Every time happily report to his Cabinet of the receipt of the next tranche of the IMF, the question arises: what a joy? For any normal person, taking into debt, willy-nilly just thinks about how to give. But our government has, at least publicly, the issue is given. Although the cost would be - will not give future generations, and we are with you in the coming years. After payment of these debts will fall on the state budget.

rate, which increases the national debt, can not fail to impress. Within 10 months of crisis, Ukraine has taken from the IMF and World Bank more than $ 10 billion of domestic bonds, and printed goszayma (Government Bonds) for almost $ 7 billion in total - $ 17.2 billion, which is two times the total national debt before the crisis, or 146 billion UAH . on the current market rate of 8,5.

At the same time, the budget expenditures for the first half of 2009 are totaled 110 billion UAH., so we have borrowed so much that from the beginning, the whole country in general might not have to pay taxes on it and it would not affect. We, of course, everything is different - taxes are not only forced to pay, but also increase. A foreign borrowing is flying to the maintenance of the hryvnia (meaning that the banks, people and corporations to cheaper to buy foreign currency for payments on debt) to pay for gas and patching holes in the budget. This is not bad, of course, but the question remains: how to give something going?

the end, the national debt will become even greater. It is unknown how much the government of Yulia Tymoshenko's Government Bonds prints to save Naftogaz to pay wages and so on - this is not particularly pay attention (it's been practically invisible the July 18 billion UAH. To Naftohaz, which reacted only exchange market). But the foreign debt will increase by another $ 5 billion - the next tranche of the IMF's $ 3.8 billion and $ 1.2 billion from the World Bank (and this does not include a loan of 2 billion that the EU promises to provide for the purchase of Russia's gas).

That is, even if the Cabinet does not print Government Bonds (which is unlikely: make sure to print) and be limited only by external borrowings, by the end of the year it is our duty to reach nearly $ 40 billion Or $ 855 for each inhabitant of Ukraine without interest.

Election 2009-nd the very least we reach. And then the reckoning will come ...

What will. in 2010 it still will not look so bad: the terms of the IMF in the coming year we still do not start paying for the loan and can even get its remnants in the form of the fifth tranche of $ 2.4 billion - it just should sufficient to service external debt. But since 2011-the first in three years we will have to spread on these goals 11-12% of the budget and only in 2014 will experience a serious relief. However, it is a percentage of the 2009 budget, but no one forecast in the coming years does not give the rapid GDP growth, even compared with the current decadent level.

That is, we can assume that the size of the budget has seriously increased. However, Government Bonds now buys National Bank. And it can bend to voluntary postponement of debt repayment for 10 years Like this. But this is only slightly ease the burden - in fact with foreign creditors failed to do so. Of course, they can go to debt restructuring. But only in exchange for some political or economic concessions. And the question what to pay would then not idle.

What could be enough

For clarity, can be transferred 32 billion hryvnia ($ 3.8 billion), servicing the state debt in 2011 into something more real. For example: the budget of the Ministry of Education in 2009 - 12.4 billion, the Ministry of Health - 4.1 billion, the Interior Ministry - 8.3 billion, the Defense Ministry - 7,4 billion It is for these 32 billion could include schools, hospitals, army and police during the year! However, we note that 32 billion - that we have calculated at the rate of hryvnia to the dollar 8,5. But he can be much worse ...

The problem is that loans are eating

People's Deputy, an economist at the PSD Ksenia Lyapina considers that made loans become a problem, but not for the fact that they have been taken, but due to the fact that the Cabinet is spending it on consumption: Would not it be okay if the money borrowed, came to development, which would give them in thefuture. But they are spent on maintaining the status quo.'s easy to spend. Cabinet is working on a day we would stand for the night so hold.

It is the duty of the country by the end of the year will reach one third of GDP, far higher than in the past - said ex-Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk. - Right now, according to my calculations, the debt is 5000 UAH. for all Ukrainians, and by the end of the year This figure will rise to 8000. so that the budget-2010 will be no less complex than the 2009 Budget. And given the fact that last year had taken a large number of short-term loans at high interest rates, debt, significantly complicate the situation for the country.

But a member of the budget committee of parliament from BYuT Oleg Lyashko said that the IMF loan will not be a problem: Credit is taken on acceptable terms for interest and maturity, so it was silly to refuse it. The question - whether the economy will reach a 2011-m level at which the payment of extra 25-30 billion hryvnia will be painless, Lyashko said: Hopefully. His colleague on the faction Natalia King was more specific: Thanks to the preferential loans from the IMF, we have improved the country's rating, which fell last year, saved the banking system, while not reducing sotsstandarty. So in subsequent years, even if there are problems with payment of debts, for Ukraine not be a problem to find ways to refinance. Moreover, all trends 2010-nd will have growth, but in 2011, this growth will be stable.

Dmitry Korotkov

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