Stock market of Russia entrenched on Friday above 1200 points on the MICEX index, the leaders of growth energy
Sep 19th, 2009 | By admin | Category: Scenario and forecastsRussia stock market finished a week above the psychological mark of 1,200 points on the MICEX index, support for the bulls had a positive dynamics of world share platforms; growth leaders on Friday began the paper energy on news of imminent passage of a number of companies on the system of tariff-RAB, as well as expectations growth rates from 2010.
The results of the auctions on Friday the MICEX index are omitted in the morning below 1190 points, rose to 1208.35 points (0.27%), the RTS index rose to 1,245.56 points (1.15%), core chips on exchanges went up by 0,1-5,6%.
Last week MICEX index rose by 2,8%, RTS index - on 4,1%.
Futures on the RTS index to closing of the auctions on Friday fell to the underlying asset at 7.4 points, which suggests a moderately negative expectations of the players.
top gainers among the blue chips are shares VTB (5.6%, to 5.71 kopeks), previously lagging in the growth of the Savings Bank of Russia and now offsetting the gap.
increases in the prices Gazprom shares (0.5% on the MICEX exchange), LUKoil (1%), Rosneft (0.1%), Surgutneftegaz (1.9%), Polyus Gold (0,1%), Transneft (4,1%).
The minus were paper Norilsk Nickel (-0.4%), Sberbank of Russia (-2.5%), Tatneft (-1.1%), Gazprom Neft (-2.2 %).
European indexes opened lower on Friday, the day has already played and lost in the evening came in the positive region (the FTSE rose by 0,2%), American indexes to 18:45 IST also showed a growth of 0,1-0, 3%.
limiting factor for growth on Friday appeared cheapened oil, as investors sold off contracts to lock in profits after the price of oil topped $ 73 a barrel this week.
Since September 1, WTI crude oil futures traded in a price channel at $ 67 to $ 73 a barrel. Futures price for WTI crude oil for November on Friday fell by 0,5% and amounted to $ 72,57 per barrel. Since the beginning of 2009 oil prices went up by more than 60%.
According to the analyst IK Finans-Invest Stanislav Savinov, local market bounce up on Friday is likely to be replaced by a new reversal in the future. In a post below 1200 points on the MICEX index next level of support may be 1175 points, he said.
analyst company Aton Natalia Vygodina believes that consolidation of the MICEX Index finished the week above 1,200 points mark giving the market a positive signal for further expansion. The closest resistance are located in the 1240 and 1300, the next support levels are located at 1150 and 1130 points.
As analyst Promsvyazbank Oleg Steps, better than the market in the week looked VTB shares, UTair, Pharmstandard and UES FGC, which grew by 15-20%. Stock quotes VTB grown against positive corporate news and recommendations on improving these shares a number of investment banks. Rise of stock price UTair contributed information on the successful implementation by the update program of fleet and the acquisition of four medium-range aircraft Boeing-737. By the end of the total number of these aircraft in the park the airline will reach 16, and UTair will become one of the largest of their operators in Russia. Shares Pharmstandard were the leaders of growth on news of mergers and acquisitions.
In general support to the market has spent the Central Bank of Russia reduced the refinancing rate and other key money market rates, as well as voiced their further hints of fall. This led to expectations of improving financial results Russia's banks and increasing the volumes of consumer lending, making favorites of the week growth indices of financial and consumer sectors. Been noted selective demand for shares of electricity companies was due to past government of Russia to discuss prospects of development of the industry and the project's investment power for the next year, believes steps.
According to chief of analytical department of IF Olma Vladimir Detinicha, a neutral external background and the lack of Friday the publication of important macroeconomic statistics in the west did not allow traders to push MICEX index below the 1,190 points. Nevertheless, while preserving the local market is overheated likelihood corrective movement to 1170-1180 points on the MICEX, he said.
Head of Research Division FC infinitesimal Alexander Ivanishchev also still believes that the overheated market needed relaxation. The dollar has stopped falling in the moment, which adversely affects, including raw material markets. While the presence of ideas of the second tier provides a good signal, and the reduction of shares will have plenty of buyers. However, for full correction of motion and then entering the top should go up to 1170 -1180 points on the MICEX, - he believes.
