dollar - a strong currency does not tire of repeating IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn. "He is not the only one, but the best tool for safe storage of savings for many individuals and companies", - considers the financier. Such verbal support needs of the American currency.

rapidly growing national debt the U.S. casts doubt on the stability of the financial system. However, 60 years ago, American authorities have coped with such a debt problem. Solve it helped inflation, and very moderate in Ukrainian standards.

miracle inflation

recession in the developed world ends, a report by Western officials. In III1000quarter of last year"s GDP in the U.S. and euro-zone countries has ceased to decline and grew by 2,2% and 0,4% respectively (compared with
II quarter, subject to seasonal adjustment). But to overcome the crisis had to pay dearly.

government sharply increased fiscal spending, which led to the rapid growth of public debt. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG, just sixteen months, the U.S. federal debt grew by a quarter - from $ 9.7 trillion to $ 12.3 trillion, surpassing the 86% of GDP (as of 15.01.2010).

While the U.S. economy and went to the amendment, the rate of increase in government debt not only did not fall, but even grow. In October-December 2009 state budget deficit amounted to U.S. $ 388.5 billion - a 17% increase over the same period of 2008. The trend has a simple explanation: the administration of Barack Obama is spending more on a variety of programs to support the economy, but U.S. revenue decline, not least because of tax benefits.

It is possible that a bold policy of the White House on borrowing related to c so that once the U.S. authorities have already managed to cope with more serious debts. After the Second World War (in 1946) the obligations of the U.S. government exceeded 121% of GDP. But just ten years they managed to reduce almost by half - to 62,3% of GDP.

secret of getting rid of debt was very simple. First, the U.S. government drastically reduced the amount of borrowing. From 1946 to 1956 the nominal size of government debt increased slightly more than 1% - from $ 269.4 billion to $ 272,8 billion Thus the economy was growing slowly - in 1947-1956. real GDP grew at an average of 3.6% per year. Therefore, the size of commitments in relation to GDP, and therefore the burden of debt is gradually diminishing.

Secondly, the U.S. authorities allowed an increase in inflation, which has largely wiped out the debt.

Its level was quite moderate - in the years 1947-1956 consumer prices in the U.S. grew by an average of 3.5% per year. But in the end of ten years the total inflation reached 41%. Rate increase in prices after the war, only slightly higher than usual for the United States level. In 1957-2008 gg. She was even higher than in the postwar period - an average of 4,1% per year. And in 2009 in the U.S. economy prevailed deflation - consumer prices fell by 0,4%. Why is now the American administration not to try again to devalue the debt?

Playing With Fire

now look even more favorable circumstances. Sixty years ago, about 85% of the federal debt amounted to U.S. borrowing on the domestic capital market. So in fact the debt problem has been solved by U.S. banks, companies and individuals who buy government securities. Today, the main creditors of the U.S. administration are the Federal Reserve System (FRS), which belongs mostly to 43% debt, as well as foreign investors, which accounted for 27% of the debt. That is for getting rid of debt to pay themselves authorities and foreigners.

However, this time the inflation method will not be as effective as in the postwar period. The maturities of debt is now considerably less than sixty years ago. According to U.S. economists, Eisenman, Joshua and Nancy Marion, in 1946 the average maturity of government bonds reached 9 years old, and in June 2009 he was twice lower - 3,9 years. This means that in case of rising inflation, the cost of servicing government debt will grow much faster than in the postwar period, which partly eliminates the effect of devaluing the price increase.

the way, now in the portfolio of the creditors of the American government is and securities, the returns are tied to inflation (TIPS), but th1000eir share is small - no more than 10%. In addition, the growth rate of the economy of the United States in the near future is likely to be low. According to the IMF, in 2010-2014 gg. U.S. GDP will grow only 2.3% annually.

