fall of industrial production in May 2009 in relation to the same month last year, according to Rosstat, accelerated to a record 17.1% from 16.9% in April. But commenting on the statistics for the last month, some experts and government officials said that the bottom had been reached even then, in May, many were expecting improvement. Still, assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Arkady Dvorkovich believes that such a strong decline in promproizvodstva last month may be due to the fact that in May this year, simply proved less working days than in May 2008. And one extra day off, he said, gives a decline of up to 3 items

There are also optimists among analysts. Some experts believe that now is certainly falling promproizvodstva reached its bottom. If you compare the monthly dynamics, the results of last month were slightly better than the average for 2004-2008. - Comments the Director of Analytical Department, Bank of Moscow Kirill Tremasov. In May, industrial output declined by only 2.1% compared with April (the previous monthly decline was 8.1%).

dynamics of industrial production,% month to month

* - The average for 2004-2008.

Sources: Rosstat, Analytical Department of the Bank of Moscow

A total of five months of this year industrial production fell by 15.4% compared with January-May 2008, which, according to Cyril Tremasova, practically coincides with the results for the same period of 2005. And by the end of the year, according to analysts, the industry should recover to the levels of 2006 and then on the basis of the fall of 2009 will be about 10%.

Experts note some improvement in the manufacturing industry, which in May showed declines at 23.7% compared to last spring months of 2008, while the April decline was 25.1%. In particular, the observations of Mr. Tremasova, revival demonstrated metallurgy - average daily production of rolled products increased by 4,6%, which, he said, actually means a return to the level of March (in April declined to 4.4%). Chief Economist of Alfa-Bank's Natalya Orlova noticed an improvement in the construction and transport sectors. Reduction of the construction sector has stabilized at approximately 19% Year-to-year. Russian railways recently reported slowing traffic to fall 24.9% year-to-year, five months of 2009 from 27,4% in January-April , - said Ms. Orlova. The Economist considers the data a sign of stabilization of the fall of Russia's GDP. But a quick economic recovery, all these signals do not guarantee, she adds.

However, some manufacturing industries are still in a catastrophic situation. At the very least, to talk about stabilization in the domestic automotive, according to experts, it is too early. In May, it produced only 47 thousand new cars (-64% year to year), compared with 60 thousand in April. To reduce the volume of issuance of automakers led the decline of sales of new cars (in May at 57.5% year to year).

In addition, lower than in April, were indicators of the mining sector. His drop in May was 3.4% against the same month last year (in April decline was 1.8%). The deterioration of the dynamics comes from the reduction in gas production (in the fall of 28,7% as compared to May 2008), which is largely associated with a decline in demand for it from external customers. However, according to a leading economist, Renaissance Capital Sharipova Helena, in the coming months, demand for gas will be restored following the improvements in the oil sector, and by the end of summer extractive sector will be plus.

In optimistic scenario, predicted Ms. Sharipova, decline in industrial production would drop to minus 10% in June (compared to the same month in 2008). And by year's end the situation, according to experts, may have somewhat improved. However, to withdraw from minus this year promproizvodstvu, however, is unlikely to succeed. Bottom-then we have made, - said the expert. - The question is, how long will recover. At the end of the year experts expect promproizvodstva fall by 10%.

In turn, analyst IK Energocapital Alexander Ignatiuk warns that if the fall will be the second wave of crisis in the financial sector, it certainly would have a detrimental impact on the industrial sector. Even more credit contraction and the effect on demand, and industry - said the expert. - Companies can not afford to invest in equipment, which now offers both industry needs. However, analysts believe that even if a second wave of the crisis will not promproizvodstvo still not restored by the end of this year. A similar opinion and analysts IC Grandis Capital. Recovery, they said, do not expect before 2010, so as long as that demand is not growing, while lending in the country actually is minimized.

Top events affecting Russian market

 

 

 

NOTE:

1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with A-rated events with top D on our scale, have little influence.

2. Sections Macroeconomics and commodity markets in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating the previous day.
3. Arrow down in the column 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow up - the positive /neutral.

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