prepared draft state budget-2010 at the rate of 7,5 UAH.per dollar, the government has made it clear that it intends to make every effort to ensure that support the national currency. In unison, the Cabinet and NBU said: natsbankovskie officials expect that the value of U.S. currency on the interbank market should return to the level 7,98-8,14 grn. /$.

Government will support the hryvnia?

in the budget bill an average exchange rate of the head of government believes not only realistic, but even moderate. Looking for a few months ahead, Yulia Tymoshenko promised Ukrainians a sharp strengthening of national currency. This course - 7,5 UAH. /$ - Overstated. And right after the presidential election will be a stable hryvnia. Because there is no economic justification for those scoffing at the national currency, which holds National Bank of Ukraine, - she said at the beginning of this week, incidentally promised immediately after the election to dismiss the entire top NBU arranged for currency slides.

The government does not conceal the fact that the policy of revaluation approved by the International Monetary Fund: All the basic parameters laid down in the draft budget, it is the same as agreed with the IMF's macroeconomic indicators spelled out in the recently revised program of cooperation. An indirect confirmation of the agreements of the Cabinet and international lenders to strengthen the hryvnia could and the IMF agreed to empower the National Bank to hold foreign exchange intervention. The updated edition of the Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies of the Ukrainian authorities, approved by the country in cooperation with the Fund, the forecast gross reserves at the end of the year improved to $ 29.311 billion to $ 30 billion Based on these calculations, the National Bank can afford to hold until the end of the intervention in the amount of $ 1.31 billion

At the same time, announcing a policy of revaluation, government officials have hinted that there will descent to those who will play at lowering the hryvnia. We counted the budget to give a positive signal to the market, - said Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Matviichuk. But financial experts admit that the current signal may again prove to be false, and most likely he does not entail any real steps to stabilize the currency market. The market would remain neutral, since the summer were signals that a realistic level for the hryvnia exchange rate is 6-6,5 /$. But they were not supported by real actions of the Government and National Bank of Ukraine, - stressed the head of the analysis of financial markets, ING Bank, Alexander Pecheritsyn.

According to experts, one of the principal factors that could be the key to the stability of the course - ending speculation on the currency market. In many ways movements of the dollar - is the impact of speculative games that are very proactive in our market. If the government can neutralize these speculative game, then it will be no devaluation of the hryvnia problem, and vice versa - will be the task of preventing the hryvnia revaluation below 7, 5 UAH. , - considers adviser to the chairman of the Board Ukrgazbanka Alexander Okhrimenko. The first steps in this direction have already been made.

According to Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, the senior officials NBU opened a criminal case. In particular, he is charged with carrying out large-scale fraud in the refinancing of financial establishments and conduct foreign exchange auctions. First deputy head NBU Anatoly Shapovalov last week had already been under interrogation by the police.

With regard to the current capacity of the central bank intervention on the commission, they are all still limited, despite the IMF provided a handicap. Therefore, the exchange rate may not only be strengthened to 7,5 UAH. /$, But again show a downward momentum. National Bank reserves are not really so much.'s Own reserves of the NBU (excluding IMF loans) at end-September amounted to $ 18.3 billion, taking into account the trenches IMF - $ 28.9 billion before the end of its own reserves of the NBU should be no less than $ 14 , 9 billion or an average monthly NBU can spend $ 850 million in September, this limit was raised to $ 1 billion, since the central bank received a further infusion of the IMF's quota allocation. This will stabilize the dollar in September, but in the following months these resources may not be enough to keep the dollar in the country is not above the level of 8,50 UAH ./$, - explained the Head of Information #57348; analytical center Forex Club Nikolay Ivchenko. At the same time, attempts to strengthen the hryvnia to the level of 7,5-8 grn. The dollar has already require much greater resources, the strengthening of the course will entail an increase imports and increase the trade deficit, - supplemented colleague senior analyst at investment firm Phoenix Capital Andrew Nesteruk .

loosening of the course will also help increase demand for hard currency at the end of the current and next year. Thus, the end of 2009 debt to foreign creditors of the real and the banking sector should reach $ 1.8 billion, A Restructured liabilities is expected to maintain high demand for the currency next year. Hryvnia revaluation is necessary, but not as shock therapy. The gradual strengthening of national currency should be viewed over a longer period , - considers the head of analytical department of investment group TASK Andrew Shevchishin.

Nevertheless, analysts believe that if the political will of the National Bank still be able to for a #57348; then to hold domestic currency outlined in the Cabinet borders. Events of this year showed that only the foreign exchange interventions NBU can really affect the exchange rate. Dollar exchange rate could easily fall back to the level of UAH 8. /$, Provided that the NBU will continue the practice of holding auctions for businesses. If the auction will not be dollar exchange rate will tend to mark in 9 UAH ./$, - says Alexander Okhrimenko. Another possible lever of influence on the course could be administrative action. In 1998, one of the measures to stabilize the situation in the foreign exchange market was the introduction of compulsory sale of foreign currency by exporters. It really has been a stabilizing influence on the market. Obviously, this measure could support the currency market and now - the economist believes the investment company Concorde Capital Nikita Mikhailichenko. The bill restoring the obligation of exporters to sell half of foreign exchange earnings, the Verkhovna Rada has adopted the first reading. However idle parliament virtually impossible this document likely to be approved.

On the other hand, the ability to influence the currency market is sufficient and near the NBU. It is likely that it is now to maintain and strengthen the hryvnia exchange rate will involve measures that have already been tested during the crises of 1998 and 2004, including the imposition of limits or a ban on the purchase of foreign currency, - the deputy chairman of the board from a commercial bank. As it became known, the National Bank has already prepared a number of relevant draft decisions, which will be issued on a mountain in the near future.

But even if the office of Vladimir Stelmakh dare to resort to such drastic measures to keep the hryvnia level 7,5-8 grn. /$ he can only briefly. And one of the main obstacles to the stability of national currency may be all the same draft the country's financial estimates for next year. Officially, the state budget deficit #57348, 2010 will be at 4% of GDP, with plans for the revenue budget is clearly overstated. The true deficit is roughly twice as much, which is very dangerous for both price stability and for the hryvnia exchange rate. If the budget for 2010 year will be adopted with the published figures, it will make a significant emission hryvnia (and hence its weakening) is almost inevitable , - confident Andrew gestation. However, budgetary problems show its negative impact on the domestic currency closer to spring. Thereby making it possible to Yulia Tymoshenko's record as an asset of his campaign a successful struggle for stabilization and strengthening of the hryvnia.

Tatiana Ochimovskaya

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