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In the case of Perforation MICEX index level of 1000 points of the reduction may increase

Aug 17th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and Comments

Europe

European markets for the first time in a long time are experiencing a serious decline against the backdrop of falling U.S. futures and a highly negative trends in Asia. European FTSE Eurotop 100 index -2.46%, Britain's FTSE 100 -2.08%, German Xetra Dax -2.1%, French Lyxor Cac 40 -2.56%.

Asian markets disappoint statistics on the GDP of Japan. Despite the growth of 0.9% in the II quarter, GDP was worse than forecasts of 1%. Stock exchanges in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai closed down 3-6% fall. The growth of the dollar and the yen has caused the decline of commodity markets, which affected the shares of commodity companies. Significantly reduced the mining sector. Xstrata -5.9%, Rio Tinto -5.4%, Anglo American -5.3%, Antofagasta -4.9%. Falling capitalization of the largest banks, Barclays -4.2%, Commerzbank -3.4%, Royal Bank of Scotland -2.8%.

Oil

Oil falling on the background of the negative in the world markets and rising dollar. Spot Brent $ 69.11, WTI $ 67.51. Futures are reduced by 2.2%.

Russia

By opening all the factors mentioned in the favor of reduction. In addition to fallen American and Asian markets, the pressure on our market have lost 4% of oil and growing bivalyutnaya basket. To date, the market consolidated in the zone of 3% decline. Futures on the SP 500 index losing 2% already, so further decline is likely.

As leaders decline were shares RusGidro, bidding for which will soon after the opening exchanges were suspended. At this point, shares have already lost 7%. At the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station, which belongs to RusGidro occurred a major accident damage which can make hundreds of millions of rubles. Following a 4% fall in oil about the same losing oil and gas sector. Gazpromneft -4.4% -3.8% Rosneft, Gazprom -3.6% -2.8% Surgutneftegas, Lukoil -2.6%. Additional pressure has reported that the rate of export duty for Russian oil Urals from September 1, again to rise to $ 238.6 per ton to $ 222 in August. Correction in the price of metals has been reflected in the quotations of metallurgical companies. -3.3% NLMK, Severstal -3.2%, MMC Norilsk Nickel -3.1%.

Outlook

In today's macro statistics, I see no data that can greatly change the course of bidding. At 16:30 in the U.S. index of business activity in manufacturing FRB of New York, at 17:00 U.S. Treasury data on international capital flows. After such a rapid growth of markets does not hurt a good correction. I expect a further reduction of 10-15%, the aim of seeing the levels of 880-930 points on the MICEX. After reaching these levels, you can begin to build positions in securities. An important level is 1000 points, followed by reduction of Perforation may worsen. Speculators, I recommend to play at strong Drawdown of purchases, and sell as a profit, medium-term investors at levels below 1000 points to build positions. This week a lot of data from the real estate market, we'll see how quickly the economy recovers, the sector, which started falling global markets.

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Analyst Ratings


For the shares of Gazprom has become urgent as a support point 145-148 rubles
At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trades in the market for government securities MICEX was 28.51 billion rubles
Ministry connect 4.5 GW of additional capacity for the replacement of Sayano-Shushenskaya GES
Euro-dollar gathers feet below the 1.41
NBU ties hryvnia devaluation since the beginning of August, with excess demand for foreign currency on a proposal
Ministry of Economy will initiate the introduction of licensing of exports of gold and silver, in consultation with the Ministry of Finance
Active intervention, the NBU may return rate to the level of hryvnya 7,7-7,8 grn /dollar.
Forex - in the European session
At the end of the trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar at the ETC in the calculations tomorrow was 32.2837 rubles. the dollar

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