second week hryvnya slabeet forgotten pace. However, it seems, Tuesday-Wednesday were those for the peak days, after which natsvalyuta should go to the amendment. And it is quite possible that it will recover until recently a relatively stable official rate of NBU 7.7 UAH /USD.

If the National Bank is not in the Interbank ...

volatility in the foreign exchange market, which is observed in the recent past, largely been caused by a weak intervention policy of NBU on Interbank devalvatsionnymi and increased expectations. Typically, the month-end demand for currency rising, largely due to the practice of payments to external contractors. But in this case, the situation is exacerbated by excess liquidity grivnevoy the banking sector, which further promotes the devaluation of hryvnia.

Today, the banking sector in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the correspondent on a daily basis is about 22 billion UAH. - The amount generally equivalent to the sum of balances on correspondent accounts a year ago. But while the banking sector credits economy and hryvna has been claimed. Now, in times of crisis, to find high-quality borrowers is extremely difficult. As a result, banks are more concerned about not issuing new loans and restructuring old ones. As a result, the surplus is not demanded hryvnia.

NBU requirements of banks - starting from 3 August to reserve part of the special account is largely intended to reduce the amount of money in the correspondent. It is estimated that this linking of about 8 billion UAH. But before the entry into force of the document hryvna continued pressure on the currency.

Plus to everything, and now the exporters are not obliged to sell foreign exchange earnings, and, naturally, in a stagnant economy, they are trying to hold it in the accounts. As a result, the number of buyers at the Interbank currency is many times greater than the number of vendors. And in the end - a sharp increase in the dollar in the interbank and cash markets, the latter is largely focused on the first ...

In this situation, without the intervention of the NBU to contain the devaluation of hryvnia unrealistic. The most striking example of this conclusion, - the results of the trading in the interbank foreign exchange market on 27 July, when the NBU did not come out with the intervention in the foreign exchange market. As a result, the average dollar is only one day jumped by almost 5 cop. - Up to 7.8266 UAH. At the same time the following day the National Bank of Ukraine had sold to mezhbanke100 million dollars, it has reduced its average rate of almost 2 cop. - Up to 7.8099 UAH.

As soon as the interbank market rate recorded close to 8 hrn., disposable reaction rate 8,1-8,5 UAH /USD. and, in some cases and 9 UAH /USD. Great spread on currency exchange is the best way to show that the market is not ready to pay dearly for the dollar, but in the wake of panic sellers rushing perestrahovatsya.

Despite the panic, the market can quickly stabilize and to strengthen the hryvnia. NBU message for the people - not to succumb to provocations currency speculators - malorezultativen need real steps the central bank. The stabilization is possible if the daily NBU interventions at least at the level of 50-100 million

 

Forecast for hryvna: Short-term - the positive, long-term - in the fog

Thus, it seems logical that the current spurt course - is all there is more situational and bystroprohodyaschee. The bankers were divided: on the one hand, those who for personal reasons beneficial to maintain a high dollar (or more accurately - a low rate of hryvnia). On the other - those who saw no reason for the sinking of UAH, and explicitly states that the objective reasons or preconditions for this is not.

In any case, with the beginning of the month pressure on the currency market diminish, and you can be more easily consolidate up to 7.7 hryvnia. This is largely achieved through the third tranche of the IMF, the decision on the allocation of which on Tuesday adopted a Board of Directors of the Fund.

Soon

Ukraine received 3.3 billion dollars - this is especially good news for the currency market. Tranche of the IMF would remove another stimulant hryvnia devaluation. In the box you can also add the positive and made a statement prior to acting Minister of Finance Igor Uman that the IMF can proceed to the third revision of the cooperation program with Ukraine for the fourth tranche of the credit stand-by is not in November as previously planned, and in September.

In connection with the lowering of investment attractiveness of Ukrainian economy influx of foreign borrowing this year is problematic. Only the parent foreign companies willing to invest the money in its Ukrainian daughters. Market investment capital rushed to the U.S. market and Western European countries as more profitable and less risky.

As a result, the payment of foreign debts has become the major factor in the devaluation of hryvnia: Ukrainian debtors are forced to buy a currency, a proposal which is limited to the Ukrainian market, and the transfer to creditors abroad. As a result, for the first half of this year, the government and private business has been transferred to foreign investors with more than 6.6 billion dollars on the previous debts.

But debts are not repaid. Until the end of the year will have to pay about 2-3 billion dollars of our most problematic for the debtors are August and December - in the months pripadaet the largest payouts.

Of course, the third tranche of the IMF alleviate this problem. Part of the money the IMF can be used to repay public Eurobond August. This will be a good signal to foreign investors, and also facilitate the negotiation of corporate business restukturaziatsii external debts. Part of the corporate debt of companies will be able to restructure, further reducing the demand for currency. Yes, and domestic hasty pouspokoit.

for example, on Wednesday 29 July at the beginning of the trading in the interbank currency market, the sellers put quotes 8.2 UAH /USD., customers - 8.1 UAH /USD. in the reaction of market expectations. As soon as it was reported tranche IMF - the dollar fell to a level 7,91-8,14 grn.

With respect to any longer-term projections for couples hryvnia-dollar, experts and bankers are trying not to risk their reputations and do not look beyond a month or two, so as not to fall into the list этаких expert weather forecaster. With regard to ordinary citizens, the blitz-poll shows that fewer people are interested in Baks as an object of purchase. First and foremost, of course, bedolagi, pulling payments on loans (it spetsauktsiony NBU does not specifically allow them to jump from the jumps in the Interbank and nalichke), potentialtourists in foreign countries and even some of the few categories. For the majority of the population means for the purchase of basic necessities is increasingly hryvnia. A change of course concerned about the public only as a factor, which can appreciate the goods. Another significant portion of the population (think the growth rate of unemployment) are concerned not so much a question on what course to buy the dollar?, But where to get a little grivnas to buy a little food?.

seems that the current situation there is fundamentally different from the autumn of last year - in the streets near the exchangers are almost there to form azhiotazhny demand. The behavior of the citizens to the currency or hryvnias to the hands, I can say is no longer a prevailing exchange rate issue. All firmly shifted to the higher spheres of Interbank, the calculations Naftogaz, the IMF mission's visit, etc. So the usual appeals some bankers /experts to such small-syakim Ukrainians buying currency and topyaschim hryvnia in panic desire to buy dollars - it is nothing more than a good one mine at a bad play of others.

And since the actions of ordinary Ukrainians virtually ceased to influence the course natsvalyuty, then twitch them over the course of each jump they do not have to - just wait for it as bad weather. Yes, and fellow citizens to report on fluctuations hryvnia /dollar /euro /ruble may now need the amendment to it (of course, with the exception of the official rate of NBU). For example: Today is a speculative exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar increased by this much. Influenced it, such is the objective, and such a subjective factors. But you, dear fellow citizens, this does not respect .... It is a pity only that no power, but actually holds crisis dedollarization Ukrainian economy ...

Okhrimenko Alexander, Ph.D. in Economics (to UNIAN)

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