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The growth of Russian stocks this week may have only a speculative nature

Jun 30th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and Comments

Week in the Russian market started quite contradictory. Most investors expect that the market will decline, driven negative background with international stock pads. Therefore, the first 15 minutes of bidding, we saw significant sales of all blue chips, with the result that many shares fell 2% below the closing price on Friday. But then suddenly the mood of investors has changed - at the European sites was dominated by positive dynamics, and SP futures began to rise steadily from the negative zone.

As a result, futures on the RTS Index for 30 minutes (to 11:45) took off from 91 200 to 94 200 (3.2%). After that, almost to the closure of Russian shares traded in a fairly narrow range - with an increase of 1% to 2%, but a closing auction, our market-driven positive with commodity markets, increased the growth. As a result, the MICEX index rose by 3% and RTS_Derex (more dynamic version of the RTS Index) rose by 1.7% to 955 points.

trading on the MICEX were rather modest, if not take into account the contribution of shares of Sberbank (the total amount of ordinary and preferred securities totaled $ 1.124mlrd) - only $ 721mln. Thus, talk about the resumption of a serious demand for Russian shares too early. We think that the rise on Monday partly due to a positive analytical reports, which gave analysts at Citigroup shares of oil and gas sector in Russia. At the same time, we do not see little demand for second-tier events (even on MICEX), which could prove the investor confidence in the prospects for long-term growth.

We believe that the rise this week could have only a speculative nature - most of the fundamental news is already play.

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