Inflation: annual results and dosage information
current inability to obtain data on all items in the CPI due to the realization that not everything in our calculations smoothly …
Jan 23rd, 2010 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsWhen almost the entire country rested in the first New Year"s days, the staff of the State Statistics Committee in Kiev and regions of intense work, summing up the December and annual price changes. Already on January 6 at the site office was presented a bouquet of 30 price indices, as well as a special express bulletin prices as a New Year rally.
In general, when compared with the 2008-m, the CPI in 2009 was almost two times lower - more precisely, below exactly 10.0 percentage points. And the leadership of the Ministry of Economy proudly announced that the rate of inflation (in the sense, the consumer price index) is the best achievement of the country"s economy in recent years, as the increase was "only 12,3%. This, like, really well. For the IMF has promised us inflation of 16%, and the World Bank - in 14%. However, amid forecasts of these two "dishonored" organizations such as the weather was completely forgotten by the mother of the Ministry of Economics and Government, who promised to meet with the CPI increase 9.5%. But perhaps you should not get upset, since I came out, so on so. "
The December CPI gave a very small, uncharacteristic of previous years, an increase of 0,9%. Among the most important should be given the usual seasonal price increases for milk at 9,8%, butter - by 8,6, vegetables - 6,1, including potatoes - by 7,6%. For these groups of food price increases will continue in the following winter and spring months. A symmetric reduction of prices in December were not observed. It may be noted only cheapened by 6,8% for petrol and 2,9% - fruit, probably due to lemons, whose prices have doubled in a couple of months ago, as in garlic, in the fight against domestic and imported avian influenza.
more important annual changes in prices. In general, over the past year the CPI rose by 12,3%, while the 2008-th - to 22,3%. According to some fairly significant products and services, price trends were more significant. Prices of sugar rose by 83.9%, butter - by 35,4, milk - by 16.6, soft drinks (probably due to their inclusion in international standards of coffee, tea and cocoa) - at 24.7, fish - 14,1, vegetable oil - 11,7%. At 9,9% corn has risen in price. The remaining food prices have risen to 10%. But the eggs fell by 6,3%, vegetables - by 5.5, including potatoes - by 6,5%. Significantly, due to the increase in excise tax rates, increase in prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco - at 38,4%.
from other non-food goods and services particularly strong, despite the Herculean efforts of the Antimonopoly Committee, increased the price of drugs - even at36,3%. Since January last year, exactly half-risen-mail services. And another jumped 46.0% for the year the price of gasoline. A group of utilities at 40,0% increase in sewer rates (probably more correct to call them drainage system, as indicated in the accounts sent to us) and 27,9% - on water. For the rest of the positions presented in the annual index, the increase in prices was less significant. However, according to our scope: for clothing and footwear - on 7,6%, transport - 19,2, recreation and culture - 11,8, education - 15,1%.
The data on the CPI in Ukraine as a whole would be worth more to add that appears on the site of Goskomstat Jan. 11 about the regional indexes. Last year, prices rose the most in the Crimea - by 14,8 and the Odessa region - by 14,4%. And the lowest growth was in the Kiev region - and Kirovograd 9,5 - 9,7%. In group indices hard to understand why, for example, education services in the Chernivtsi region for the year grew in price by 23,3, and in Kherson - only 2,3%. Or, in Sebastopol index of alcohol and tobacco products increased by 52,4, and in the Chernivtsi region - only 28,5%. But residents of the capital can reassure the fact that during the year, with an extremely complicated situation with utility bills, they have risen in price seems to be tolerated - only 25,6%. Although this figure was the highest in Ukraine (in the whole country - 8,2%, but, not in Kiev, the greatest increase in the Crimea - 12,6%). Because the bill for these services should be kept for three years, people of Kiev to compare the December bills 2008 and 2009, adding to the correctness and the payment of electricity tariffs do not change and see how the figures coincide with goskomstatovskimi.
dosage information
Each month, residents of the 46 millionth of Ukraine makes about 1,2-1,4 billion purchase of goods and services. And price changes to them must be fully and objectively reflected in the CPI. It is clear that to achieve this is not so simple, given that the index in Ukraine, as in all other countries, is based on sample registration prices.
Recall that in Ukraine the basket of CPI includes 296 most significant products (259) and services (37). For general and group indices (eg, food, transportation, education) individual indexes are weighted by the share of each product in total consumer spending. That is, for the calculations are only two components - a set of products and services and their weight.
weight of all products, not only in Ukraine as a whole, but each of the eight large geographical areas are represented at the State Statistics Committee, and in Ukraine as a whole - and in the statistical yearbooks "ІÐ½Ð´ÐµÐºÑи spozhivchih ціÐ½. But for all 296 products and services included in the CPI, they are unfortunately not published. Looks are not very logical. It is assumed that users are quite the data in general, major groups and only 18 products (eg, sugar, oil, gasoline, postal service). It is likely that for most people it is. But as if anyone needed more complete information? And it is needed, for example, scientists, concerned with pricing. But you can not get it. While the Law of Ukraine "On State Statistics" (Article 14) provides for equal access to statistical information of businesses and individuals.
Many have not faded from memory a few years ago, then First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Azarov, commenting on the change in the CPI for the month, reproachfully said that citizens did not appreciate the true worth of price cuts of cabbage by 37%. And they could not estimate because the data did not have. And if some of the publications is not so long ago, somehow managed to cajole the Ministry of Economy additional information on changing prices of onions, carrotseb5and beets, in recent months to receive this information, and "they put a muzzle." We add that even in the U.S. President is unable to obtain data on changes in the CPI for ten minutes before they are published for all potential users.
Apparently, the current inability to obtain data on all items in the CPI due to the realization that not everything in our calculations smoothly, it is necessary to improve the methodology and practice of the index for some product groups. This is particularly true in Ukraine rather weighty horticultural groups with significant intra-seasonal price fluctuations, and several other aspects.
Guide Goskomstat has always reiterated that our statistics are not designed for statisticians and for all categories and groups of users. In general, this is true. But I would like to make this thesis freely distributed and the CPI.
Andrew Revenko
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