Investment idea: to buy the summer most liquid shares, sold only after the economic crisis, do not invest in mutual funds, re-deposit contract at current rates.

Gold action
In May

Ukrainian equities continued price: monthly index UX, calculated the Ukrainian stock exchange, rose by 40.5%, the PFTS index - to 28.9%. By early summer, an indicator of Ukrainian stock market has reached 422 points, which corresponds to the level in September 2008. In just five months, the PFTS index gained weight 45%.
Significant

remaining securities in May went up shares Ukrsotsbank (115%), Donbasenergo (38%), Ukrtelecom (30%). Leaders of growth in the stock market since the beginning of the year were mainly облэнерго (Dniproenergo: 75%, Kievenergo: 62%, Donbasenergo: 51%) and banks with foreign capital.

main causes of the increase in domestic stock market indicators in the April-May (before the market fell for a year) - Renewal of investors in global stock markets, as well as Ukraine, the allocation of the second tranche of IMF credit. This extremely expensive blue chips, such as paper and before the crisis were the most liquid: the number of shares in free float of the above-mentioned companies is quite large, so they buy or sell them now is not the problem. It should be noted that the increase in the stock market is largely made possible because of its small volume (daily volume of trades - a few million hryvnia) and a low statistical base (PFTS index in March was at a mere 200 points). Other reasons for подорожания shares Donbasenergo, Ukrtelecom, Kievenergo and other analysts do not see companies - corporate news these enterprises are not yet very bright.
According to experts

AMC UkrSib Asset Management, the current growth of the Ukrainian stock market is speculative in nature, and soon assumed its correction. According to analysts, until the end of summer, the PFTS Index, at best, will fluctuate in the corridor of 400-475 points, and if the national economy begins to recover already this fall, in September-October, PFTS index may drop to 300 points.

Fund in the bag

growth of the domestic stock market has contributed to the rise of yield mutual funds. Last month, Ukrainian investfondy on average had their depositors and about 3% of profits. Since the beginning of the year, investors earned 2.57% (as at 27.05.2009). Yield Funds may be higher if, in the midst of a crisis investmenedzhery is not reduced to a minimum proportion of shares in the funds.

According to the Ukrainian association of investment business, the leaders of growth since the beginning of the year to May 20, began fund CEM agio (23.12%, AMC Commonwealth Asset Management ), TASK Resource (21.23%, AMC TASK-Invest ), Aurora - Growth Fund (13.68%, MC Aurora ). Maximum losses depositors fund Millennium Security Capital (-26.20%).

Control investfondami urge people to buy investment certificates, because now they cost close to nominal (ie very low). However, investing in PIFy - a rather risky exercise and is recommended only for those investors who are planning to withdraw money from funds in a few months. As for conservative investors who wish to securely invest for the long term, it is better to PIFami has not yet been contacted: by the end of the crisis, many asset management companies may go bankrupt - so far the losses are immense majority of AMC.

Deposit podesheveyut

Deposits are still the most profitable investment tool. According to the Prostobank Consulting, at the end of May, deposits in UAH for a period of three and six months were the most profitable: the average interest rate on them came close to 20% annually (19.72% and 19.84% respectively). The maximum rate banks offer primarily funded by deposits (with the possibility of deposit, but without the right to a partial withdrawal), as well as in the case where a depositor opens a deposit in the amount of 10 ths.

shortly bankers forecast decrease in interest on deposits. In April and May saw the influx of funds to natural persons, banks, indicating a gradual restoration of confidence in the banking system. In April-May, the inflow of deposits into the banking system, to be exact - in banks with foreign capital amounted to 3 billion UAH, - says head of the retail business of OTP Bank Alexey Rudnev.

However, the decline in rates is possible only in summer, while autumn finuchrezhdeniya can again begin to increase the yield on deposits. Traditionally, in September, an increase in business, and banks attract more resources. Besides, autumn is not deleted in the second round of economic crisis in Ukraine. In III quarter 2009, the banking system can account for significant losses, which could lead to more bankruptcy in the financial market. However, in September and October are expected to increase the volume of imports in anticipation of the heating season. It also can weaken the hryvnia.

