Results of previous day

In the last working day of January, Russia"s stock market made a bid to return to the trajectory of growth.

The RTS index grew at 0.88% to 1473.81 points, indexes MICEX and RTS Standard - at 0.88% and 0.92% to 9827.37 points and 1419.25 points respectively. Trading volumes declined slightly.

After a failed attempt to break the short-term trend down a day earlier, breaking the zone of resistance in the 1420-1423 points on the MICEX Index, the scales tipped back in favor of the bears. Nevertheless, on the side of their counterparts were still trumps in terms of expected strong macroeconomic data, implementation of which further contributed to the preservation of uncertainty has arisen vector of market dynamics in the near future.

Inertia selling, which originated in frustration Thursday at the optimistic market participants on Friday morning, have been developed. The reason for this was the negative closing trades in the U.S., as well as the decision of the Reserve Bank of India to follow the example of its northeastern neighbor, and to raise the allowance reserve for banks. A negative reaction to the fact that instead of the expected increase of 50 basis points, lights stayed on 75 b. subsection, prompting fears of a sharp deceleration of the third Asian economy than in the past been discounted in current prices. The newly emerged, and echoes the tense situation with sovereign debt in the euro zone - the bidders had to take into account the increased CDS in Greece, as well as preventing the agency Moody"s, that Portugal could lose its Aa2 rating to the case in 2011 did not mend their affairs with public finance. On the negative mood disposed by increased attraction to risk-aversion, which has resulted in the strengthening of months until the new maximum dollar against the euro, which threatened to disrupt the well-established stability on the key for Russia"s stock market the oil market.

Nonetheless, most market participants to keep in mind the technical picture of the U.S. stock market, where stock indexes have fallen on key support, from which there is a continuing until very favorable liquidity conditions, we can expect one more hike up at least The technical rebound. Trigger for this could serve as optimistic data on the dynamics of the American economy in the IV quarter of 2009, according to forecasts that few doubted. For this reason, the continuation of the morning selling the most liquid securities not been enthusiastic supporters that helped to stabilize the market above the minimum, which formed in the first hour of trading, and reducing volatility to the output statistics.

The publication of these data showed the validity of such hopes. U.S. GDP in the IV quarter grew by 5.7% (maximum of 2003), substantially exceeding the average forecast of the market (4.7%). The main contribution (3.4 PP) has made this achievement statistics for stocks in the beginning of a cycle of replenishment deserted warehouses. Pleasant impression stimulated an increase in investment, mainly in equipment and software. After completion of the program "cash for avtohlam" contribution of consumer spending, dropped to 2%, however, it also was higher than forecasts of experts.

To the fact that such strong data, together with an increase in the index of personal consumption expenditure (1.4% y /y) above progozov (1.3% y /y) can bring the moment of tightening monetary policy the Fed, market participants have not been given a some attention. As a result, in all markets and Russia"s stock also returned the enthusiasm to buy. Thereafter, it increased the excellent data on business activity index of purchasing managers in Chicago (61.5 against expectations of 58.7), as well as more optimistic than the consensus forecast of 73 p. index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan 74.4 n. Due to this the end of Week "bulls" managed to push MICEX index at arm"s length to 1420-1423 points, again the warm hope of a speedy completion of the short-term trend downwards.

The best momentum compared with the market as a whole demonstrated the representatives of telecommunications (Micex TLC 1.38%) and financial (Micex FNL 1.38%) sectors.

In the oil and gas sector, the overall result (Micex OG 0.69%) was again "stained" Rosneft shares (-0.52%), Surgutneftegaz (-1.52% obyk., scion. -0.52%), which continues to play out the scenario of zero cancellation fees for oil produced in Eastern Siberia. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said at an economic forum in Davos, said that the decision on the introduction of zero tariffs is still temporary, and that after February 1 (and for Vankor field Rosneft March 1) will be final decisions. The negative impact could be here and the decision to include bank Goldman Sachs shares of Rosneft in the list of ideas for sales.

Index metallurgical sector (Micex MM -0.03%) due to spurt the previous day, did not record significant changes. In the energy sector (Micex PWR 0.62%) also felt some fatigue from fresh purchases.

look at today"s market

In the first day of February, Russia"s stock market can go immune to the effects of negative external background. At decoupling"a likely to occur, which provided leadership Russian stock market indices in the global tables of ranks from the beginning of the year, indicates the nature of the previous auction. The current technical picture signals a mood most of the market participants on the third attempt to succeed in passing bars in 1423 points to an index MICEX and the formal end of the short-term downtrend"a. When implementing this scenario could open the way to 1450 points, while favorable circumstances - will be implemented elevation formations, inverted head-to-shoulder ", which would approach the maximum values from the beginning of the year (1485 points).

On the conservation of this optimistic view of the market will be judged in the event of return initiatives in the hands of "bulls" in early trading. The opening will take place with a break down within the interest and possible psychological sales, which may lead to the testing zone in 1390-1400 points on the MICEX. Skin below the specified milestone "get destroyed" a favorable scenario, so after a morning Drawdown bulls should not fall down and absorb the spirit prevailing price levels as an opportunity to enter the market, otherwise all their work in the previous trading session will be made in vain.

rollback from the levels reached at the end of trading on Friday will be "programmed" a sharp change in the situation on Wall Street, on the basis of previous trades (SP 500 -0.98%), where different data on GDP for the IV quarter was not enough to form a rebound from goal Supports under a stock indicators. On the side of the "bears" in the morning playing and the situation on the currency and oil markets, which have been updated recent lows: EUR /USD 1.3878, WTI $ 72.72/barr. Prevailing mood at the auctions in Asia (Shanghai composite -1.68%, Hang Seng -0.55%, Nikkei 225 0.07%) also will facilitate the weakness in early trading. Here again dominated by sellers on the background of the publication in the Economic Information Daily Information that lending in China in January reached 1.6 trillion. yuan, which supports the prevailing concerns in continuing the tightening of monetary policy by the governor. Index PMI in industrial sphere, commits along with increasing business activity 11 months in a row (55.8 v. prev. 56.6), also increased price pressures, reinforce such a view. The only bright spot currently is the only positive finding in the area of futures for U.S. indices (SP 500 0.09%).

Day on the balance of power will affect PMI in industrial sphere of Germany (11-55), the euro zone (12-00), Britain (12-30) and USA (18-00). In the 16-30 come out sensitive data on personal income and spending in the U.S. (16-30). In the 18-00 will begin his speech the head of the U.S. Treasury Timothy Geithner. Its quarterly reports today represent Exxon Mobil, Gazprom and Rosneft.

After a morning "gap down likely stabilization of Russia"s stock market
Toward the end of the session may increase trading volume and the formation of a more definite trend
Today the attentiond49of Russian investors will be drawn to statistics by industrial activity in the euro area
In the first ten days of January, "The first cargo company to 5,2% increase in coal transportation from the Krasnoyarsk railway stations
Court of Appeal upheld the FAS Russia and ordered the "daughter" LUKOIL "to pay a fine of 18.391 million rubles
Trading revenue "Seventh Continent" in 2009 rose 12% to 49 billion rubles
European stock markets finished the day in positive territory
Forex: Euro grows up a bit in the Forex against U.S. dollar
Morgan Stanley plans to hire hundreds of traders around the world