Published on Friday macroeconomic data supported the rate of the single European currency.

According to Markit Economics, July indicator of economic situation in the service sector EMC rose to the level of 45.6 pt. at an average prognosis is for him to paragraph 45.2, and 44.7 pt. June TG

rate the business climate in the manufacturing sector in the euro area, the information also for the current month, amounted to 46.0 pt. to 42.6 points for the previous billing period and the expected, on average, professional values, in this case is equal to 43.6 pt.

This statistics is, in general, considerably more favorable than the data in much the same economic climate in the euro zone, ZEW published July 14, TG

However unlikely this may be significant in terms of estimates medium-term prospects for European exchange rate first of all - in relation to the dollar.

First, it is important to note that the collection of information took place 29.06.09 ZEW - 13.07.09. and Markit Economics - in the period from 13.07.09 to 23.07.09. That is the last time of receipt of the data already, seems to take into account reflected in the estimates of the improvement coming in the market, first of all - the American and the Chinese macro-and microeconomic data, as well as a significant factor over the past two weeks, the growth of world stock, commodity markets.

On the other hand, characteristic to the fact that, specialists Markit Economics in its July survey indicated that improvement in the economy of EMC develops more slowly than in the United States and Great Britain. This slowdown in the macroeconomic downturn, in this case is due only to market policies of European companies, which for the growth of sales in the period to apply different price discounts and discounts on their products, in fact, not worrying about the profitability of the business.

The relatively high medium-term risks worsening the situation in the economy of the euro area in recent times is to take into account the quotes in the financial markets, which potentially could have a very negative impact on the euro, including - to the USD, with a view to the next block (Fig. 1 ). In doing so, given the continuing decline in non-financial corporations sector refinancing of the euro zone, the need for medium-term ease monetary policy of the ECB was still valid.

However, in the coming weeks course EUR /USD, may continue to gradually increase.

According to theinformation Friday, Reuters calculated, and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the United States in July, TG amounted to 66.0 pt. against the average forecast is 65.1 point and 70.8 pt. June 2009

indicators of financial statements of U.S. companies, while, in general, have demonstrated once again exceeded the average market expectations, the level of earnings per share.

Against this background, the trend of price increases on high-risk assets in the financial sector remains dominant.

indirectly, to a lesser extent than previously, this situation ultimately contributed to the inflow of investments in European banking, debt sector.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 10:30 Moscow time was 30.82 and 36.63 rubles. against, respectively, 31.11 and 37.07 rubles. Friday morning at the auction.

From the perspective of the short term, against the backdrop of the continuing bull trend in prices of energy and financial assets of Russian companies, the strengthening of RUB rate for international FX may continue.

However, in general, in the long run to the end of TG final opportunity to weakening the positions of the ruble against the bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD exchange rate from the current levels, it seems to remain relevant.

expected in coming quarters strengthening government measures to stimulate production, to support the banking sector of Russia's economy will probably contribute to the development of this trend.

The main support for the Russian market is of growing oil prices, stabilizing the ruble and the rally on the American stock market
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