper paper Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) (-0,6% on MICEX), Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) (-1%), Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) (-0, 7%), Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) (-0,6%).

Most of the trades on Tuesday, European indices rose on data for business and consumer confidence in the euro-zone economy in September, were better than expectations (an index of confidence rose to its highest level since September 2008 and reached 82,8 points, the experts expect growth to 82 , 7 points). Final figures for UK GDP for the second quarter coincided with the expectations of analysts: evaluation of reduction in GDP has been changed to 0,6% compared with the revised index of 0,7%.

U.S. data, released in the evening proved to be heteropolar. Market support provided statistics on the cost of housing in 20 major U.S. cities - an index of SP /Case-Shiller fell in July to 13.3% on an annualized basis, which is the minimum reduction of 17 months, while experts expect a decrease by 14,2%.

However, data on consumer confidence in U.S. economy disappointed investors (Consumer Confidence Index in September fell to 53.1 points in the growth forecasts up to 57 points), which affected the dynamics of world share platforms. European indexes to 18:45 IST reduced growth to 0,1%, the indices in the U.S. dipped 0,1-0,3%.

Oil on Tuesday evening went up to $ 67 per barrel WTI on the background of optimism about rising demand for fuel in improving the prospects for restoring the U.S. economy.

Price

November futures contracts for WTI crude oil to 18:45 on Tuesday was $ 66.97 per barrel (0.2%).

opens on Tuesday at an investment forum Russia is calling!, organized by VTB Capital, made a number of statements by Russia's monetary authorities, but little optimism they have not caused.

According to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, Russia's banks during the period of the crisis have received additional infusions of capital in support of the state of $ 40 billion over the medium term, however, the state will reduce its stake in VTB, increased during the crisis . Kudrin also said that the finance ministers' group of twenty disagree about the prospects of world economy and the pace of its withdrawal from the crisis. Part of the finance ministers assess the situation more positively, they feel that emerged from the recession and growth will be sustainable. The other part believes that there is a risk of second floor , although now they say that it is not inevitable, - Kudrin said.

According to first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev, the Central Bank will continue to increase freedom of rate fixing on the interbank market, and the current level of exchange rates does not threaten Russia's producers. He believes that Russia's economy has passed the lower point drop in production and lending in May this year, but in the foreseeable future there is scope for further interest rate cuts (from 30 September CBR refinancing rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points - up to 10% per annum) .

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the Government intends to create additional incentives for mergers and consolidation of Russia's banks, plans to reduce inflation from 12% in 2009 to 5-7% in 2012, and intends to develop the domestic market securities at the expense of infrastructure bonds, ensuring reliable guarantees.

According to the analyst VTB 24 (RTS: GUTB) Stanislav Kleshchev, while serious investors are seeking investment objects in Russia and take part in an investment forum Russia calls and speculators continue to chase stock quotes in the absence of major drivers for traffic in one direction or another. Oil, the main indicator of well-being in Russia's stock market may not rise significantly from the levels achieved on the eve of support, respectively, and the growth of Russia's oil stocks since the beginning of the week is hardly supported by a corresponding dynamics in commodity platforms. So, after a speculative rise will inevitably be followed by profit-taking, notes the analyst.

Kleshchev also drew attention to the sale appeared in the sector shares of VTB Kudrin, following a statement that in the medium term, the state will reduce its stake in the capital of VTB. In general, reasons for excessive optimism in the market until there is no, so it makes more sense to fix the speculative profit on open positions, he said.

As noted analyst at Aton Natalia Vygodina, the MICEX index during intraday decline has tested the strength of support at 1,200 points, but managed to hold above. The nearest resistance is located at 1220 and 1240 points, support - 1200 and 1175 points. On Wednesday, the final value of expected changes in U.S. GDP for the second quarter of this year. It is expected that the value of GDP would be at minus 1.2% (past value - minus 1%).

portfolio manager at IFC Option Vladimir Bachurin believes that the volatility this week may increase, given the factor of the end of the month, as well as numerous economic statistics in Europe and the United States. Therefore, caution is recommended that speculators and hedge their risks by using futures and options, the expert noted.

According to leading analyst IF Olma Anton Startsev, in global markets, including raw materials, there is a lull, which explains the low activity of buyers and Russia's stock markets - the high demand persists in only a few papers, such as shares of banks, that can improve conditions to attract capital by reducing the refinancing rate of the CBR. Demand and network shares of companies that may soon move to a new scheme for calculating tariffs (RAB). These technical analysis point to the possibility of a period of consolidation on the RTS index, he believes.

According to the analyst IK Finans-Invest Stanislav Savinov, a signal for readiness to repeat the highs since the beginning of the year will be the consolidation of the MICEX Index above the 1,229 points mark. In general, the next two days, apparently, be expected to continue the commitment to consolidation in the shrinking range until the final assessment of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter, data on the number of job cuts in the private sector from ADP, as well as the end of the fiscal year in the United States believes he.

According to analyst company BKS Express Dmitry Savchenko, there are big doubts in overcoming highs in the U.S. market on Tuesday or Wednesday, so in these days the growth of the MICEX Index will be severely limited. In particular, the mark of 1,220 points on the MICEX is very difficult, he believes.

indices in the U.S. on Monday, rose against the backdrop of a number of notable transactions in mergers and acquisitions (MA), their rise was the highest in 5 weeks.

pharmaceutical company Abbot Laboratories announced the acquisition of the pharmaceutical division of the Belgian Solvay SA for $ 7.1 billion, Xerox bought Affiliated Computer Services Inc. for $ 6.4 billion, Johnson Johnson has agreed to acquire 18% shares of Crucell for 301.8 million euros.

volume of mergers and acquisitions involving U.S. companies in September was $ 49.1 billion compared with $ 26.6 billion in August and $ 36.8 billion in July, data showed Bloomberg.

Asian stock markets rose Tuesday after oil and high-tech companies, investors believe that the drop to a minimum of two weeks was excessive.

In the second tier on the MICEX on Tuesday were the best performing stocks MRSC of North Caucasus (RTS: MRKK) (16,5%), RBC Information Systems (RTS: RBCI) (9,6%) , IDC Center and Volga Region (8,6%), IDC Holding (7,7%), Mechel (RTS: MTLR) (7,6%), bank Revival (RTS: VZRZ) ( 6,1%).

shares had declined AvtoVAZ (RTS: AVAZ) (-2,6%), Volgatelekoma (RTS: NNSI) (-2,4%).

total volume of shares traded on the RTS Classic Market for the day totaled $ 12.55 million in Section RTS Standard turnover reached $ 250.53 million, on the MICEX exchange transaction volume has exceeded 63.147 billion rubles (leaders - ordinary shares of Sberbank - 22.89 billion rubles).

Analyst forecasts: The lateral movement of Russia's indexes remain before the statistic data from overseas
Putin called for the liberalization of the domestic gas market, which is positive for the shares of Gazprom and Novatek
Analysts expect mixed opening of Russia's share platforms
Trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange on Tuesday totaled 100.8 billion rubles
Better the market today may look like the action of vertically-integrated steel companies
External background is moderately negative for the market of Russia, America has closed a slight decrease, Asia is trading down
Latin America: Brazilian developers have taken the brunt themselves
Kommersant: The Exchange walked bulls
Growth in consumer confidence in the UK in September was the highest since 1995

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