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The crisis on the pharmaceutical market is just beginning

Oct 14th, 2009 | By admin | Category: Scenario and forecasts

 

If we consider the situation on Russia's pharmaceutical market as a whole, focusing on makrotrend, then the prospects are very bright. Adds optimism the confidence of power. In particular, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin stated that in general, Russia's economy has adapted to today's conditions. Thus, the trade balance remains positive, given that in March 2009 was the bottom of the drop in energy prices. In the second half of 2009 surplus will reach an even larger amount. The budget for 2009 is calculated based on the price of oil at 41 dollars per barrel, as the basis for the budget for the next few years laid a conservative scenario.'ll calculate the best, but assume the worst.

Today, oil costs more than $ 70 per barrel. Surplus income from one sold a barrel - more than $ 30 but significantly decreased the absolute value of sales of Russia's oil: from January to July this year sales of crude oil amounted to 49.5 billion dollars (for comparison: 103 billion dollars over the same period in 2008). The most optimistic forecasts of experts, to reach pre-crisis indicators can be no earlier than two years.

In May 2009 started to increase Russia's international reserve assets. Strengthening of the ruble is connected with this key. Petroleum rises in price at an artificially created reasons; surplus revenue is directed, primarily, to the diversification of risk - in reserve assets in foreign currencies, SDRs, gold and other reserves.

The increase in economic activity and growth of national reserves - a good marker that the government's social obligations will be fulfilled in full. Moreover, further growth will consider the prospect of launching new programs of social guarantees, including in the health system.

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As the stabilization of the situation an increasing number of participants of the stock market will pay attention to less visible Paper
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