Judging by outstripping growth of companies from the financial sector to foreign markets, in favorites, today may be banks
Oct 20th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsSince the beginning of a new week, the growth in world stock markets resumed. Strong corporate reports stimulate the inflow of capital in risky assets, forcing the players to leave the protective assets. As a result, raw materials and stocks continue to rise, the dollar is weakening, and the yield treasuries - grow, while rates on two-year securities have already reached the 2-year highs. Russia market today should continue to rise against the background of the take-off quotations of oil to $ 80 per barrel (WTI). Segldnya MICEX index may reach levels of 1380-1400 Section of MICEX.
Corporate reporting has become a major driving factor in U.S. trading. The Dow rose 0.96% to Section 10092, the index SP - on 0,94% to 1,097.91 p. Satisfactory performance on the profits from Caterpillar triggered the explosive growth of quotations in the American market in mid-auction. At Postmarket reported better than expected Apple. According to Thomson Reuters emerging company reports submitted to the SP, exceeding initial expectations, thus allowing the hope for further positive momentum as corporate profits and stock indexes.
another blow to the U.S. dollar, meanwhile struck Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: more on the weekends, he said that the financial crisis was a signal for global rebalancing. What is a rebalancing He did not elaborate, but many have concluded that we are talking about a potential capacity savings rate borrowing countries (like USA), and vice versa, enhancing cost countries with excess capital (like China). The result are selling the dollar, selling it to a mark of $ 1.4790 per euro.
However, the rebalancing is also in the market expectations on interest rates. Bank of Australia, not so long ago to increase the basic rate, makes quite clear hints at further increase borrowing costs while maintaining the current positive trends in the economy. It is clear that waiting for a series of positive makrostatistiki for several months, the Fed can go tightening of monetary policy. Thus, the flight of capital from the asset protection may be partly due to fears of a collapse in the debt markets, which resulted in bond yields will take to the levels that would take into account both inflation expectations and prospects for raising the base rate by leading central banks. Since early October, ten-year treasuries yield has jumped from 3.15% to about 3,5%. With the end of this rebalancing returns, which could last several more weeks, the stock market is waiting for a significant correction
way or another, but today investors are determined to buy. In Asia, indexes grow, drawing support in the growth of quotations of raw materials, strong accountability Apple and, strangely enough, the prospects for a rate hike in Australia, which, according to investors, reflects the strong economy. Index MSCI Asia Pacific adds 0,9%. Among the sectors is to provide a strong momentum stocks metallurgists and banks.
On the background of the take-off quotations of black gold to new highs this year and further weakening of the dollar, the domestic indices today should continue to increase. While maintaining a high investor appetite for risk, the MICEX index in the coming weeks (one or two), how could such a pace to reach levels of 1450-1500 n.
We believe that after a sufficiently restrained dynamics during yesterday's trading demand comes in the paper oil companies, although objectively, the domestic oil industry today is the most overrated sector in the market. From the standpoint undervalued in relation to the highs of last year might look nice metallurgists. Reporting Norilsk Nickel was better, despite a sixfold decrease in profits. Moreover, while maintaining the current metal markets, the management of MMC is building a very positive forecasts for the second half of the year.
According to outstripping growth of companies from the financial sector to foreign markets, in favorites, today may be banks.
The explosive growth in Rostelecom is likely due to the expectations of today's meeting of the Board of Directors of Svyazinvest, which will be decided the fate of the current reorganization plan of the holding. It is possible that the fact of the decision in Rostelecom will commit, however, recall that we estimate in the case of consolidation of shares of Rostelecom MRK its fundamental value exceeds the current market by 40-45%. Situation spoils almost zero liquidity Rostelecom.
In mobile telecoms alarming drop in revenues of MTS (20%), reflecting an overall decline in demand for mobile services and may result in not only sales of shares of MTC, but also a competitor - VimpelCom.
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Raised oil prices and general optimism on world stock markets will ensure growth market of Russia in the early hours of trading on 1-2%
Today's trading on the equity market will be very disturbed
During the day, Russia's indexes will storm the local maxima
Today the Bank of Russia may again reduce the refinancing rate
Today, for speculative profit-taking in shares of oil and gas sector and banks
Front-runner session will be the telecommunications industry, where the driver of growth will be the outcome of the Board of Directors of Svyazinvest
The most interesting today will look like banks and companies in the oil and gas sector
While the high level of liquidity supports the inflated stock prices
If the data on the tab of new homes in the U.S. and reporting Caterpillar does not let you down, then rallies to Russia's market continues
