Last winter, after recovering from the initial shock of unexpected the onset of a major crisis, most economists mainstream direction (ie, schools, currently enjoying popularity. - Ed.) have not been able to predict when and how the crisis will be completed .

Beautiful Marquise

Analysts economic mainstream, without going into specifics, prefer whenever possible to report that the crisis has already hit bottom and begin recovery. Thus, in recent weeks, allegations of this kind in turn broke the representatives of big twenty, European Central Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), IMF, U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury personally Timothy Geithner. A charge of optimism with the sovereign husbands enough even the fact that at the summit of twenty to schedule a discussion of anti-crisis mechanisms to minimize programs, which, they say, almost completely laid his case.
    

Certainty attaches them to the following circumstances: economists, who predicted the crisis more clearly and explain the logic of its passing, promised to attack the second wave of economic recession in September 2009 but was already a good half of September, and the world economy is still afloat and even from time to time, demonstrates the green shoots recovery.

Statistical Office of France, Germany, Japan, India and China have already released figures showing the economic growth in the first six months of 2009 another signal: according to the company Markit Economics (of the monthly index of purchasing managers, Purchasing Managers Index, PMI), in August in the euro area business activity rose for thefirst time in 15 months. The U.S. dollar shows relative stability, despite the sharp increase in money supply and a decline in consumer prices in the United States. However, and much of deflation in the United States has not yet been . Some commodity markets (oil, copper, sugar) are recovering from the declines caused by the first wave of the crisis.

Oil unreasonably expensive: the price for it, fell in December to $ 32 per
1 barrel, last week exceeded $ 72. Moreover: in spite of all the laws, while the dollar strengthens and gold! Last week at the New York Mercantile Exchange price of gold has broken the ceiling of $ 1000 for 1 ounce and may continue to grow. Stock indexes rise in the U.S. housing market perked up a bit, and most importantly - the stock markets have indeed experienced quite V-shaped recovery. Some flaws in the field, such as the continuing rise in unemployment in the U.S. (now its real level is around 16%), this benevolent background do not look so bad: in the American business press even coined the term jobless recovery ( economic recovery the persistence of unemployment ).

terrible threat

Economists are now no longer fashionable schools (from the Marxists and the Keynesians to representatives of the Austrian school) argue that to overcome the current crisis is not so close. In the early 1990's negative trends in the economy could be reversed, growing volumes of consumer lending, today these same trends have returned repeatedly reinforced. American consumers, who are the main engine of world economy can no longer continue to consume at the pre-crisis level and begin to take care of those few funds that still have.

Access to credit, develop throughout our lives, is now shrinking. And that means more savings, but fewer sales, fewer jobs and less income. overcast Prospects, - explains the editor of the newsletter The Daily Reckoning Bill Bonner .

According to statistics, the level of discretionary (ie, exceeding the life-saving) costs American households rolled to that of 50-year-old! What is not surprising when we remember the growing unemployment in the United States. And those who have not yet lost his job, sending all proceeds to repay loans. As a result of falling consumption. The low level of consumption in the U.S. means lower profit enterprises, and not only American but also Chinese, and even Ukrainian.
    

Professor Barry Eichengreen (University of Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity College, Dublin, UK) compared the current major economic indicators with indicators of the Great Depression. For a starting point of the current crisis was taken in April 2008 and the Great Depression found in June 1929 found that after 14 months after the start of the current crisis, in June 2009 compared with April 2008, the volume world trade declined by 18%. But after 14 months from the beginning of the Great Depression, in August 1930, compared with June 1929, the volume of world trade declined by 11%.
   
With

deterioration in employment, industrial production, consumption, lending only green shoots that may be hope for the world economy, ascend in the financial sector. And the reason for the emergence of these germs is simple: the very same financial speculation that produced the current crisis.

State loans and expenses, assistance to the affected financial institution and monetary inflation does not help the real sector. But they create a lot of money available for speculation, and it still keeps on falling. Investors are speculating on commodities, gold, Chinese stock market, the American state bonds - said Mr. Bonner.

this idea develops and Sergey Fursa, an expert company Astrum Investment Management: The second wave of the crisis, which everyone expected since March, has been postponed for a very simple reason. The fact is that financial markets can not fall because of the tremendous liquidity . This bag does not fall, even if the real economy has all the prerequisites for the fall.
    

