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The collapse of the oil market is likely to lead to a reassessment of domestic oil

Sep 25th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and Comments

Attempts to gain a foothold in the stock market reached levels failed. Against the background of capital flight to safety assets and strengthening the dollar, the correction in stocks and raw materials continued, that can do today, the domestic indices lost 1,5-2% of capitalization. However, we believe that this drop in the indices will be limited. Apparently, after the required blood letting, the stock market will begin recovery, drawing support in the liquidity and positive expectations regarding the upcoming publication of corporate reports of U.S. companies.

In the U.S. trading session, the stock market continued to fall: yesterday, the Dow lost 0.42% and fell to 9707.44 on, the index SP - 0,95% and fell to 1,050.78 p. The meeting Fed dramatically altered picture of what is happening in financial markets: fear of purposeful contraction of liquidity and reduce the use of measures to maintain stable economic recovery, reflected in the strengthening dollar and growing demand for protective assets. Fuel to the fire and added the head of the U.S. Treasury - Tim Geithner favoring a strong dollar as a reserve currency. As a result of capital flight from risky assets, some of formed bubbles began to deflate the market: the price of oil fell yesterday in the U.S. session at 4% - to $ 66 per barrel. However, it should be noted that in the semi-annual term, the key fundamental factors that previously pushed the market up, have not changed: the liquidity in the foreseeable future will remain at a high level, the stakes - to zero to continue the restoration of business activity, the market is gradually activated M A . Thus, it is worth to agree with Alan Greenspan, will state that not so long ago that a semi-term it is practically not worried about the state of financial markets.

The reason for yesterday's correction was compiled using data on sales of secondary market: as demonstrated by statistics, they have fallen by 2,7%, for the first time in 5 months, thus signaled the existence of significant barriers that stand in the way of recovery of the housing sector.

Data on unemployment were better than expected, but could not reverse the general course of the auction: the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance fell last week at 21, 000 to 530,000. The number of unemployed receiving benefits has decreased by 123 000 6 138 000 from the previous level of 6 261 000. Signs of improvement in the labor market, partly removed the risk of stagnation in consumption, which lie in current prices and, as early as next week, with the release of official statistics on the labor market (non farm payrolls), may be one of the reasons for buying the stock markets.

As a result, the outsiders on the basis of tendering shares of the banking sector have been affected because of falling demand for real estate, and mining companies, is placed under the blow falling of quotations of oil by 4% during the U.S. trading session.

As seen from the dynamics of the Asian indices this morning with the market remains negative sentiment. Index MSCI Asia Pacific fell by 1,1%. Major losses occurred in the Nikkei (-2,9%), which has suffered from being sold in the financial sector caused by the announcement of Nomura for an additional issue of $ 5.6 billion, however, the market showing signs of recovery: SP futures index slightly older, quotes of raw materials away from the lows reached during the U.S. session.

The collapse of the oil market is likely to lead to a reassessment of domestic oil sector, which at the opening of the drag indexes down for 1,5-2% of those carrying the most of their losses over the past two days to 3-4% . However, judging from the recovery has emerged in Asia in the commodity asset during the day in the equities of oil and steel companies must return the demand, due to which they can offset some of the losses incurred during the correction. Under pressure at the opening of bank shares may fall - the financial sector has become one of the main outsiders in the course of trading in the U.S. and Asia.

We believe that given the correction in oil prices, prospects currently have shares of resource-based companies: energy and telecommunications. In the latter case, the emerging news about the ambitions of Svyazinvest may benefit MRK shares, through which minority shareholders can go to the created telecommunications giant, which turned out not exclude the possibility of an alliance with one of the representatives of the big three mobile.

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