In the coming weeks, the reduction rate may continue even in the face of further improving the situation on the Russian markets
Aug 10th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsStatistics published on Friday the U.S. Department of Labor as a whole was significantly better than expected on the market. The index of the dynamics of the number employed in industries outside of agriculture United States, according to the specified data, in July, TG was -247 000, with an average forecast of this index is equal to -345, 000. It is also important to note that the index for June and May 2009 have been revised to increase to levels of -443 000 and -303 000 to -467 000 and -322 000 previously.
The influence of the credit crisis as on the U.S. economy is very uneven. A significant decline in the construction and automotive America in recent quarters, apparently due to their substantial reliance on market borrowing trend indicators, which was established during the financial boom. At the same time, in such industries as the fuel and energy complex, chemical industry, food production, and several others, as well as in the services sector the situation was much more stable. They are not signs of overproduction, and their zakreditovannost in general was not sufficient to create a sustainable process of decline in business activity.
These statistics, in the case of maintaining its current character, in the coming months, is in favor of the revision to the increase in medium-term projections of changes in the U.S., the world's GDP by the world's leading research institutions.
Against this background, increasing the value sector, on the highly risky investments in the coming weeks, may continue under the influence of increased flow in this segment of the Asian fund, first of all - the Japanese investors, and because of the mitigation of monetary policy leading European Central Bank. Characteristic in this context, it seems fairly sharp decline in quotations yen marked on FX almost immediately after the Friday of the U.S. labor market, as well as obviously demonstrated in the last trading day last week, the relative value of the negative dynamics of the euro to the dollar, despite the growing dominated in recent years, a positive correlation rate EUR /USD and the price movements of investments segment of the risk.
noticeable negative impact on the course of a single European currency, in this perspective, it seems, will the likely increase in coming quarters of administrative pressure on European banks, in order to stimulate activity of credit institutions to provide loans to real industrial and consumer sectors of the economy Europe.
In particular, the German Chancellor A. Merkel last week said that if it were re-occupied by the post in September 2009, it will provide public entities with unprecedented German law with regard to the possibility of regulating the situation in the banking sector, including the possibility of bias management of credit institutions caught in a difficult financial situation.
Maybe in the coming weeks, bear trend quotation of EUR /USD will continue.
Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket on the basis of the Friday session on the MICEX reached 31.60 and 37.63 rubles. against, respectively, 31.21 and 37.48 rubles. at auction on Thursday morning.
In the coming weeks, reducing the relative value of RUB in the world market, may continue even in a further improvement in the financial markets of Russia. Expected in the medium term strengthening of central financial support for domestic consumption and investment in the environment may have a relatively smooth process of improving the performance of external payment Russia will contribute to the development of this trend.
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