NBU has taken steps to stabilize hryvnia exchange rate: banks are obliged to establish a single currency and not to change it during the day and set the limit on margin (the difference) between purchase and sale of 2%. But bankers are still confident that before the election, the course will not fall and will be, at least within 8,5-9 hryvnia for one dollar.

To reduce the demand for currency by the population, the NBU Board adopted Resolution number 538, which prohibited banks and exchangers, changing currency exchange rates during the day, as well as increase the difference between the buying and selling currency (the margin) by more than 2% . Shortly before the head NBU Vladimir Stelmach announced the plans for it into the market in September to $ 1 billion, which should also be somewhat cool ardor of speculators.

But, despite the efforts of the National Bank, a serious strengthening of the hryvnia has not happened: September 18, the average selling rate of the green on the interbank market was 8.5965, and the cash market - 8,63-8,65 hryvnia to the dollar.

What happens next - is uncertain, since the pre-election excitement will dominate the foreign exchange market and make the behavior of the hryvnia is extremely unpredictable.

can not be excluded and the interest of some political forces to use the growth of the dollar in their electoral purposes, - alone with the investigation of the scandals which are MIA! Reputation NBU has become inadequate. This leads to a devaluation, inflation, lack of faith of people in the stability of national currency, - said Deputy Minister of Finance, former deputy chairman of NBU Alexander Savchenko.

According to him, if the daily difference between the official exchange rates and the market is 5-6%, while worldwide - 0,01%, this means that every day some banks are without any effort $ 5-6 million From the beginning, the NBU has sold down its reserves by $ 8 billion, with a margin you can imagine what means were in the pockets of selected banks, - said Mr. Savchenko.

criticizing the work of the NBU and the bankers themselves. In the first half of the course has been declining evento 7,4-7,5 grn /$ 1, but now we see the growth. And so far, unfortunately, the measures taken by the National Bank is not entirely effective. I believe that before the presidential election course will be in the range 8,5-9 grn /$ 1, and after the elections, he rolled to a mark 7,5-8 grn /$ 1 - means the Deputy Chairman of the Board Finance and Credit Igor Lvov.

Moreover, there are fears that the jump course will be repeated at the end of each month. Instabilities of course will facilitate the purchase of currency Naftogaz, the demand from companies, calculated on foreign debts (the bulk of the payments to be held in the fourth quarter), and the excitement on the eve of presidential elections, - the director of analytical department of the investment company Foyil Securities Agshin Mirzazade.

Besides an important role to play people: regular rate jumps significantly to stoke demand for the currency, automatically triggering speculation and even more expensive dollar.

Given the exclusive economic factors, based on the existing balance of trade, as well as the need to repay large foreign borrowing by Ukrainian companies and banks, it is expected that in September-October the dollar will not exceed the line in 9 UAH, - said the deputy chairman of the board Diamantbank Valery Oleinik.

But if

will increase the money supply (due to the printing press), may develop and the worst-case scenario - a course dopolzet to 9,5-9,8 grn /$ 1.

Do not forget that, tempting the next tranche, the IMF demands that Ukraine is carefully work on the state budget for 2010 and other legislation: to strengthen the independence of the NBU, raise the price of gas for the population, improve the pension system and taxation system, and not inflate social wage. In other currency tranches not seen. Ahead of complex negotiations with the IMF on the allocation of the fourth tranche. In case of failure of the Fund, devaluation sentiment will grow and could provoke a sudden jump in the dollar - fears Agshin Mirzazade.

Yes, and from the National Bank will require a timely response to attempts to speculation in the market and a manifestation of panic, as well as the regular holding of foreign exchange intervention, both for borrowers and banks. Efficiency of decision-making central bank has never been high and, given the pressure on him the Interior Ministry and the approaching end of term of office of heads of NBU National Bank can not meet even our minimum expectations.

Readers - optimists!

consensus forecast of the dollar by year-end *