next great arrival of the IMF mission in Kiev were waiting with impatience. And not just because the Prime Minister wanted to attract foreign experts to develop the budget. Spring issue of And it really will be a new installment? again became topical.

Disturbed

September

As

domestic officials are trying to prove their latest statements, Ukraine's cooperation with the International Monetary Fund goes on, periodically stumbling on misunderstandings. And reasons for differences do not vary from month to month. As soon as the parties reach a compromise, as once again it appears that official Kiev either failed, or forgot, or did not have time to fulfill a significant portion of its obligations. And in September 2009 fully fits into the framework of the established tradition of crisis tranche.

By the end of July, when it was decided on the allocation of the third tranche of credit stand-by, the relations of the Cabinet and the IMF gives hope for the best. The Ukrainian side then promised to catch up and overtake the plan of activities under the memorandum of cooperation, illustrating the sincerity of his intentions the decision of the National Commission for Electricity Regulation of raising the gas rate for the population and enterprises Teplokommunenergo from September 1. Representatives of the Fund is, in turn, taken to manifest approval and potentially taken up and did not exclude the possibility that the Fund may revise the amount earmarked for Ukraine in the direction of increasing. But in less than one and a half months, as the tone of communication with the creditor institutions, the Ukrainian authorities had become much tougher. And the main reason for this seems to be a surprising inconsistency debtors reformers, following the principle of the mission had gone - the problem remained.

Judging by the scale of the reaction, one of the main news late August - early September 2009 were statements IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine by Max Alier possible decommissioning work with Kiev. If you do not comply with performance, we will analyze the reasons for this failure ... If such deviations are the result of deliberate policy, which would be contrary to the spirit and objectives of the program, we will stop cooperation, - admitted member of the international financial organizations. And the reasons for concern enough - by the end of summer Ukraine really slowed down considerably with the implementation of commitments.

One of the most striking examples of government attempts to sit on the maximum available chairs could be a situation that has arisen around the planned increase in gas price. Recall that in July NERC managed to pass (and, it seems, twice - under different numbers) of the order, raising tariffs on 20 per cent in September (with a further repetition of every quarter) for the population, and for Teplovik-public utilities. Nevertheless, by the end of summer, those instruments have not got to the Ministry of Justice, shall register those rulings National Commission, which dealt with the pocket of individuals. Meanwhile, the head of the government once again publicly stated that the population should not suffer - however, on the eve of elections to expect otherwise from the Yulia Tymoshenko did not have to. Ironically, the yield was found almost immediately - August 26, Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan lamented the fact that raising rates might not approve the trade unions. Said - done: already 31 August District Administrative Court of Kyiv satisfied the topical action of the National Forum of Trade Unions of Ukraine. And, because NERC intends to plead further, and the IMF has not changed its view on the tariff policy - another branch marlezonskogo ballet ahead.

delay in bringing the gas rates to market levels - not the only point on which the representatives have arrived in Kiev on September 1 of the mission have any questions. Reasons perplex the situation enough. Among which clearly stood out and put the recapitalization of troubled financial institutions (with a hang in the air bank Nadra and Ukrprombank), and the growth of budget deficits, and loss of relevance of pension reform, which this spring received such attention. Not to mention addressing the parliament the president's veto on a law involving sponsoring National Bank of preparation for Euro-2012 to nearly $ 10 billion hryvnia ... welcome such a discrepancy and the promise was real hard, and the leadership of the IMF mission to do this no more. ... It seems that the IMF understands that compliance is inhibited approaching presidential election. And they have no confidence in the success of the work on the mistakes - close to the negotiations reported an anonymous source edition of Kommersant-Ukraine at the beginning of the complex process of communication. But a few days later a succession of official statements by Ukrainian officials hastened to assure: all good cooperation continues. I would like to stop speculation on what the IMF reportedly threatened to cease cooperation with Ukraine. That's not true! - Shared his point of view of the NBU Council head Petro Poroshenko. However, in his interview with Reuters, the head of mission Ceyla Pazarbasioglu was restrained, but still not as critical set, as expected. The IMF noted the successes of Ukraine in the direction of improvement of the banking market and complained to the political causes of the destabilization of the economy. Is it possible that this time Ukraine rid slight shock?

promises a creditor can not feed ...

few days later, the mission left Kiev, leaving behind a number of valuable guidance and broad space for diverse interpretations. The closer to the government, the more optimistic luchatsya speakers, assuring him that as soon as all the requirements of the Fund will otinventarizirovany and implemented. Accordingly, the farther away - so loudly voiced pessimists. My conversations with the head of the mission led to the conclusion of their enormous frustration with how behaves Ukraine, which not only fulfills its obligations as and misinformed about their performance - a moral country prepares for the worst deputy head of the joint venture, Alexander Shlapak. In the meantime, the parties agree, it seems, in one - a stumbling block (or rather, not least their party) is loosely understanding of the Government and the NBU commitments. And the fate of the loan depends on how the work will be done correctly.