But the main problem in another. The main condition for solving the debt problem - halting state debt in dollar terms. When this happens - is unknown. While the White House and the Fed does not remove the risk of monetary backup from the recovery of the economy, fearing that the withdrawal of support will lead to a new recession. With them in solidarity and the head of the IMF. "If we remove incentives too early, you risk a second wave of recession", - believes Dominique Strauss-Kahn. American officials are discussing an exit strategy from programs to stimulate the economy, but so far more than talk is not going.

There is no guarantee that a prolonged and massive cash infusion will help bring the American economy on a path of rapid and sustainable growth. In 1990 a similar incentive policy pursued by Japan, but she was unable to overcome the stagnation. In 1992-1999,. GDP growth averaged 0.7% per year, and state aid only supported floating nonviable companies and banks. Stagnation - not the only possible scenario. Playing with inflation can be very dangerous.

"History shows that a modest level of inflation may increase the risk of unintended acceleration of growth of prices to double digits, as has happened in the United States in 1947 and 1979-1981" - reminiscent of Joshua Aizenman and Nancy Marion. Loss of control over the pace of price growth will lead to a drop in household incomes and reduce consumer demand, which constitutes the basis of the U.S. economy and undermine confidence in the dollar. However, prior to the implementation of such a grim scenario is still far.

Three years of peace

U.S. and foreign investors still willing to lend to the U.S., do not fear the shock of inflation in the next few years. Since June last year, ten-year Treasury bond yield States hovers around 3,6-3,8% per annum. This is higher than a year ago (in January 2009 On their rates dropped to 2.1% per annum), but lower than in 2005-2008., Where the yield ranged between 4-5% per annum. The budget deficit in the U.S. has not led to the launch of the printing press. If the principal creditors Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers - National Bank and the IMF, the U.S. government draws primarily funds from private investors and foreign organizations. Since September 2007 the first Fed 52,6% owned U.S. government debt, and two years later its share fell to 43%.

Economists believe that the U.S. authorities still have reserves for the accumulation of debts, and their size becomes a problem not before a few years. "If over the next three to five years, the U.S. government does not take measures to reduce the budget deficit for the second half of the decade, the debt will approach the level that would call into question the rating of securities of the United States at the level of AAA," - thinks Brian Colton, director of macroeconomic research international rating agency Fitch.

, however, likely to increase inflation in the U.S. over the next three to five years would be inevitable, regardless of how quickly the incentive program would be discontinued - pumping cash economy will be consequences. Already in December 2009 consumer price inflation in the U.S. jumped to 2,7% (in annual terms), whereas in November, a rise in prices was 1.8%, and from March to October was recorded deflation (from -0,2% to -2,1% in annual terms).

Low inflation is still beneficial to the White House, including to address the debt problem. &quf29ot;A significant proportion of government debt, which is owned by foreign investors, increasing the temptation to raise inflation to reduce the size of debt relative to GDP. If the U.S. economy will slow down, the debt could trigger inflation at around 5% for several years," - predict Joshua Aizenman and Nancy Marion. In addition, the dollar, inflation will reduce the price of American goods compared with foreign, leading to a reduction in imports, spur domestic production, and also help reduce the trade deficit States.

However, most inflation (about 10% and above) are not in U.S. interests, as well as threatens to undermine confidence in the dollar in the world. And hide from the cheapening of American banknotes in other currencies will be difficult, since neither developed nor developing countries strengthen their considerable disadvantage of monetary units. Not interested in them and in the collapse of the dollar. The United States now accounts for about a quarter of world GDP, so any problems in the economy of this country will have a negative impact on other states.

Forex - results of the day
The Ukrainian stock market on Wednesday remained "bullish" sentiment on domestic demand
During today"s session at the roar of Russd46ia remain high volatility, which again will increase the speculative activity
Today, there are data on durable orders and initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S.
Yesterday, trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 107.17 billion rubles
Markets can now go up to Barack Obama"s new proposals, which will leave the MICEX index to 1420 points
In the evening session on FORTS futures on RTS index has played the position, rising by 0,5% to a value of 146 065 points
Better the market today may look like shares of banks and steel companies
Today, the closest level of support for the RTS Index futures will mark 143.000 points