Time "bears" will come in the spring

external background today as a whole is neutral, respectively, we expect the opening of trading yesterday, about the levels, the market will be worse than the financial sector. Increased interest in securities is possible to Gazprom. Tomorrow Gazprom will publish its financial results for the third quarter of international accounting standards. Accountability will be weak, however, already in the fourth quarter financial results improved significantly on the background of increasing production and exports

value of shares Russia"s United Company RUSAL in the first day of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange declined by 8%.

The key event of the day will be a decision on the rate th1000e Fed and the related Comment 22.15 Moscow time. Together with data on U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Friday, comment the Fed will have very serious impact on the market. The rate of course will remain unchanged. Investors will receive a new piece of information for consideration on the timing of the Fed tightening of monetary policy, which this year we see as a necessary evil. However, while in the short term, we do not believe the current negative news seriously, and we remain generally optimistic outlook for the stock market.

According to the results of sociological surveys in Ukraine in the second round of presidential elections to be held on February 7, by a wide margin winner, Viktor Yanukovich.

the risk of oil transit through Belarus, the conditions of supply of raw materials western neighbor is still not defined. Stocks at the Belarusian oil refineries will suffice until the end of January.

Rosneft will publish financial results for 2009 by US GAAP standards in early February, exact date to be announced later. On 19 January and 1 March the export of oil from 22 fields in East Siberia will be duty-free, preferential treatment is likely to continue after that date.

Net profit of Sberbank of Russia under RAS in 2009 was $ 36.2 billion rubles against 108.2 billion rubles of net profits earned a year earlier. A figure of better than expected, the local positive for the bank"s shares, however, for investments in the financial sector, we prefer to VTB shares.

The main risk to Russia remains the external environment, Russia"s economy is among the export-oriented, the domestic market remains weak. However, turmoil in the global economy and financial markets in 2010 are unlikely, although the risks are still higher than before the crisis. New rules of the game for the U.S. financial sector, which could cause a sale on the markets are likely to be introduced gradually. Expected long-term dynamics of Russia"s economy looks more optimistic than pessimistic. The rate of growth of Asian economies in the foreseeable future will be higher than in the West. And big focus on these markets will allow Russia to maintain high growth rates over a long period of time. However, the socialist system of accounting in China does not allow a realistic assessment of the prospects of its dynamics, and from China are heavily dependent on commodity prices.

In 2010, we expect industrial production growth at 5-6%, thus pre-crisis level would not be reached, respectively, one of the key characteristics of growth will remain low base effect last year. GDP growth in 2010, we expect at the level of 4-5%. This year, we expect a further decline in inflation to 6-7% against the backdrop of weak consumer demand and the conservative policies of the state in terms of budget execution. This year, we expect increased retail lending, which have a positive impact on consumer demand. We expect consumption growth in 2010 by about 4%.

Among the regions in the best position is the Far East, which is due to ties in the rapidly growing Chinese market, in comparison with other Russia"s regions are much less affected by the crisis. Accordingly, investments in shares of companies in the region or national champions tied to the Chinese market (Rosneft) look quite interesting investment, except, perhaps, is Dalsvyaz. Despite the continued growth potential of securities companies on discounted cash flows, the risks of consolidation of subsidiaries of Svyazinvest in Rostelecom very large, however, come soon, the coefficients of conversion will appear in the spring.

State economic policy is still effective medium, despite all efforts, the coefficient of looting "of public inve1000stments and programs saved approximately pre-crisis level of 30% in the 90 years - 50%, and the individual programs - 90 -100%. At the same time speaking about the investment climate and modernization, the government is largely confined to words. The most glaring example - Transneft.

Despite the premature awakening of the bears, we expect to exit the RTS index in the corridor of 1800-2000 points. Time bears come in the spring, and while in the courtyard of cold, which means additional demand for energy.

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