U.S. last week set a new record for the fall: five days in the course of its sale of non-cash market fell from 8,32 to 8,08 UAH. /$ in the cash - from 8,35 to 8,09 UAH . /$. Financial experts claim that the river flowed into the country currency: this is the export earnings of enterprises, and the infusion of capital in Ukrainian banks to foreign shareholders, and the return of money from offshore Ukrainian politicians at the presidential campaign.

While speculators who usually during the course of the collapse of the dollar buying on the cheap, and scratched his hands, but this time they could not play on the situation. National Bank of overdone and tied so much money that most of them simply did not have the hryvnia for games on the currency market.

Hryvnia beginning strengthened since the beginning of last week. Cashless trading on Monday opened at the level of 8,32 UAH. /$, Which is to revert to a medium quotes 8,21 UAH. /$, And on Friday - up to 8,08 UAH. /$. Interviewees financiers provide a revaluation of the national money several explanations. Index - a marked increase in supply of the dollar: according to various estimates, this week it has grown by 15-20%.

We see export proceeds and its sale on the market. The companies also implements foreign currency, were on their deposits to make current payments of wages and tax liabilities, - said the head of the monetary and foreign exchange markets of VAB Bank Natalia Shishatskaya.

same time continue to sell hard currency by banks with foreign capital: one dropped a dollar in order to comply with the norm of open currency positions, others - to raise capital at the expense of foreign currency received from shareholders. However, in the interbank market and did not come out the biggest bank sells, sales of which currency dealers forecast a week ago - Prominvestbank: owner - Russia's Vnesheconombank - gave him $ 500 million for capital increase.

No, we do not sell the currency. probably come out with sales on the interbank market on Monday, - said in an interview the first deputy Vyacheslav PIBA Yutkin. Began to manifest itself and so-called political dollar. The country was gradually entering the currency for the campaign. As a rule, the funds come from offshore and sold in small portions, small banks, - said in an interview with DC Head of Treasury of one of Kiev's banks.

Almost simultaneously with the growth of monetary supply on the interbank market started to weaken demand for the dollar. Naftogaz official said that in the fourth quarter revised procurement plan for the gas. Previously, he had planned to buy 14 billion cubic meters ofgas, and it would cost $ 2.9 billion, he now plans to buy 7.8 billion cubic meters for $ 1,4-1,7 billion, according to various estimates, the total volume of import applications for the acquisition of convertible currency in the interbank market from the beginning of October decreased by 10-15%.

Until now, the strengthening of the hryvnia was provisional in nature and lasted a week and a half. Dealers were waiting for a maximum of cheapening the dollar, and then took him to buy on the cheap, after which the U.S. currency began to gradually get more expensive. Last week they had to do so starved for funds.

According to the National Bank, from 6 to 16 October, balances on correspondent accounts of banks declined from 16.97 billion UAH. to 13.7 billion UAH. This happened for two reasons: due to the introduction in the late summer of compulsory redundancy on correspondent accounts of the National Bank (50% of the total required reserves), and also because of its active sales NBU certificates of deposit. Only during the past week the regulator has placed his certificate on 387 million UAH., Before last - once on 1.8 billion UAH.

to an increase in finuchrezhdeniy grivnevoy mass bankers do not forecast growth in demand for U.S. currency, expecting an increase in the coming weeks supply of the dollar on the interbank market. The main sellers of the dollar will be cashless small banks serving politicians, as well as the financial institution with foreign shareholders, who will continue to sell the currency to increase capital.

I can not say exactly what portions will be sold by shareholders received $ 500 million Our sales will be based on economic expediency, I think they stretch out until mid-December. That is, we will try to sell the most profitable: the bank operates at a loss ( April 1 PIBA loss amounted to 220.047 million UAH. - Ed.), so we need to earn on exchange , - assured Vyacheslav Yutkin.

sales of U.S. currency and expect from Raiffeisen Bank Aval: October 14, the owner - the Austrian group Raiffeisen International - has decided to increase the capital of the Ukrainian daughters of 582.8 million UAH, and financiers expect the dollar equivalent of that amount as in soon arrive in the interbank market. In addition, the fuel of American non-cash currency market will be the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Almost all the projects for the provision of subordinated loans to Ukrainian banks, we have closed: not fully funds were allocated only to Raiffeisen Bank Aval, and UkrSibbank. As for the corporate sector, the companies can get to the end of the year are about $ 300 -- 400 million is primarily infusion of capital so that they will be converted to hryvnia. Also unresolved is the question with a gas credit, although we do not exclude the allocation of $ 300 million to Naftohaz, - says a source at the EBRD.

In a steady flow of hard currency on the interbank market will depend on the regulator. As the supply of the dollar may strengthen hryvnia almost to any value, even up to 7-7,5 UAH. /$. But if the market clearing previously released National Bank and will buy the excess foreign currency, say, the price of 8 grn. /$, then the course secure a spot on that point, - said the treasurer of one of the banks. Financiers now make different assumptions on this score: the optimists believe that the regulator will start to buy the currency when the quotes will reach the level 7,9-8 grn. /$, The pessimists allow a strengthening of the hryvnia to 7,5-7,6 grn. /$.

To the surprise of the financiers, the people are not rushed to buy dollar cash: Monday citizens have the opportunity to purchase it on 8,3-8,35 grn., Friday - has to 8,12-8,18 grn.

We observed a decrease in demand for U.S. currency. natural persons has delayed the acquisition of SLE, waiting for further correction of the course,- explained the situation Natalia Shishatskaya of VAB Bank. Bankers are confident that the Ukrainians pulled himself together at the last moment and then begin to buy foreign currency, as soon as that becomes more expensive. And this happens only when the growth of the dollar on the interbank market.

 

Elena Lysenko

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