Expert
company BKS Express Dmitry Savchenko believes that we can expect scrapping the two-week trend of the MICEX index and its reduction in area of 1150-1160 points.
By the end of the week the situation on Russia's stock market deteriorated significantly. Substantial trade turnover, the past in the past two days at MICEX, confirmed our assumption that some big players started profit taking. Sovereign spread (the difference between the yields of government securities and U.S. RF eurobonds) rose for the first time in the last five trading sessions. Changes have taken place on foreign markets: the dollar temporarily suspended the decline in U.S. stock market showed signs of correction. In case of increase of these negative trends can be expected to break up a two-week trend on the MICEX index and its reduction in area 1150-1160 items continue to the August 1130 maximum points. The probable time to achieve these objectives - the middle of next week, that is before the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh. Perhaps it is up to the summit of the past will be resolved the fate of the trend of the MICEX index. It is not deleted version with support at a minimum of 19 August - 1013 points - believes Savchenko.
According to the asset manager of the company Pilgrim Asset Management Vladimir Levchenko, rally to bear market, or close to completion, or has already ended.
All of that fight happened. All the world's authorities have already declared victory over the crisis - long live the sequel! degree of leverage at the positions of the five biggest U.S. banks have again reached the maximum levels to an average of 1 to 30, ie is the same as in 2007. SuperNova financial economy as never divorced from reality. The demand for any asset is formed only way out of the dollar. For the first time in many years, we see the carry trade in yen against the dollar, but only at very short notice. Credit compression, meanwhile, is continuing, that is due to lack of demand for credit due to lack of final demand from consumers. You get the feeling that some of the top five U.S. banks will be sacrificed, because all the look in one direction, but no final demand. There is not even the illusion of this demand, as it was from 2005 to 2008. There is only a desire to restore the illusion of demand. But that does not go far, and very similar to what has already come, - he said.
only excite asset, according to Levchenko, in the current situation remains the gold. Of course, the collapse of carry trade, we will see some pressure on prices filthy lucre, but such moments, I would use to buy. Accordingly, the current levels I would use for the complete elimination of the position of the shares, - he added.
indices in the U.S. on the eve of adjusted down to 0,1-0,3% due to investor concern that the recent rally in the market is not supported by good prospects for corporate profits.
bad accounting, Oracle and FedEx leveled a good statistic data of the primary applications for unemployment benefits and production activity in the district of Philadelphia.
second tier on the MICEX on Friday, shares fell KAMAZ (-3.6%), Sibirtelecom (-3,4%), bank Revival (-3%), Polymetal (-- 2,6%).
increases in the prices shares Mosenergo (15,6%), Belon (8.5%), Inter RAO UES (7,8%), OGK-4 (6.3%), OGK-5 (5,4%), FSK UES (5%), PIK (2,6%).
Shares peak grew up on news about the state guarantees on loans in Sberbank and VTB. Provision of state guarantees on Thursday approved a commission chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. PIK and ZAO PIK-Region will get guarantees totaling $ 14.375 billion rubles, Saturn - 10 billion rubles.
Shares FSK UES rising on news of the likely increase by more than 30% of tariff for the transportation of electricity over networks of FGC in 2010. This growth rate takes into account the transition to the new system FSK tariff RAB. According to the head of the Federal Tariff Service of Russia Sergey Novikov, all distribution network companies can switch to a system of RAB (Rates calculated on the basis of norms of repayment of the invested capital) for two years.
In addition, the market is awaiting a decision from the Ministry of Energy on energy prices in 2010. According to the Minister of Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko, formerly known as the growth rate in 2010 of 5% has been forecast, and taking into account the factors that contributed generating companies, the growth rate will be slightly higher.
total volume of shares traded on the RTS classic market on Friday was $ 9.47 million in Section RTS Standard turnover reached $ 277.07 million, on the MICEX exchange transaction volume exceeded 72.3 billion rubles (leaders - ordinary shares of Sberbank - 21.753 billion rubles).
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