Based

words Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the Cabinet once again gave a number of already discounted because of unfulfilled promises. Among them - to raise the same rates for the population (new temporary bracket - the first of October), to conduct structural reforms in the energy sector, to adopt the budget on the basis of indicators recommended for the attention of the Fund. Theoretically, the time to do all that. The decision to grant the next tranche to be taken in October. If the desire for this period can have time to spend at least a number of activities (not for nothing that appeared the next date of gas price increase). In addition to raising the rates for the month the government should try to avoid inflating the critical deficit (especially at the expense of cherished regionals social payments) and something to cover up the existing holes (such as privatization, on which the Cabinet still has high hopes) . Also need to have time to present new estimates of the country's primary deficit is not more than 4 percent of GDP. In this respect, reason to believe in the success of the Cabinet have enough - enough to recall the story of the planned delay in the need to revise the macroeconomic indicators in 2009. Finally, a good addition to the mentioned measures could serve as a reform - if not carried out, at least designed in the form of bills. Given the efficiency of the Ukrainian parliament's delay in making some decisions can be explained - not the IMF, so voters ...

Despite the fact that a number of requirements of the Fund looks quite feasible in theory, in practice, such a fate they can not comprehend. One of the reasons - some unattractive because of their upcoming elections. Judging by the tone of statements, the head of the IMF mission understands space policy in the Ukrainian economy. I do not encourage people going to the presidential elections, to become friends. But when the country is in crisis, must be at least understanding what to do. No more. Everyone is trying to harm others, - noted Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

In the case of unfulfilled promises to the lender called several ways. First - the worst - to break the credit program. Predict all of his and image, and the financial implications of heavy, but that kick of inflationary expectations roll the proverbial second wave of the crisis, more than likely. The second option - to make allowances for the elections and forgive. It seems that some Ukrainian politicians to really expect otherwise difficult to interpret them unfounded optimism. They (the management of the Fund) has long figured out with whom in this country to deal with, they know perfectly well that the president will Tymoshenko, they are already counted, so for her and give these low-cost loans to the country was in a stable financial situation in order to was stable hryvnia exchange rate - the author of these words BYuT member Ivan Kirilenko forgivable similar apology for the prime minister, but in isolation from the party's interests, it does not look too convincing.

third, and until quite likely scenario is a repetition of the season winter-spring-2009. Recall, then the payment of the second tranche was postponed from February to May because of delays in the fulfillment of certain conditions of the memorandum Ukraine-IMF, including - by the parliamentary opposition. Once the necessary legislation enacted, and the project Recapitalization headway (at least identified the basic rules), the financing of Ukraine has returned to square one ... It is possible that the same management of the Fund will do so again, if the Ukrainian government is did not find in itself the moral strength to decide on steps unattractive to voters.

Such a scenario though unpleasant, but, according to experts, not tragic. There will be stepped up arrears of budget, part of the protected budget expenditures could be financed through the inclusion of the printing press. But before the collapse is still far, - the director of the Center for Economic Razumkov Basil Yurchishin. Moreover, the pre-election off season Ukraine could try to find other sources of funding. As always, first and foremost remembered Russia. But the neighbors, according to Deputy Prime Minister - Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, to discuss the fate of the loan is not in a hurry, on the contrary - underline its contribution to the loyalty of the IMF. In the case of failure of the use of external resources available to the Government will be internal. In the best case - the standard income and speculative income from privatization. At worst - dopechatyvanie required number of banknotes with all the attendant inflationary consequences.

subsequent behavior of the Ukrainian authorities, apparently, depends on the rigidity of the positions of the IMF's board. Perhaps it was undiplomatic threat to suspend co-operation could end the series of commission promises that every time shall be secured by the next tranche and returned unfulfilled after the money is allocated. But even under the threat of sticks - excommunication from the trough is relevant carrot - buying the loyalty of voters by refusing to unpleasant innovations. It is likely that the country's leadership will be closer this variant - to live up to the elections, explaining the problem perfidy of the world (including parliamentarians, and possibly, the intransigence of the Fund), and then - deluge. The main thing is that the deluge was still necessary to carry out unpopular reforms later, but not critical blow to the state of the economy.

Xenia Sokółka

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