Surgut news

negative dynamics of world sites, our oil prices and industrial metals spoke today in favor of opening Russian trading in the red zone. Reducing Russian indexes at the opening should reach 1-1.5%.

The key event of the day will be the data on U.S. GDP, which will be published at 16.30 Moscow time. The market expects a growth of 4,6%.

Ben Bernanke has kept the post of head of the Federal Reserve System. The Senate on Thursday by 70 votes in favor and 30 against Obama"s expressed support for the candidature of Mr. Bernanke.

At the forum in Davos, Gref made for the sale of state shares in Sberbank, proceeds from the sale may be directed to cover the budget deficit. According to Gref, Russia"s government can not effectively solve the deficit problem without partial privatization of the Savings Bank, over 60% of the voting shares of which now controls Central Bank. From our point of view, the idea of countries, based on political expediency and social stability, the Bank of Russia will be forced to retain 50% of 1 share in Sberbank"s voting shares in the foreseeable future, reduced below this mark can cause panic among depositors BEAC, which is still in many ways rightly perceived as a quasi-sovereign obligations Sberbank debt. Sale State Sberbank shares while retaining control is unlikely to seriously affect the budget deficit and therefore unlikely expedient. But, of course, if the authorities would do this step, increased supply will lead to a decrease in the capitalization of the leading bank in the country.

Today in Surgut Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin will discuss with the heads of oil companies and the issues ESPO develop eastern Siberia. We believe that the risks of victory of the Ministry of Finance in a dispute with the oil is low, and continues to recommend shares of Rosneft and Surgut preferred shares to buy.

It will be recalled that Russia"s government has a controlling stake in Gazprom, which owns more than 95% in Gazprom Neft, which means 49.5% of Slavneft, and the government owns more than 75% in Rosneft, but actually more, tk . 9.44% stake in Rosneft are the treasury. Accordingly, the output oil and gas revenues in the budget is through dividend payments, although of course in this case will have little to share with the stock market, including those with ordinary Russians, who bought shares in Rosneft at a popular IPO in 2006, and in fact raised a final nail in the coffin of Yukos , which was and remains more than a matter of principle for the Russian authorities.

Dividends Gazprom for 2009, and therefore the proceeds from the concern in the budget will remain at the meager level, but it is of little concern to Russia"s power. Rosneft and Lukoil increased the dividend even for the crisis in 2008 and going back to do it in 2009. Word of the authorities on corporate governance to global standards are very often just words. Work more effectively with the database of potential revenue and reduce corruption component in the cost of course much more complicated than clip coupons from the stock of oil companies. And the situation with minority shareholders Transneft does not bear scrutiny.

now among the investment community, there was concern about slowing growth in China, which can strike the most vulnerable point of Russia"s financial sector and the economy - prices of raw materials. That is the price of oil in Russia depend on both the cash flows of companies and, ultimately, the discount rate. Go is to say that the real picture of China"s economy is probably no one knows, can only roughly assess the current situation. The reason for this is the socialist system of accounting, the quality of financial reporting and transparency in China much like Russia"s third echelon.

Real GDP of China in the first 9 months of 2009 showed growth at 7.7% during the growth of 9,9% over the same period last year. Reducing the rate of growth, of course, can cause some suspicion. However, China, despite the growth of domestic demand is still very tied to the U.S. market, respectively, started out of the U.S. economy from the crisis can not inspire optimism. It is unlikely that the Fed would tighten monetary policy before the final withdrawal of the U.S. economy from the crisis, the risks of new U.S. issues in the current situation tend to zero. Continuing high rates of economic growth for China"s political leadership is an essential goal, measures to cool the economy, if accepted, will be local. We believe that Russia"s companies that are tied to the Chinese market as a whole should not expect problems. For investments, we can distinguish Rosneft and to a lesser extent UralKali.

Today, the fall in the market of Russia is unlikely to be active, as players will be expected GDPce6data for the U.S. 4 Quarter
This morning the picture on the world markets again looks quite sad, it puts pressure on Russia"s indexes
By WGC-1, one of the leaders of the growth of the previous two days, investors will be announced today record profits in the short-term correction
Collapse of Russia"s market of today is not worth waiting, the MICEX index endure above 1370-1360 items
Trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange on Thursday totaled 107.39 billion rubles
The main risk to the shares of domestic companies is the situation on the currency market, where the dollar continues to strengthen against the euro
In the first minutes of trading, the bears, taking advantage of the external background, misled the market to the level of 1390 points and will try to break
Today is not excluded sufficiently sharp movements in domestic platforms
The U.S. market was closed in the red zone, the Asian indices traded raznonapravlenno