As expected us in the preceding analysis, the key for the currency pair USD /CAD mark to determine the subsequent short-term movement, was the level of 1,04. In early December, quotes values reached 1.0432, but this was followed by roll back upstairs, which was the maximum point level of 1.0746.

 

The couple, however, lacked the strength to complete the formation of our earlier figures indicated a "double bottom" and at the same time achieving the level of Fibonacci 1.0823 (Fig. 1) and quotes after the fixation of short-term peak again went down, breaking the mark with the Fibonacci 1, 0588and short-term support level 1.04, which, along with the lower level bands Bollinzhera has now become the main short-term resistance level.

 

In early January, couple came very close to the lower level of Fibonacci 1.0209, which currently is the main level of support. On the bands Bollinzhera while you can observe a tendency to narrowing that can talk about the consolidation of a pair of values around 1.04.

 

Fig. 1 - The dynamics of the currency pair USD /CAD

Source: Reuters

Other indicators we have considered the whole signal short-term downward motion (Fig. 2). Thus, the line is above the DX-DX, while the line itself ADX indicates a very weak trend, which, however, compared with the beginning of December has become stronger.

 

Indicator slope of the linear regression is below the zero mark and has not predisposed to increase. Relative Strength Index RSI is sufficiently close to the oversold zone, suggesting the potential for further upward movement of a pair.

 

Lines of the stochastic oscillator does not give any clear signal.

 

Fig. 2 - Technical indicators for the currency pair USD /CAD

 

Source: Reuters

 

Thus, one of the key, in our opinion, the level on the basis of which it is possible to assume a further short-term movement of a pair, at the moment is still a mark of 1.04, which is also near the middle line and bands Bollinzhera.

 

In the case of a penetration value of 1.04, as well as midline Bollinzhera and closing of the trading session above this value, you can expect from the quotations of motion to the level of Fibonacci 1.0588 and the upper line Bollinzhera. Thus, ideally, we examined indicators of technical analysis should give a signal to buy.

 

If you continue the pair down a key level of support will be important Fibonacci 1.0209, closing below which within one or several trading sessions in a row can lead to a currency pair USD /CAD parity, observed recently in mid-2008 (Fig. 3) . Thus, ideally, we examined indicators of technical analysis should give a signal to sell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig. 3 - Dynamics of the currency pair USD /CAD since 2008

 

 

Source: Reuters

 

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