Medium-term prospects of the dynamics of the ruble in relation primarily to the USD given to bear in nature
Sep 25th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsWorld segment on the highly risky assets is consolidated. The development of this process as a whole contributed to yesterday received for players macroeconomic statistics. Germanic business climate index, calculated CESifo Group, in September of this year risen to a mark 91,3 Fri against 90.5 in the previous month, but was below its average predictive value was 90.5 Fri
indicator of business expectations, also according to the CESifo, this month amounted to 95,7 Fri at an average prognosis and significance of the previous month brake equal to 96,6 and 95,0 Fri respectively.
sales in the secondary housing market, the U.S. in August this year declined to 5.24 million units. against 5.24 million in July this year and the average analysts expected value of this indicator is equal to 5,35 million
It seems that the above information to reflect its traditional August slowdown in investment activity in the global economy, which this year was probably strengthened by the influence of macroeconomic uncertainty created by the crisis. In this regard, such statistics seem, could not yet give rise to significant disappointment in the market prospects for recovery of the global economy.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock indicators in recent weeks, came close enough to their fair in terms of expected values in the medium term EPS and PE, the companies included in the calculation of their indices.
Against this background, the consolidation quote EUR /USD - perhaps in a rather wide range kursovom in the coming weeks is likely to continue.
correct such a situation, it is possible, can coming from the Oct. 6 publication of quarterly financial statements of the American corporate sector. In addition, it is important to note that according to preliminary information received from the summit of G20, the world's leading country, followed by the Federal Reserve, held on Wednesday its regular meeting intend to continue a policy of active macroeconomic stimulus until then. According to a spokesperson of one delegation, all the big mills are going to avoid premature Twenty collapse of macroeconomic support, while the process of restoring the world's GDP does not show signs of potential sustainability in the long term.
From the perspective of the medium-term potential of the depreciation of EUR /USD stillseem relevant. The effect of continued active enough to reduce quotations GBP /USD at the rate of other European currencies in this case should not be underestimated. The latest statement of the Bank of England M. King, and a member of MRS K. Barker testify in favor of continuing in the coming quarters so-called policy quantitative easing BDE, aimed at supporting the stability of the British financial market and the economy as a whole. Number of rates funding for global economic recovery, it seems, has a tendency to increase. A similar situation we saw in September - November 2008, when, inter alia, the assets of the ECB has more than 50%. The development of such a trend in the medium term is quite capable to support the indicators of the relative value of USD on FX.
Quotes RUR to USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today to 11:00 Moscow time were 30.13 and 36.51 rubles. against, respectively, 30.11 and 36.53 rubles. in morning trading on Thursday.
In the short run may be some technical decline in the relative value of Russia's currency against the world's leading currencies under the influence of the overall fluctuations of world foreign exchange market occurred in recent days.
Medium-term prospects of the dynamics of the course RUB respect, above all - to the USD, is also represented as bear in nature.
However, due to the continued high rates of price growth of financial markets in Russia, and against the background of continuing low inflation rates of Russia, the scenario is relatively significant weakening of Russia's currency on the international FX, might be postponed.
Comon - the first social network of traders. Opportunity to learn from experienced traders. Sign
| log in and see the material;;
Your score will be the first! |
|
The Fed express understanding that the country's economy, while beginning to revive, remains fragile ...
Lower oil prices will continue to put pressure on shares of commodity companies
Svyazinvest plans to soon adopt the strategy of further development of the holding
Attempts to gain a foothold in the stock market reached levels ended in failure
Forex Market on 25/09/2009
Naftogaz is not able to avoid a formal default
G20 countries do not intend to suspend the program of economic incentives
What's new in troubled banks (21-25 September)
G20 may agree to increase the share of developing countries in the IMF from 43% to 48% and not 50%
The Fed sees the first revival, will slow down the purchase of securities gradually
