Earlier this week, Russia's stock market took a threat to start correcting, removing accumulated oversold due to higher oil prices and to revive the hopes that the corporate reporting season confirms the adequacy of the achieved price levels.

RTS index rose by 1.75% to 1433.75 points, MICEX - to 3.66% to 1354.24 points. Trading volumes declined slightly.

Following Friday to lead the stock indicators on the weekly chart was formed alarming signals about the likely formation of the peaks, so the events that unfolded at the Russian sites on Monday, of great interest, as could shed the light on what are the prospects for the market near future. Scarce package agenda and improve the situation on the raw areas due to a new round of weakening U.S. dollar helped lift the accumulated oversold and let the market rebound from the lower limit at the previous week, the lateral range.

level of liquidity in global financial and commodity markets are still at exorbitant values, which is reflected quite moderate any difficulties from time to time correction. So disappointing reports from General Electric and Bank of America, released on Friday, seriously did not affect the current scenario, forces, and on Monday, in fact, already been forgotten.

Investors have switched to the expectations of favorable data on the housing market, which will be published on Tuesday, and once again began to bet on continued positive corporate reporting season, which in addition to GE, Citi, and BoA was no longer significant unpleasant surprises. An additional supportive factor for Russia's stock market was also a rise in oil prices to a new peak since the beginning of the year ($ 79/barr. On the sort of WTI). After passing the mark at $ 75/barr., Opened the way to the next psychological barrier of $ 80/barr. That gave wings to buyers of oil contracts, folds from the accounts of the continued consolidation of the U.S. dollar reached near lows against the euro.

transition to a new range of oil prices substantially improve the investment attractiveness of Russia's stock market reacted on Monday that analysts JP Morgan, improved its rating to above market, recommending actions to increase the share of oil and gas companies. But the driver was not an event. After a morning shot up due to improved market conditions in foreign markets and the influence of technical factors, Bears had a counter, not wanting to put up with loss of initiative.

But in the second half of the fortune they have finally turned away, what were their reasons. Fresh portion of the quarterly reports from Hasbro, Eaton, BB T was of a generally favorable character (in Europe, previously well-reported Daimler), that he was inclined to a positive mood for upcoming publication of reports from Apple and Texas instruments. Besides information appeared on the Xinhua News Agency that the Statistical Office of China on Thursday may report it to accelerate economic growth in the III quarter from 7.9% to 9.1%. Against this backdrop, Russia's stock market gained enough upward momentum to overcome the MICEX index maximum morning and head to the upper boundary formed in the previous week lateral range.

The bestdemonstrated the dynamics of suffering in the previous two sessions of the financial sector (Micex FNL 4.59%): VTB Bank (5.08%), Sberbank (obyk. 6.51%, scion. 5.61%).

On the eve of meeting of the Board of Directors of Svyazinvest, which will be decided his fate, once again there was excitement in the shares of Rostelecom (obyk. 19.68% vaccinated. 12.74%), on the basis of which will be reorganized. Other components of the telecommunications sector (Micex TLC 4.98%) was not quite so enviable dynamics.

In the oil and gas sector (Micex OG 2.77%) were observed restrained compared with the market as a whole purchase. Better looked prefecture Transneft (6.9%) and Novatek shares (3.4%). Largest private getter of natural gas put into operation the second launch complex second stage Yurkharovskoye deposit, which will increase its production facilities for the extraction of gas from 37 to 44 billion cubic meters. m per year. Gazprom's shares (2.65%) once again looked worse than the market on the background information that the selection of gas at ESC in September decreased by 15.6% compared with a year ago that some discord with the call forecast deputy president Valery Golubev that to the top 2010 demand for gas will return to pre-crisis levels.

In the metallurgical sector (Micex MM 3.03%) in the paper's leaders remain Novolipetsk Steel (5.09%), after on Friday it became known to increase the combine steelmaking by 11% in III quarter (K /K) and the expectations of growth revenue by 20% over this period. The company, instead they were retired from the cohort of leaders of the shares of CMI (1.42%), Polyus Gold shares (5.69%) and MMC Norilsk Nickel (5.02%). The world leader in nickel, presented on Monday optimistic results on the international standards for the first half of the year - net profit significantly exceeded the forecasts of experts, the proceeds to a little guidance could not reach.

look at today's market

Tuesday will give a clear understanding of what the balance of forces bulls and bears to date on Russia's stock market. Since the beginning of trading the MICEX index, which opened with a break up, will test the upper boundary formed in the previous week, the side band (1310-1375 points). The weakness of the dollar, the next blow which struck in addition to a new surge of optimism on stock markets to the latest published minutes of meetings of the Bank of Australia, which shift the focus of the agenda with a question: Will rising interest rates in the country, when this happens, continue to push up on quotes commodity markets. Gold prices on Tuesday morning settled on the new historical maximum ($ 1066/untsiyu), the price of WTI crude oil on the sort of tested the line in the $ 80/barr.

After trading in the United States have reported better than market expectations of Apple and Texas Instruments, which, together with expectations of positive data on the real estate market: the number of launches of new homes and building permits issued (16-30) contributes to the preservation of optimistic sentiment on the stock market in the U.S. , as indicated by futures (SP 500 0.26%). Thus, the probability of passing the level of 1375 points on the MICEX index of output in the future to round 1400 points seems quite high. After a morning shot up market, probably zalyazhet in side views. Restoration activity and increased volatility can be expected with the release of quarterly reports, of which there are many scheduled today. Before the opening of trading in the United States will present its quarterly results: Bank of New York Mellon, Biogen, Caterpillar, BlackRock, DuPont, Lockheed martin, Peabody Energy, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, United Technologies, UnitedHealth, Western Union. After trading in the U.S. will report to Yahoo.

Among the upcoming statistics worth noting data on producer prices (16-30). Yesterday's statement by the FBI in New York that the holding of reverse repo transactions with dealers in the bond market in the test mode does not mean imminent translate these plans into reality, saying that the Fed from tightening monetary policy will not hurry. In Russia today, a meeting of the Board of Directors of Svyazinvest, which is expected to be approved reorganization plan on the basis of Rostelecom, which can cause a record profit in its actions.

From the macroeconomic statistics, the U.S. will determine whether Russia will complete the indexes on the day of the new annual highs
Against the background of the depletion of positive factors should expect high volatility in the stock market
Excess liquidity and prized oil does not give our market to carry out a long-awaited correction
In the short run may be a decrease quotations of Russia's currency to the dollar
Another rate reduction refinancing will result in the continuation of rally in the market of ruble-denominated debt
Since the beginning of a new week, the growth in world stock markets resumed
Prices for industrial metals in London tore up the price of gold rose to $ 1070
Forex Market. 20/10/2009
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