Today"s start of trading on the Russian stock market, with extremely negative external environment, in a crash on major world stock exchanges, was a fairly moderate pessimism about 1,5-1,7% below yesterday"s close. In the future, simultaneously with the opening of European stock exchanges majority of Russian chips increased the downward spiral. At 14:30 Moscow time, the main indicators of the Russian market indexes MICEX and RTS, traded deep in the negative zone. RTS Index on the background of increasing pressure on the ruble of the U.S. dollar looks noticeably worse than the index of the MICEX, lost 4.39% (1398 n). MICEX ruble while declining slightly lower at 3.32% (1349.5 forth). Trades in the ocean today, likely will start prodlozheniem rapid decline after yesterday"s collapse of key indices. In any case, the dynamics of contracts for difference on an index Dow Jones, which is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening, demonstrating the negative dynamic, predicting that the gap down to 40 on, or 0,4%. Yesterday"s trading as the ocean, I remind you, completed another collapse in the leading indexes: Dow Jones has lost 2,613%, closed at 10,002.18 forth the broad market indicator S P500 dropped altogether, boleechem 3%, while its value at the close was 1,063.11 n.

Quotations black gold after neprodolzhitelnogootskoka earlier in the week for yesterday"s day lost more than 5%. Current value of oil futures to near Expiration by Brent-y and WTI are, respectively, had 71.70 dollars /barrel 72.95 U.S. dollars /barrel, about 2 dollars lower than yesterday"s closing of the Russian market.

With regard to quotations Russian "blue chips", then at 14:30 Moscow time, Russia"s main and most liquid stocks exhibit a pronounced negative dynamics. Fall is smooth, wide front: shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel lost 3.16% (4443 USD), Rosneft 2,84% (225.1 USD), Surgutneftegaz 2,91% (24,60 USD) "Lukoil 2,82% (1615 USD)," VTB 3.71% (0.0727 USD), preferred shares, Sberbank 3.53% (67.35 USD), and the leaders of the Russian market by turnovers, Gazprom Sberbank decreased by 3.42% (180.27 USD) 3.81% (81.54 USD), respectively.

It is worth noting that during yesterday"s trading the major U.S. indices, Dow and S P500 broke mid-term rising trend, which was formed in late June last year. The values of these indices at the close was below the boundary of the medium-term trend, suggesting the possibility of a significant change in the situation on stock markets around the world. Now the threat of a full correction looks more than real, and now it makes sense to expect a bear market, at least over the coming weeks. During today"s trading, the Russian stock market is likely also will not stand and closes below the levels of the powerful support which coincides with the boundary of the same medium-term growing trend in the U.S. from June 2009 to remind, the last correction, dated June 2009, amounted to slightly more than 20%, followed by continued growth rynka.Na our view, this scenario is most likely now.

Despite a quite adequate evaluation of emerging markets, in the continuing very low interest rates in Europe and the U.S., as well as the gradual restoration of the real economy, we expect continued growth in the Russian securities market. However, note that the growth potential of the market is not as high as at the beginning of 2009 a1000s part of the most likely, in our opinion, forecast, Russia"s stock market could add about 35% during 2010, with a target level at year-end 1850 to wf RTS index. The main risk for the Russian market during 2010, we consider the possible curtailing of state support the economy in the U.S. and Western Europe, which can be expressed in the reduction of quantitative measures of support and increase interest rates if inflationary pressures rise in the economy. However, we note that the probability of folding antikrizinyh programs in developed economies is low during the first half of 2010, as global economic growth now looks still very tenuous.
China, which became the locomotive of world economy in 2009 and significantly reduce the impact of the crisis on a global scale, at least by the numbers of statistics, for fear of overheating the economy has introduced measures to tighten redundancy rules in the banking system, and also limits the amount of government loans to 25 % compared to 2009 no less pessimistic mood currently prevailing in Europe. Following the December decrease in the sovereign rating of Greece, caused by the alarming rate of increase budget deficit, the new hot spots are Spain and Portugal. Yesterday the representatives of the executive power data gosudartsv said that before 2013, expect increasing fiscal deficits, which even in 2010 appear ominous.

additional pressure on the markets have been yesterday"s negative macroeconomic data from the U.S. about the situation on the labor market. The number of primary applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose, though analysts expect to reduce adverse impact on the labor market.

In these circumstances, we expect the continuation of the correction to the possible short-lived rebounds up and recommend to liquidate speculative positions on the segment of "blue chips". With respect to shares of companies of the second echelon, then this segment we still, keep a positive outlook on the long-term prospects for shares in companies small and mid caps with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend to hold long positions in shares of such companies. Among those we particularly note the action with the highest, in our opinion, the potential growth on the horizon 1-2 years: "Mostotrest," Asha Metallurgical Plant "," WGC-2 "," IDC South "," Severstal "," Ammofos " , preferred shares of Transneft "," Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant, preferred shares of Rostelecom, preferred shares "Apatite", "Belon" preferred shares "Tatneft", "Aeroflot". Possible temporary reduction in prices of shares of these companies we see as a convenient excuse for the resumption of long-term purchases.

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Analysis - Results of the day

Energy, World Stock Market, Currency Forecast ...

Slightly better market the securities of telecommunications companies, in particular, Rostelecom, trading in positive territory small
If the downtrend will continue to evolve, then the quotation will fail far below the level of 1230-1250 points on the MICEX Index