The stock market of Russia completed a week before the fall of 1175 points on the MICEX on the weak statistics from the U.S.
Oct 3rd, 2009 | By admin | Category: Scenario and forecastsstock market of Russia completed a week before the fall of 1175 points on the MICEX on the background of negative dynamics of world share platforms, which was reinforced by weak data from the U.S. labor market.
The results of the auctions on Friday the MICEX index dropped to 1175.83 points (-2.94%), the RTS index dropped to 1224.8 points (-3.32%), core chips have fallen in price on the stock exchanges on 0, 1-7,4%.
Futures on the RTS index to closing the session down to the underlying asset at 23.8 points, indicating that the negative expectations of players.
Week
MICEX index fell by 1%, RTS index - on 0,04%.
On Friday, shares fell Gazprom (-2.8%on MICEX), Lukoil (-2.9%), Norilsk Nickel (-5.3% and -6% in RTS), Rostelecom (-4.6%), Rosneft (-3% and -7.4% in RTS), Gazprom Neft (-1,4%), Surgutneftegaz (-4,1%), Tatneft (-3.7%), Sberbank of Russia (-2.3%), Polyus Gold (-0,1%).
grew up VTB shares (0.9%, to 5.67 kopeks).
European indexes to 18:45 on Friday, lost about 1%, U.S. indexes by this time have demonstrated mixed dynamics within 0,2-0,3%.
Published at 16:30 data from the U.S. labor market were worse than expected (number of jobs in September fell by 263 thousand in the forecast decline of 175 thousand) which sparked a local increase sales, because of what the MICEX index dropped below 1150 points.
However, the shares collapse proved to be short-lived, as players rushed to close the short position against the backdrop of the ensuing down the dollar, because then began to rise in the price of oil (WTI futures fell to $ 68.3 per barrel, and then returned to district $ 70 per barrel).
Unemployment in the United States in September rose to 9.8% compared to 9,7% a month earlier to coincide with the expectations of analysts.
Left at 18:00
data on the volume of orders by U.S. industries in August were worse than expected (orders fell by 0.8%, while experts do not expect changes), but sharply negative reaction of markets followed.
The November WTI crude oil to the closing auction in Russia on Friday, cost $ 69.79 per barrel (-1.5%).
As the head of analytical department IF Olma Vladimir Detinich, data on activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector (index of ISM Manufacturing) and car sales were worse than forecast - economic statistics are not yet fully justifies the expectations that were laid down in share prices . Weak statistics has become an occasion to some reassessment of risks in global markets, but of the collapse of global liquidity speech so far there is, rather, there is a technical correction downward. The Friday data on the U.S. labor market were much weaker than forecasts, which became an occasion to deepen the downward correction in global equity markets. According to technical analysis, close to the level of 1200 points on the RTS can be found support, but in case of continued deterioration in the external background correction may be deeper down, and on Russia's securities, he said.
Such opinion analyst at VTB 24 Stanislav Kleshchev, thinks that despite the decline, nothing dramatic has happened - not rolled out beyond what side views, which is observed in Russia's stock market since mid-September.
According to the analyst Promsvyazbank Oleg steps to reduce global markets in early October, in response to published in the early months of macroeconomic statistics, shook investors' confidence in the stability prevailing in Russia's stock market growing trend. The MICEX index, which in August-September, added about 20% on a wave of optimism caused by the stabilization of the situation and the signs of growth in the domestic economy, at the end of last week, went to the decrease in the maximum rate for the last three months. Despite the fact that the tide of liquidity in global financial markets are still contributing to high prices of assets, the situation does not seem stable and can change dramatically in the context of a probable future outflow of liquidity from the markets, he said.
Steps recalled that in late September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a reduction of certain loan programs, introduced earlier in the urgency of the crisis, and can not be excluded that the Fed ahead of fighting inflation, would make quite aggressive curtailing its other programs and will go to higher interest rates. This, apparently, will help to drain liquidity from the world financial markets and is likely to trigger a slowdown or decline in commodity and stock assets, the analyst believes.
