rebound in Statistics

morning before the opening of Russian background sites was fairly negative. So, on the eve of the U.S. stock markets on Thursday observed the negative dynamics, S P500 index fell to close to 1,2%, but worse than the market shares of raw materials and look high-tech companies. The pressure on the markets have concerns of investors regarding the potential tightening of monetary policy. In comments the Fed market saw a hint of an early increase in base interest rates. The negative sentiment from the U.S. and spread to Asian equity markets, reduction of key stock market indices in the region this morning reached 2%. Strengthening U.S. dollar has continued to exert pressure on commodity markets: Brent oil futures fell to $ 72 per barrel, to continue declining industrial non-ferrous metals.

However, as the main event today was the way The data are from the United States. At 16.30 Moscow time went on revised data on GDP in the fourth quarter, which proved to be significantly better than expectations. Thus, the revised value for the fourth quarter amounted to 5,7%, while the market is expected to increase by 4,7%. But this does not become the only positives to date. At 17.55 Moscow time the index of consumer confidence released on the U.S. just surpassed expectations and amounted to 74.4 points, with the expected 73 points. In general, I think the rebound we saw in the second half of this week can be quite stable andcan be continued next week. However, in the second half of next week we are with high probability we can see the continued slide of the market, as happened in the first half of the week.

Of the notable event of the last week it may be noted the proposal to privatize Herman Gref Sberbank. We have a positive attitude towards privatization of the Savings Bank, as it will relieve him of much of the social functions that lead to an increase in income of the bank. In addition, the placement of the Savings Bank will lead to an increase in investor interest in them, that will reflect positively on their quoted market prices. Nevertheless, we believe that the state will not sell a controlling stake in Sberbank in the foreseeable future, as many system-state-owned companies in need of a major state bank, which could carry out lending to non-market conditions. With regard to the privatization of 7,6% shares of Sberbank, their possible sale will not affect the bank"s strategy, as a majority will remain in state hands. Our 12-month target price of 1 ordinary share of Sberbank is $ 2.32, recommendation - "Keep". Task 12-month target price of 1 preferred share of the Savings Bank - $ 1.10, recommendation - "Sell".

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