In the coming days the prospects for the market may be in the range of 950-1000 points of index MICEX
Jun 29th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsThe situation remains extremely tense: the mechanism of competitive bidding would be in the same scenario: a strong start bidding up in the early hours, with fluctuating levels achieved, and the Drawdown in the last hours of trading as fears over an uncertain external background, and various news. With regard to commodity markets, the situation is beginning to cause concern because the oil quotations in Friday dropped sharply, bargaining is a mark of $ 68.60 per barrel. This factor continues to exert pressure on the equities of oil and gas sector and for the whole market.
The financial sector alone can pull the market, and the bank remained the most traded and volatile paper, after the shareholders meeting may be subjected to strong sales. On the U.S. market trading on Friday ended differently. Worse than the market due to lowering the cost of oil futures appeared Paper energy companies. Quotations of the world's largest oil company, ExxonMobil declined by 1.19%, while Chevron and ConocoPhilips of paper lost in the price of 1,38% and 0,34% respectively. Also, feel and fall in the price of metals, which led to a decrease in quotations in the mining sector. The papers of one of the world's largest copper mining company Freeport McMoran Copper Gold proseli at 0.4%, and the largest paper in the United States zolotodobytchika Newmont Mining lost 1.35%. On the other hand, well-traded securities in the United States the largest producer of microchips of computer memory - Micron Technology after the company reported a net loss in the III quarter, despite the fact that the result was worse than expectations. The value of securities companies fell by 3.77%. For similar reasons, 9% proseli paper construction company KB Home. With regard to macroeconomic news, after the report of the U.S. Department of Commerce, under which the amount of consumer income in May compared with the previous month increased by 1.4%, with expectations of growth at 0.4%, investors were somewhat disappointed. Same volume of consumer spending in the United States in May 2009, the year grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. On oil markets, prices fell on Friday the reduction of quotations of shares and the remaining concerns that the economy will remain weak for a longer time than expected, providing additional pressure on oil demand. The oil market did not react to data released on Friday, according to whom the personal cost to the U.S. in May grew by 0.3%, while revenues had grown up to 1.4%, far exceeding projections.
Now impression is that promulgated by the recent macroeconomic indicators suggest that the slowdown in the global economy may have reached bottom, but this fact has been actively considered in the quotations of oil futures on the current levels, so market participants are unlikely to be move the price up even more until not receive a favorable new data that indicate that the economic recovery actually occurs. Note that since February oil prices had already risen, and so twice on expectations that economic recovery will stimulate demand for oil, but the supply of oil is still higher than weak demand, which is why prices remain under pressure. Inventories of gasoline in the United States last week rose more dramatically than expected, with total commercial stocks of oil products in the United States remains above the five-year average ratio of the demand.
Today the Russian market after a positive opening during the day can increase, but closer to the closing quotation will gravitate to the slide in the negative region on the background of the bank commits securities in advance of the meeting of shareholders of Sberbank. In the coming days the prospects for the market may be in the range of 950-1000 points on the MICEX index.
We will see how the market will affect the data on the labor market in the United States and the beginning of the output of corporate reporting ibid.
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