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Today's statistics on unemployment in Germany and the United States can restore power, Bear

Jul 30th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and Comments

Correction to the July rally on the Russian stock market on Wednesday was launched.

RTS Index fell by 2.8% to 973.78 points, the index of the MICEX - to 1.54% to 986.8 points. The volume of trades fell.

By the opening of trading Wednesday on hopes of recovery growth following the course of obtaining a fixed profit on long positions were crossed out prior to the deterioration of the external background.

First, market participants reacted with caution to the collapse of the Chinese stock market, where in the absence of significant occasions of the day fall within the Shanghai Composite Index reached 7.7%. Such Fortelle may be a good precursor to a major withdrawal of capital from risky assets that is not a bad strategy at this point, given that almost all over the world to score multipliers shares reached highs in September last year, while in reality economy at the moment was only an end to the recession, and in the coming quarter will see only technological growth, as a prerequisite for continuation of recovery is not yet so obvious. Given that the Russian stock market belongs to the developing world and includes an equal footing with the Chinese market to the group BRIC, not be ruled out as a wave of wanton fall could overwhelm us. Whatever dithyramb not ordered on the attractiveness of Russia, Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Asset Management, one of those who form the weather on the stock markets.

Second, after the draft to the risk of the early ebb and Euro was unable to overcome the bar to $ 1.43 against the dollar correction and the mood shifted to commodity platforms, where the desire to fix the profit received a multiplier effect after the data from the API on significant increases of oil reserves in the United States as a result of last week. Breakthrough support for $ 66.5/barr. WTI has led to a mixture of continued momentum in sales on the Russian stock market, resulting in the MICEX index without потуг dropped to 980 points, the minimum marks for the last five days, where he became a wait for the opening of the European sites.

There have been positive signals. In contrast to the previous day, companies that reported for II quarter, please more than disheartening. At the pleasure of bear the special report from ArcelorMittal, while vis-a-vis them as trump cards have been reports of PSA Peugeot Citroen, Daimler, Akzo Nobel, Bayer and Infineon Technologies, which has given a positive vector of the dynamics of European markets and has enabled the MICEX index to Technical podskok of 980 points.

However, after unsuccessfully been tested psychologically important level of 1000 points was the most intraday traders doubt the feasibility to maintain long and was inclined to think rediscovered short. Relationship with the European stock sites, where continued growth was interrupted, and, despite the stabilization of the situation in the energy market, quotations of domestic securities were little by little sit-won position.

In the future, as shown to shift tactics to short met. Initially, orders for durable goods came out worse than forecasts, which is not a surprise, because this indicator has grown in the previous three months, and its value is quite volatile, but this still left a nasty residue. Further weak trading session opened in the states against the background of the mixed record of ConocoPhillips, and WellPoint. And to crown all, the Ministry presented the official U.S. data on oil and petroleum products, which led prizadumatsya: how valid current quotes real ratio of supply and demand for black gold in the world. A new wave of lower oil quotations reassure those market participants who have decided to move its short position through the night, bringing the MICEX index had completed the day near the lower boundary formed in the early hours of the day side-band.

At the falling market was a place for positive stories. Upgrading the fair value of steel in Japan, a number of investment companies, the reluctance of BHP Billiton to lower the price of the vacation iron raw materials, as well as good quarterly results of companies in Russia, published the day before, allowed representatives of the Steel shares to resist negative obscherynochnomu: Severstal (1.55%), NLMK ( 0.41%), CMI (-1.18%). Shares of mining companies, by contrast, around the world have become the most important goal for the Bears, which resulted in MMC Norilsk Nickel shares (-4.09%) under the influence of global trends have become major outsiders to liquid securities that the overall result подпортило index of metallurgical companies Micex MM (-0.74%).

The oil and gas sector showed weakness against the backdrop of decline in the price of black gold (Micex OG -1.03%). Better opponents in the industry looked Rosneft shares (-0.1%) after the publication of the accounts for the II quarter of RAS and shares Lukoil (-0.8%) after the publication of financial indicators of ConocoPhillips, which owns 20%-ing the package to the largest private oil company in Russia.

Shares of financial segment Micex FNL (-1.44%) were also subject to sales due to a sharp weakening of the ruble against the basket bivalyutnoy due to adverse market conditions in the oil market. Shares of Sberbank cheaper at 2.35%, VTB shares at 2.41%.

Looking at this market:

The American stock market suffered a loss of the second day in succession (SP 500 -0.46%). Securing the continued gains against the backdrop of growing skepticism in the validity of the prevailing price after the multipliers meaningful levels. Weakness also introduced the third in this week's auction on placing treasuries. New five-year yield has exceeded forecasts of experts, which again made the current talk of a prolonged economic recovery in the light of the increasing cost of borrowed money. Falling prices for commodities, which resulted in a sharp decrease in the capitalization of the oil and mining companies, also contributed to lowering the stock indicators. On Thursday, futures on U.S. indexes are almost entirely negative levels closing spot market (SP 500 0.36%)

At the Asian stock markets, the negative of the commodity markets outweighs the positive data on promproizvodstvu in Japan, and good reports from the automakers Honda Motor and Nissan Motor.

At the black gold market after yesterday's publication of oil and oil prices dropped below $ 63/barr. and in the morning today trying to compensate for the fall ($ 63.22/barr.). Industrial metals, however, during the absence of tenders in Russia have been able to price podrasti.

On Thursday, the Russian stock market will open on the previous day's closing levels, and then can be expected to attempt to revert to resistance at 1000 points on the MICEX index. Like yesterday, these efforts may be futile. Rising futures on U.S. indices must adjust to a positive mood, because today's statistics on unemployment in Germany (11-55 Moscow time) and the United States (16-30 Moscow time) could force return of Bear. Nevertheless, in today's auction after the end of the expected new wave of sales is to open a Long, hoping to rebound from current levels. The nature of the recovery movement after two days of decline will be judged on whether to continue to move the stop to break even, or to open a mid-term short. Shares of Gazprom today will receive support from the Government's decision not to increase from 2010 NDPI gas.

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