According to analyst at Aton Natalia Vygodinoy, the resumption of growth in oil prices from a technical point of view seems improbable. Apparently, before once again testing support at $ 66 per barrel. The MICEX Index on Friday found support around 1150 points, from which there was a local rebound, however, judging by the daily chart, next week may continue to decrease the level of 1120 points.
analyst at IFC Alemar Basil Konuzin noted that the weakness of the U.S. labor market is one of the key threats to the recovery of consumer demand in the United States and, accordingly, the restoration of the world's leading economies.
negative impact on the markets have also had comments of head FRS the USA Ben Bernanke on Thursday in the stability of the dollar and its status as a reserve currency. Bernanke said that if the monetary authorities will not be able to fix the macro-economy, the dollar will come under attack, which is a serious threat to long-term stability. The outcome of my head of the Federal Reserve has increased the outflow of capital from risky assets in favor of quality, which resulted in diminishing returns of benchmark ten-US Treasuries (up to 3.15% per annum).
In Russia market Konuzin drew attention to the paper Polyus Gold, which are supported by the company announced ambitious plans to double gold production in 2013 compared to 2009. An additional factor in favor of shares in Polyus could become and the growing interest of investors in protective assets, that is, to the most gold.
Head of Research Division FC infinitesimal Alexander Ivanishchev believes that if we continue to reduce the index of SP 500 will be profitable short position.
Among the possible reasons for the decline of the U.S. market before you can note the influence of seasonality factor: fiscal year ended, the price recorded in the reports, the game can start with a new sheet. Conflicting economic data and some disappointment on the occasion of the participants over a slow exit from recession provoked speculators to play a more active on sale. In case of further lowering the index of SP 500 will become profitable short position, and their volume will increase. Otherwise, the speculators come back into play in length. Thus, speculators have prepared for a fresh start, and today's data on the labor market became crucial in the choice of further motion vector, he said.
indices in the United States before the demonstrated most noticeable over the last three months of decline, rollback was due to poor data on the labor market and a weak manufacturing activity in the United States.
number of primary applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 17 thousand - up to 551 thousand, experts predicted an increase of 5 thousand
Increasing unemployment and the downsizing of government measures to stimulate economic growth could limit the rise of the U.S. economy next year, experts believe the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the IMF forecast, the U.S. GDP in the next year will increase by 1.5% after declining by 2.7% this year.
index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. (ISM Manufacturing) in September unexpectedly fell to 52.6 points compared with 52.9 points a month earlier, the experts expect growth to 54 points. Despite the drop in the last month, business activity in the U.S. increased for the second consecutive month. In August ISM Manufacturing index exceeded 50 points for the first time since January 2008.
bad statistic data provoke fears of investors that the recent rally in the markets is not justified by the prospects of economic recovery.
end of government programs to support auto industry cash-for-clunkers ( cash-for-avtohlam) could trigger a sharpdrop in sales of new cars. In September, after completion of the sale of auto company in the United States has declined by 23%.
Stock Indexes in Asia also fell on Friday, composite index MSCI Asia Pacific region has collapsed to a minimum for the month, as shares of automakers and mining companies have fallen in price because of fears that economic recovery will slow.
Among second-tier on the MICEX exchange on Friday, leaders of falling were shares of RBC Information Systems (-7.7%), TGK-13 (-6%), MRSC of North Caucasus (-5,8% ), Severstal (-5.5%), FGC UES (-5.4%).
RBC shares fell on Thursday on news of the filing of the bankruptcy proceedings Raiffeisenbank company. However, the bank itself said on Thursday that talks on debt restructuring RBC and hopes for their successful completion - in this case the claim bankruptcy RBC will be revoked.
grew up shares RTM (4%), TGK-2 (3.7%).
total volume of shares traded on the RTS Classic Market for the day totaled $ 15.73 million in Section RTS Standard turnover reached $ 364.749 million, on the MICEX exchange transaction volume has exceeded 67.54 billion rubles (leaders - ordinary shares of Sberbank - 22.864 billion rubles. ).
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