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The only “fly in the ointment” in a news background - the negative data on sales of durable goods

Feb 26th, 2010 | By admin | Category: News and Comments

In full accordance with the expectations expressed in the previous review, FOMC retained in his comments on the thesis of asoft monetary policy for a long time.

Our expectations for the speech Barack Obama is not only justified, but even were exceeded: we predicted that the rhetoric against the banks will be alleviated, but did not expect so. Saying that he was "not interested in punishing the banks," the American president is almost completely retracted its Friday statement.

American companies also continue to please: a 32-hoo companies that had reported before the opening of trading today, only 10 showed results worse than expected.

The only "fly in the ointment" in a news background - worse than expected macro-economic statistics. For example, sales of durable goods rose in December, only 0.2% instead of the expected 2% and this was associated with a fall in car sales. But it is not surprising. Expectations were very high, and we do not understand how we could expect such high Durable Goods, given the results of the failed real estate for sale in December.

Thus, the general background of positive news. This will help to restore oil prices and continued growth of stock markets (including Russia).

With regard to the course the single European currency, it is quite live up to expectations (in the review of January 26, we recommended selling the euro). The euphoria from the bonds Greece was short, and yesterday the growth spreads to Germany bonds resumed. It seems that perhaps only two options for the development of events: either the ECB credits Greece (increasing the money supply and depriving the only attractive features of the euro), or the latter leaves the euro area. Both are bad for the European currency. So the decline of the euro in the near future will continue.

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