It may look like the market shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel
Aug 13th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsOn Wednesday, the Russian stock market after the Drawdown to the minimum of August felt a strong upward flow on expectations of positive outcomes of FOMC meetings Fed.
RTS completed the day at 1025.12 points with a loss of 0.83%. MICEX Index, by contrast, grew by 1.6% to 1086.41 points. Trading volume increased.
By the opening of the Russian stock market once again concern to market participants led to the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market, where in the absence of the fundamental prerequisites for success was a new attack on the ruble. Sensitive devaluation of the Russian currency against the background of regular deep dives the Chinese stock market, where sales have been provoked by statements Mintorgovli PRC tayascheysya threat of falling exports, the negative impact of which is not able to compensate for economic incentive programs, has led to the preservation and on the Russian stock market pressure from the vendors.
At the hands of bears have come to the same declining futures on U.S. indices and the price of oil, as well as care MICEX index below the minimum for the previous three sessions (1066 points) that triggered technical selling. By noon they had entered into the taste of that time to not only fill the gap of unfinalized August 3 (1053-1058 points) on the MICEX index, but this svozit stock index below the psychological level of 1050 points, which by the bulls gave them a warm welcome.
At this point, according to dealers in the foreign exchange market, the cost of a basket bivalyutnoy closer to the level of 39 rubles, which led the Bank to intervene in Russia, which made it clear that it is not intended to tolerate such a bacchanalia. Speculative attacks on the ruble and the very beginning of ebb after the oil price after reaching the lower limit established in the last days of the corridor in the $ 68.9-69.8/barr. for WTI class began to grow. Such movements in the currency and oil markets were rising in unison with the anticipation of the FOMC meeting the Fed optimistic on European stock markets. This eventually led active bidders record profits on short positions and to consider options for purchase in the hope of a technical rebound upwards. Once the most liquid chips in the last downward momentum lost by more than 5% of its market value, entered the field oscillators pereprodannosti, and ambient background has been improved psychologically it was not difficult.
publish statistical data on Europe, as well as the statement made by the head Mervyn King Central Bank of the UK with an annual report on inflation, a significant impact on the market are not brought. And the stock and commodity and currency markets at this time began the process of self-recovery to the left of the previous days levels. His contribution to this wave of added encouraging reports from the homebuilding company Toll Brothers, and a network of supermarkets Macy s, which raised hopes for the revival of consumer demand in the United States.
The Russian stock market so far has reached the zero mark on the MICEX index, followed by left lateral drift, waiting for the start of the trading in the United States and data on foreign trade in the United States. Published data do not change the prevailing balance of power bulls and bears as well as have better forecasts, but on the other side were unfortunate, because the trade deficit did increase that would affect adversely the calculation of GDP in the II quarter.
Inthe end, the question of how the state of the portfolio to complete the day in anticipation of the Fed meeting, was for many resolved only with the opening of American playgrounds. Almost vertical takeoff quotations on Wall Street on hopes that, in an accompanying commentary monetary authorities are more optimistic assessments of the state of the American economy, and escape from the corridor side-up in oil prices triggered a similar response and the Russian actions, influenced by the MICEX index soared by the end of the day to 1090 points.
market looked better metallurgical sector (Micex MM 2.43%) due to the dynamics of shares of gold mining companies - Polimetall (2.5%), Polyus Gold (3.59%) and CMI (4.23%) and financial sector (Micex FNL 1.5% ) due to worldwide interest in these shares in anticipation of the Fed decision.
looked weaker market oil and gas sector (Micex OG 1.09%), where the heavy lifting, among other papers were Gazprom (0.41%), Tatneft (0.57%) and Lukoil (0.85%).
Looking at this market:
The American stock market has returned to itself of optimism against the backdrop of the FOMC meeting the Fed (SP 500 1.15%). Monetary authorities have left U.S. interest rates, as expected, no change in the range of 0-0,25%, in the long term. Remained the same as the amount of redemption of securities, but it was decided to postpone the end of the action from September to October. Reducing the effect of implementing the policy of quantitative mitigation, the Fed thus to reassure those who worry that the controller can be tightened to exit strategy and miss the control over inflation, as well as those who feared that the rapid phase-out incentive program could stifle economic recovery . Were taken into account the interests and optimists who take such decisions as a sign of increasing confidence in the Fed that a recession in the economy recedes. Last seen in the passage about the economy, noting that since the last meeting in June, economic activity will stabilize, creating a framework for the gradual restoration of sustained economic growth. Strengthened optimism in the market and corporate events - raising the recommendation on a number of insurance companies, as well as encouraging reports from the homebuilding company Toll Brothers, and a network of supermarkets Macy s, which raised hopes for the revival of consumer demand in the United States. Alarming for the bulls It is a fact that the achievements of the market after the announcement of the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting at the end of the trading were wiped out. However, growing up in futures on Thursday, the U.S. indices (SP 500 0.23%) levels, this effect.
At the auction in Asia (MSCI Asia Pacific 1.6%) after the opening of a high-traders in general have been slow to load portfolio securities. Again, weaker regional stock indicators is Chinese Shanghai Composite, added only 0.32%. The prices of oil WTI ($ 70.78/barr.) Are slightly higher than for the closure of the Russian stock market on Wednesday. In industrial metals where the situation looks optimistic - copper, for example, has updated the maximum from the beginning of the year, nickel was trying to do the same.
The Russian stock market on Thursday will open with gepom up no less than 0.5%, and then continue its journey north. Help him in the expectation of favorable figures on the dynamics of eurozone GDP (13-00 Moscow time), after unexpectedly strong it was in Germany (0.3% of /k against expectations of -0.2%), as well as favorable trends in the domestic foreign exchange market markets and commodities. However, in future, be expected to mitigate the euphoria and a sober assessment of the situation. In the afternoon, perhaps for the consolidation of levels in anticipation of the downward vector data on retail sales and number of applications forunemployment benefits (16-30 Moscow time) that will determine future trends. Resistance can now speak in the zone of 1100-1110 points on the MICEX index, which will run the upper limit downward corridor. Near these levels can be changed tactical Long again in short, medium players to remain in the shorts. It may look like the market shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel.
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The reason for changing the situation on the Russian market could become today's statistics from the United States
In the case of enhancing the positive mood of the contest Polyus Gold may test the 1300 mark in rubles
As a favorite of today may be the paper Sberbank, Lukoil and Rosneft
Growth potential for the SP500 index allows you to count on achieving a level of 1120 points
Today is expected to fairly busy news day
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