When even in bad seeing good

Russia

Russia's stock market trading on Friday showed a high volatility and the outcome of the day slightly lower: the RTS index has lost 0,98% and the MICEX index fell 0.74%. Trading volume on the RTS stock exchange was $ 3.21 billion, of which $ 1.89 billion were in the tools of the derivatives market, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section to gain by selling 167.1 billion, turnover in the index amounted to 84.9 billion rubles.

The star of the day was again Savings Bank (0.25% ordinary shares and preference shares 3,1%, against a background of almost a third of trading value of the MICEX), where holders of short positions, there were serious problems on the background of the mass buying of shares by foreign portfolio investors in ahead run ADR (previously it was about strategy, but until such thoughts do not receive documentary evidence).

Europe

indices of the Old World have increased by an average of 1,4%, after the statement of the G20 summit on the continuation of programs to stimulate the global economy, despite signs of recovery. I must admit the logic is interesting: a word once again at odds with the reality and the world economy is not feeling well, economists have understood this, and therefore promote prolongation of incentives, rightly fearing a sharp aggravation of the situation, or those same economists have forgotten that the best - the enemy of good, and monetary pumping will soon lead to the problems of a different nature than there are today. In short, with a light hand of regulators, the next bubble in financial markets got good.

America

indices of the New World increased by 1-1,8%, despite the announced increase in unemployment in the U.S. to 9.7%. Optimists say the economy from a slowdown in growth in the number of unemployed people and seems completely overlooked that the slowdown in the fall of anything or even stagnation, on one level, in any case does not mean the situation, but only ... slowing its deterioration. The behavior of the market might seem strange, if not knowledge of the tremendous liquidity, through which neutralized the negative economic news and swept away everything that is bad.

raw materials, currency and so on

industrial metals on the auctions in London, gold and Baltic Dry Index finished Friday neutral. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against a basket of currencies, but still he manages to hold above its medium-term support levels. Prospects for the U.S. currency become quite vague on the background of incipient transition of a number of sponsors of the American economy on the deployment of its reserves in the SDR.

Oil prices have collapsed as a little below $ 70, and remained at approximately the same level: Brent crude futures traded slightly above $ 67.25, WTI futures brand costs about $ 68.25 (October contract at 9-30 ICN). By all measures, the main energy source should cost less, but the financial game may lead prices anywhere.

Statistics and Reporting

Today in the United States celebrates Labor Day, but because our market will focus on Europe, where significant macroeconomic statistics is expected. Likely to experience high volatility amid falling trading volumes.

OAO Severstal submit statements for the first half of 2009 according to IFRS. Given that the metallurgical industry is one of the first showed signs of recovery, helped by growth in metal prices on the world market and gain from the devaluation of the ruble will be interesting to see how feel the company de facto. A recent report by Evraz has shown that quite well.

Forecast

It is expected that the opening of trading on Russia's stock market happens to break up within 1-1,5%, due to a positive close of business on the world sites on Friday and neutral oil prices.

Information and background noise around the future of the world economy is becoming more and more optimistic: regulators literally sypyat dates to start the recovery, analysts have driven a wave of the series STALIN - cheaper and race increase the projected cost, etc. Nevertheless, the good old proverb says that it is precisely in such moments of bulls and arrives on a bone growth on the head. Certainly the collapse of global regulators, having learned last year, is unlikely to be allowed, but must be understood desync behavior of stock markets and the state of affairs in the real sector of the economy. The current growth of quotations of securities fit into the concept of asset inflation and for him is not worth virtually no significant fundamental factors.

It is possible that to date domestic sites complete growth
As soon as the speculators always try to fulfill a five-year plan in three days
In the short run does not exclude certain depreciation of the ruble in relation to leading world currencies
Recovery of interest in steel segment in the world should contribute to the growth of shares of domestic metallurgical
Asian Markets intercepted the baton of growth from its overseas counterparts
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