Easing tensions in the money market, which is accompanied by ongoing U.S. Treasury auctions on placing UST, yesterday once again supported the exchange rate Euro to U.S. dollar.

Nevertheless, these macroeconomic statistics, received yesterday at the disposal of investors, does not seem to contribute to the sustainable conservation of relatively favorable situation in the credit segment in the coming weeks.

According to the beige book The Fed released on Wednesday, in April and May, TG regional banks, the Federal Reserve said that despite improvements in the dynamics of market expectations, meaningful activity in improving the American economy since the beginning of 2009 did not happen. One of the most important cause of this situation, it seems, is still difficult situation in the commercial real estate. According to the information given Fed, the volume of proposals for this segment of real estate business is still growing in many regions of America. In doing so, developers are experiencing difficulties in financing new projects.

As noted in the June beige book, most of the economic areas of the U.S. show stable or low level of activity in credit. This situation is clearly growing at a rally liquidity segment on the highly risky assets, and notes at the same time with a significant increase in rates trezheriz and long-term mortgage bonds of the United States. Politics loan money to stimulate the expansion of Fed, apparently, to stabilize the financial markets, has enabled the world economy to avoid a credit collapse. However, at this time continued strong monetary expansion of the Fed is likely to be perceived by the market, primarily as a growth factor of long-term inflationary risks.

In this regard, in the coming months, Fed, it seems, will gradually change its policies and rhetoric in favor of the revitalization of containment of inflationary fears the market. The development of such a situation, given the growing fiscal instability of the periphery of the EU, creating in this remarkable run, the potential outcome of the devaluation of the euro, including - for the U.S. currency.

From the macroeconomic data, released yesterday, it should be noted, first of all, the statistics of the U.S. trade balance for April TG, were slightly worse than expected on the market. The value of this indicator amounted to - $ 29.1 billion against the average forecast and the value of the index in the previous month, equal to, respectively, - $ 28.8 billion and - $ 28.53 billion It is unlikely that this information could have a significant impact on the dynamics of quotations FX. On the one hand, the medium-term trend of improving the balance of trade of America, in this case, obviously, has not changed. On the other - as has been demonstrated in recent quarters - a situation in foreign trade in other major economies of the world shows a fairly stable weakening.

It is also worth noting that, according to the information already present, Japanese GDP for the first quarter of 2009 showed somewhat less significant than most experts predicted decline. The value of this indicator proved equal to -14.2% (g /g) against the average expected value of specialists, is -14.9%. However, the level of the index in the previous quarter was revised down to -15.2% (g /g) compared to -14.4% ranee.-14, and 4% earlier. The deteriorating situation in the national finances and the economy pushes the corporate and the private sector to revitalize Japan's investments in foreign markets. However, according to Japanese statistics of international capital movements, investors in that country, apparently failed to take meaningful participation in the May rally in the market on high-risk assets, and now, given the increased market risks may take on this segment of the investment fence. Perhaps the expected weakening yen rate, at least - to the European currencies in the coming weeks premature.