NBU will not give money Tymoshenko
A meeting of the Board of the National Bank. It adopted framework for monetary policy for the next year …
Sep 12th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsBut far more interest from members of the NBU raised the subtleties of the regulator of relations with the government and the Verkhovna Rada.
NBU Council meeting was a formal and forced. This Saturday will be a meeting of the Government, which must be approved draft budget for 2010
Not yet approved by the Government's macroeconomic indicators. As soon as we get them, will be another meeting of the Council, on which we otkorrektiruem our forecasts, - said the head of the NBU Council Petro Poroshenko.
According to him, the Council invited to a meeting of representatives of the Ministry of Economy, and they confirmed the predictions for 2010, which were at the NBU. This GDP growth of 3% (the level of -4% in 2009), inflation 12% (consumer) and 13,6% (industrial). Also expected a positive trade balance at $ 0.5 billion
Based on these indicators, he found that in 2010 the monetary base should grow by 6% - to 197.87 billion UAH. and the money supply (M3) - 8%, to UAH 556.985 billion. At the beginning of September, they were 186.7 and 515.73 billion UAH. respectively. That is actually the amount of money in the economy should grow. We can not increase the volume of funds in circulation, if the GDP does not grow, - said the head of the NBU Council.
At the same time the foundations of monetary policy indicator rate is excluded. Will continue the practice neobnarodovaniya prediction of the course. We continue to maintain a policy of floating rate, which depends on GDP growth, the economy and balance of payments. Course - is a derivative phenomenon, - explained Poroshenko.
Thus, the only reference point is 8.6 grn. /$ 1, under which the government impose budget. There is a persistent belief that it was after the announcement that target people ran in to buy the currency exchangers. Imagine that on the street course 8 hrn. $ 1, and then announce that you can easily earn an additional 60 cents, - said a board member of the NBU, who wished to anonymity.
Among other items, the Council discussed the list of anti-crisis measures. We really should consider a strategy of anti-crisis measures in monetary policy. While it is certain decisions. But I hope that in 2010, all provisions will be collected in a single document, - stressed Poroshenko.
He did not go into details. It is possible that the future of the list include methods to support the liquidity of banks which are funding important state programs. Such a recommendation, the Council introduced a rule.
One member of the NBU Council spoke about the dispute, which arose during the meeting. Arseny Yatsenyuk proposed to block the possibility of issue for the government. To this end he proposed to prohibit the board to redeem government bonds under any pretext. Council discussed this option a long time and decided: to recommend to the board until the next meeting of the National Bank to refrain from buying Government Bonds - for whatever purpose or needed money, - said one member of the Council after the meeting.
Peter Poroshenko did not directly comment on the situation, but acknowledged that such a proposal was received and it had a long discussion. But now we have considered the basics for 2010 proposal, which introduced Arseniy Petrovich respect to implementing the Framework for 2009 at the next meeting we will look at information on the implementation of the Fundamentals for the year. And look at the implementation of forecast parameters of money supply and monetary base. Sources through which the NBU will monetize these or other government program , - said the head of Poroshenko. He promised that the Council will require tough to withstand performance, recorded in the framework for monetary policy for 2009
He told about another delicate moment. The National Bank found a special way to implement the law on minimum emission of 10 billion UAH. financing of Euro 2012. Council approved a much smaller estimate of NBU for 2009
law assumes that in 2009 the regulator will earn 9.8 billion UAH. And to a certain point it was like the truth. To date, the banking system is at the NBU refinance more than $ 80 billion UAH. Even with an interest rate of 15% this will bring an annual income of $ 12 billion UAH. Add to this can yield on Government Bonds, which NBU redeemed on other operations, interest on reserves, and much more.
The difference between revenues and expenditures of NBU for 2009 will be approximately 600 million UAH. First of all, the decrease is due until that preliminary formation of reserves under government debt, which should be framed in securities of the Government, - said Poroshenko.
Later he added that due to currency government debt, obtained in 1993-1996. of $ 1.1 billion, If he had not furnished the government securities, the National Bank should build on it reserves amounting to 60% at the current rate, - said the head of the NBU.
Also, according to Poroshenko, to constantly create reserves issued on refinancing of 80 billion UAH. Some of these loans is a problem with debt. NBU, as well as any other bank, to create reserves - that is, to reduce profits. What, in fact, did the Council of the NBU. At this time in order not to give money for the financing of Euro 2012.
This is a reasonable move, because the parliament can overcome a presidential veto on the law on the financing of Euro 2012. In this case we will have to fulfill the law and list everything that the National Bank has earned this year, - said Poroshenko. According to him, this amount is 672 million UAH. It is easy to see that it is very different from the desired 9,8 billion UAH.
However, the Government has already figured out how to remove the money from the NBU. According to Poroshenko, the amendments to the Law on Budget for 2009, the Government proposes to return the two articles - № 84 and № 86. In the beginning, they were deleted at the request of the IMF.
But by the time they (the government) have already withdrawn from the National Bank a few billion. We could not refuse, because it would violate the requirements of the law, - said a source in the NBU Board.
In the case of an amendment in its present form the government can compel the National Bank to purchase any amount of Government Bonds, and for any purpose. If this bill passes, signed and brought into force, the discussion will move to another plane - or should not have to honor the law. I think that this is not the correct formulation of the question, - he said.
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