Perspective: We do not share the general optimism about future growth

Friday speculation has continued in the first half of yesterday's auction. It seems that once again carried shortistov. The turnover on the MICEX exceeded all expectations and showed the maximum value for the last 4 months - 94.2 billion rubles. Stock indexes have updated their annual highs. The main contribution made by heavyweights - Lukoil, Sberbank, and finally increased share of the gas monopoly. Without passing of Gazprom shares rally, of course, bore until yesterday shade of some unfinished business.

Comparison of the dynamics of the MSCI emerging markets relative to world index MSCI-World (Fig. 1) indicates its considerable revaluation as a result of the emerging new financial bubble. Russia has been buying this series is no exception. Attitude indices MSCI-Ru /MSCI-EM is now also located near a local maximum (Fig. 2).

Therefore, we do not share the general optimism about the sustainability of this growth, which increasingly resembles the May scenario with all the ensuing consequences. Speculation with cheap money inflated expectations of positive data in the U.S. - here, perhaps, and all the major terms on the final stage of growth. Customers at these levels is becoming smaller, but wishing to lock in profits at the first negative signal can be quite a lot. This will not be superfluous to recall the simple rule buy on expectations - to sell on fact.

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