Lion hryvnya

In May, The National Bank has once again let the official exchange rate of hryvnia (since 29.12.2008 it has been reported at around 7,7 UAH /USD). According to NBU № 264 from 30.04.2009, the official rate of hryvnia to the dollar is now determined on the basis of the trading in the interbank foreign exchange market for the previous business day with deviation /-2%. Such changes are made in accordance with the requirements of the IMF in the framework of the next tranche of loan.

As a result, new methods of calculating the official rate of hryvnia against the dollar in May rose by 1.05%. This depreciation of the dollar in the cash market was more significant: -4.5% in May (-6.13% since the beginning of the year) - up to 7,6-7,7 UAH /USD. The reason for the fall of the dollar - the National Bank of tight control over the situation in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the population has less to buy the currency (in fact, the majority of Ukrainians who wanted to invest the money into dollars or euros, have already done so). In April, fellow bought foreign exchange at $ 165.7 million more than was sold (even in March the figure was $ 567 million). In May, as the bankers, the tendency to reduce the demand for the currency continued.

Rather, in the summer of the dollar in the Ukrainian market will remain stable, because NBU will continue to closely monitor the banks. However, in autumn, along with another spiral of crisis, it is possible devaluation natsvalyuty to 8,5-9 UAH /USD.
Eternal

value

Western investors massively buy gold on world markets. According to the World Gold Council, only in the I quarter of 2009 as global demand for gold increased by 38%. In May, precious metals prices continued to rise, reaching pre-crisis point - $ 942 per ounce.

In Ukraine, the official rate of precious metals is also increasing, because in many ways depends on the situation in world markets: 5.7% - in May, 9.3% - since the beginning of the year. And the spot rate of gold in recent years very little change. For a couple of months, the demand for metal from the population declined by an average of 15-20%. Ukrainians refuse to invest in gold because of high spreads: banks buy precious metals in the population of 210-213 UAH per gram, and sell for 266-270 UAH per gram (while the official rate is 230 - 232 UAH). Logically, in a low demand for the metal gold price would fall, but the banks keep it on the same level, not wishing dempingovat. The rates for gold deposits also remain unchanged: The maximum rate of return on such deposits as at the beginning of the year at 5.5% per annum. The resumption of the high demand for gold in the Ukraine, possibly in the case of a regular cycle of crisis.

At the bottom?

According to SV Development, in May, falling house prices has slowed down: the price per month per square meter fell by only 1.14% (a collapse from the beginning of the year amounted to approximately 30%). In this small room (the cheapest squares)even went up a bit: for $ 1-2 thousand per apartment. Some observers believe that the market has reached bottom and now begins to grow. However, despite the slowdown in the fall of the real estate market, while activity among buyers of apartments there - most of the deals in one way or another connected with the exchange of real estate. Most likely, the summer real estate prices remain at current levels - in the period of leave in the real estate market traditionally declines. But what will the market fall - is difficult to predict. If the economy nakroet a second wave of the crisis, real estate prices again collapse.

Opinion month

Dmitry Zinc, chairman of the board of OTP Bank:

- At the end of the first three weeks of May, the net population inflow of funds in banks amounted to approximately 2 billion UAH (in April the figure was at 1.1 billion UAH). The amount of funds in current accounts yurlits declined because of the lack of new credit, many companies reduced capital and small and medium businesses have gone into the shadows. In doing so, the amount of funds on deposit yurlits remained unchanged.

This statistic allows us to talk about the gradual restoration of confidence in the banking system as of the population, and from the company. Important role in the positive dynamics in the deposit market has played a stabilizing the national currency. This clears up the situation with problem banks: large recapitalize insolvent institutions will be at the expense of the state, possibly at some finorganizatsii able to find buyers. In addition, many foreign banks have shown willingness to support their subsidiaries in Ukraine.

However, the end of the crisis in the banking market until early to tell. If the situation will remain stable even two or three months, will begin rehabilitation of the banking industry. Then finuchrezhdeniya resume lending in the first place the real sector. And for that the banking system should be provided with resources for a period of at least one year, while the population is now open deposit accounts at one or two months.

Victoria Rudenko

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