According to the American specialist on the currency markets, the editor of Master FX Options Trader Bill Jenkins, the world economy is experiencing only the second year of the disaster on the scale and content of almost repeat the Great Depression. And it is possible that there is still a lot of skeletons in the closet, which will lead to more bankruptcies and losses. In the meantime, uncertain recovery rests primarily on the cash infusion to the economy, which carry the government's leading countries in the world. Unfortunately, these measures may give only a brief effect. While the fire piled high with money, but what will happen next is unclear. After all, fundamental changes in the economy did not happen - argues Mr. Fursa.
    

now on anti-crisis program spent a lot of money - about 3% of GDP of those countries that implement such programs. For the state of the real sector of the economy's anti-crisis injections are very limited and short-lived effect. The growth of profits arising from the optimism was generated by a reduction in business spending, layoffs, and, to some degree, subsidized demand, such as the exchange of old cars for new ones. Unfortunately, none of these measures will not bring lasting effect, - says economics commentator BBC Jamie Robertson.

example, due to cancellation at the end of August 2009 bonus programs for the purchase of new cars in the U.S., analysts predict, the summer peak sales of the sharp decline has replaced up to September. And new troubles in the automotive industry - is another blow to the entire economy.
    

In fact, infusion accumulate in the financial sector, and the state of production, employment, or affect world trade is very limited, says Russia's Mikhail Khazin economist, former advisor to ex-President of Russia (1997-1998 gg.). Hence the weak signs of recovery in equity markets, which some experts see as an attempt to fool ordinary bubbles. Transition to a more common methods of economic management is not yet in sight, at least until until the helm is old guard.

First, economic policies continue to define people who were originally the creators of this very economic bubbles - such as the head of the National Economic Council, U.S. Lawrence Summers (Minister of Finance under President Bill Clinton and how the global economy as the chief economist World Bank in early 1990. - Ed.) or the current World Bank President Robert Zoellick (well-known head of international projects Goldman Sachs. - Ed.). Secondly, all possible to develop the economic policy ideas are drawn from the arsenal of mainstream of economic thought, in which not only is there no answers to questions about the crisis, but the questions themselves can only be delivered correctly, - says Mr. Khazin .

risk of contracting
    

current situation in which financial markets are going up, and the real sector falls, can not long persist. In the best case, the top scissor tightened to a bottom. At worst - financial markets will fall to the level of the real sector, which will mark the start of the second wave of the crisis. Since the distortions and contradictions that gave rise to the crisis is not resolved, it is difficult to hope for the first, optimistic, option.
   

While most of the leaders of twenty hesitant to take away the economy crutches. But Mikhail Khazin believes that soon a chance to present the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would have to repay part of the treasury bonds. Pay for kaznacheykam or will newly printed dollars, or withdrawn from programs of state support of financial markets.
    

Basil Koltashov, expert of Russia's Institute of Globalization and Social Movements, argues that a new economic collapse can occur when the policy of quantitative easing spin, finally, the flywheel of inflation and new dollars will depreciate faster than they will print. This could happen, according to the expert, the next year.
   

However, the second wave of crisis may descend before the devaluation of the dollar. Sergey Fursa recalls: the current rise in financial markets is based on positive expectations of players, so the collapse may begin as soon as the vector of expectations will change direction. Maybe it will happen in late September: we know that it was in October, indicators of stock markets always fall below the total, is the traditional month of correction. According to Jamie Robertson, now stock indicators showing the strongest growth. And quite possibly, in October they will begin to crumble.

decline can begin with the Chinese stock market. China - a great hope for the world economy (according to Gosstatupravleniya China for 8 months of 2009, compared to the same period of 2008, industrial production in the country grew by 12.3%. - Ed.). When it becomes clear that China - it's the economy bubbles, Western investors may lose self-control - warns Bill Bonner.

Denis Gorbach

Representatives of the metallurgical and oil and gas industries traded good market
As long as Russia's stock markets are no explicit directions for further development of market trends
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Further decline in oil prices may cause the sale of shares of oil companies and the correction to the level of support on the MICEX index in 1150 points
Speculative recommendation on shares of Gazprom, Polyus Gold, Lukoil, Sberbank and VTB
In 1 half of 2009 net profit of TNK-BP Holding for US GAAP decreased 2-fold to $ 2.34 billion
At the Asian stock markets rebound after weak observed unintelligible beginning of the week
Key Asian indices are consolidated today at yesterday's closing levels
Asian markets in most of today are growing