After the peak reached in late August - early September, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Ukraine is gradually decreasing. Despite the small rise in early October, the dollar continues to fall in price.

Another 14 October interbank trading U.S. currency was estimated in the range 8,2085-8,2320 hryvnia for one dollar. The next day, October 15, course in the interbank market declined by an average of 9.10 cents - up 8,1170-8,1350 hryvnia for one dollar. Oct. 16 decline continued: Bidding opened in the corridor 8,1025-8,1240 per dollar, and literally a couple of hours prices fell for a few cents - up 8,0870-8,1130 hryvnia for one dollar.

Following the interbank market prices change in the exchange offices. Friday, October 16, rate of purchase of cash dollar fell 4.73 cent and reached 8.0814 hryvnia, selling rate fell to 2.90 kopecks to 8.2215 marks hryvnia. Following the strengthening of the hryvnia interbank trading, the National Bank also increased the rate of national currency by 1,8 penny to 7.98 hryvnia to the dollar.

Compared with the summer buzz, the interest of the population to currency cooled markedly. If in August, the Ukrainians have purchased 2.18 billion U.S. dollars in September - only 1.88 billion. Reducing the demand for currency in September compared to August amounted to 13,8%. Experts believe that in October, people will buy foreign currency even less - about $ 1 billion.

Why down?

Why after several months of falling hryvnia began gradually to recover their losses? Experts cite several reasons.

First, the market has arisen is the lack of national currency, the need for which was greater than the dollar. The fact that the National Bank in late September actively suppressed Ukrainian money from the market by selling its commercial bank certificates of deposit. At the end of September total sales reached 72.5 billion hryvnia. At the same time on the market in the form of refinancing from the regulator has returned only 59.5 billion hryvnia. Thus NBU planted on commercial banks' grivnevyie diet.

Secondly, in early October, weakened the traditional expectations of a monthly payment of Naftogaz of imported gas. For the calculation of the blue fuel NAC requires fairly large amounts of currency, and for this reason the dollar by the end of each month, begins to grow.

However, in early October released information that the problems with payment of about $ 400 million for the September import from Naftogaz will not arise. PromInvestBank plans to sell at the market of 500 million dollars of its additional capital, and NAC expressed a desire to buy the currency. In this case Naftogaz reduces the surplus currency sold Prominvestbank and the application of NAC for the purchase of dollars does not create traditional devaluation expectations in the market.

Third, companies and banks in anticipation of the end of the month and quarter were less ordered. Companies needed a torque, is to pay taxes. Banks with foreign capital were required for the quarterly results to meet the requirements of NBU and transfer credits generated by the reserves from dollars and euros in the hryvnia, as well as to raise capital under the terms of capitalization. Therefore, the daughters of foreign banks sold the currency received from the parent institutions, in the market.

the same time reduces the amount of currency loans: the new are not issued, the old converted to hryvnia. Thus the pressure on the market by borrowers that need the currency to repay loans has fallen - quoted newspaper in Kiev Alexei Kozyrev, director of Treasury Bank Khreshchatyk. In addition, the National Bank does not stop the practice of favorable currency auctions for borrowers physical persons.

Since the growth of the dollar was replaced by the fall, have ceased to hold the currency and exporters - now it was simply unprofitable.

Fourth, the situation in Ukraine reiterates the global trend. On world markets the dollar to the euro sank to its lowest rate for 14 months and continues to move downwards. Time magazine predicts a further decline of the American currency, which has practically turned into a tool for currency speculation. According to reviewers Time, is now more appropriate to leave the dollar and invest in more lucrative currencies.

trend continues for long

the end of the month the dollar's value on the Ukrainian market will continue to decline, but by early November it may happen a new course jump, experts say.

At the end of October - early December will fall large currency payments on foreign loans corporations and banks. Return of foreign loans affects the balance of payments in Ukraine. His deficit in August amounted to 2,618 billion dollars. In other words, the currency of the country takes a lot more than come. In the currency market there is a deficiency, and increased demand can push the dollar up.

However, the NBU has the opportunity to extinguish the excitement through their reserves and the IMF money. Gold reserves of the National Bank at the end of September reached 17.8 billion dollars, and according to the agreement with the IMF, National Bank can throw every month on the market about 970 million dollars.

On the other hand, the slow depreciation of the hryvnia will encourage the Ukrainian exporters and reduce the volume of imports, which will equalize the balance of payments of the country. In this situation, National Bank should gradually devalue the national currency, says the head of group of advisers NBU Valery Litvitsky head.

the end of October the dollar will gradually give up its positions, but by the end of the year may be a slight strengthening of the U.S. currency.

Sergei Pasyuta

Litvitsky: Fall of Ukraine's GDP in the third quarter slowed to about 15%
Preliminary results of the autumn sowing campaign disappointing
Suggestions for an ideal budget

wishes of politicians and experts to the budget-2010 has already exceeded 85 billion, and this is only the beginning ...

Indexes in Europe fell on Friday on weak accountability BofA and General Electric
The Ukrainian stock market on Friday stood in uncertainty on the background of negative dynamics of world sites
The stock market of Russia completed a week on a minor note, due to weak sales report BofA, the leaders rollback banks
Yield Ukrainian Eurobonds this week reduced
Danilishin: Second wave economic crisis in Ukraine will not
Oleg Dubina: In our country, if it is good - it is not interesting if the bad - is yes!

While snowfall repairing damaged power lines, gas economy of the country was preparing to start ...