Agriculture only of the other economic sectors worthy stood first crisis struck. Due to the large grain harvest in 2008, the agricultural sector on the basis of January - June 2009 showed an increase of 2.6%. Grain farmers so inspired by the successes of some local politicians that they are talking about a new export aspirations for Ukraine, which in the long run will be worthy competition for metallurgists and chemists. To and in 2010, proud of the growth of agricultural sector, today should be to understand what price farmers dalsya grain yield-2009. With this well-deserved success or just another tiny part of unrealized potential? And in accordance with the findings to build relationships through the farmers - power. Time for reflection is almost no more: in the country for more than 80% thresh all the grain area and collected 29.5 million tonnes of grain.

hold of the latest strength and do it harm, because I did not prepare the area sown in the autumn, - says the Day about the peculiarities of everyday working director general of the agricultural enterprises Green Valley Roman Mazur. At the same questions, whether the farmers of the state pledged support, Mazur replied: You have that, laughing over the farmers? Saying you can do a lot of image. I do understand that for this they do not. But you ask any farmers, is Are donations? Is there compensation? Does the grant, the so-called Orange, Diesel? I think that every farmer who has a conscience, say that there is nothing. And therefore have to rely mainly on their strength and ability to negotiate with major financial partners - the banks. According to Mazur, the company returned 20% of bank credit, and he went on a client assignment.

Find a common language to manage the crisis, not all farmers, the respondents say Happy experts. According to their estimates, only 30 - 50% agrokreditov banks extended. Most farmers have to twist at the expense of internal reserves. Our producers make their case in good faith, in spite of all the unfulfilled promises of government, at all the crises and the shameful treatment of the banks, - says the Day Association Ukrainian club of agrarian business Alex Lissitsa. - Today, farmers have demonstrated the growth of the latter forces . And what will happen to the crops in 2010? This is really a question. We need to talk honestly, that happens a decrease of sown area under cereals. Because now, many farmers simply do not have the resources to spend on the desired level fall and field work. And many small farm crisis did not survive. But I hope that Ukrainian farmers zasuchat arm again and stretched the country out of crisis.

How, where and what is not doseyut, it is difficult to definitively say, summarizes Lissitsa. But according to preliminary projections, instead of wheat is likely to sow soybean or canola. So in 2010, it is possible to rapeseed renaissance. Emerging trends that grain nedosev will have a clear regional dimension. Thus, according to the experts, is a very difficult situation may arise in the Crimea. Indeed, after the introduction of new grain standard is a significant part of the Crimean grain into the class of coarse. A total reduction of acreage in the country ranges from 10% to 20%, - predicts Lissitsa.

In the opinion of an expert UkrAgroKonsaltinga Elizabeth Malyshko, 2.6% growth in the transitional balances have a record grain harvest in 2008. They now export to world markets for Ukrainian grain trader. In 2009, the prospects for grain farmers positive, but not so profitable, says an expert. Since the internal price of grain is low, domestic demand does not grow and harvest volumes lower. Will investment - will increase, - refers to the main condition of motion agarnogo sector up baby. For example, she says, if farmers provide sufficient Minudobreniya and plant protection products, low-cost fuel and forced to carry out the correct crop rotation, the perspective of Ukraine can count on grain yield in one and a half to two times more current. At the same time, she did not agree with Lissitsoy, which predicts changes in planting landmarks. According to Malyshko, jump on the growing of oilseed plants is not possible due to technological aspects: the good harvests of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower are only in the production of these crops in one field is not more frequently than once every 4-5 years. Therefore, the ratio of 30% of sown areas under the oil and 70% - for cereals, will continue.

Unlike the experts, choosing tactics for the next crop year, farmers are increasingly listening to the voice of economic reason. If the harvest has not yielded the desired profit, you have to sow something valuable. And although, according to the company ProAgro at the end of July wheat rose slightly in price (food and fodder wheat went up by 30 UAH. /T and barley - 50 UAH. /T), but in the long-term trend was not transformed. Since the growth led to a grain trader, who is now burning international contracts and they urgently needed grain. Now they slightly increase the profitable domestic price, than to receive claims for payment of fines and penalties for failure to comply with contracts from customers. Once the contracts are fulfilled, enter the new one will not be at such prices. Preconditions for increasing prices is not as the grain market of Ukraine and the world, - said Lissitsa. - The situation has not changed yet, at least until the end of 2009. At best, the price could go up to 7-10%.

But by the end of 2009 is still far. Farmers also need money. Search for their farmers, are likely to be in the agricultural fund. Recall that it holds the purchase of grain under the mortgage, at a price higher than the market. Stand whether the influx of Agrarian Grain Fund, as many farmers do not have the capacity to store grain in elevators?

According Lissitsy in a fund of not more than 700 - 800 million hryvnia. This is not the amount of funds that can stabilize the situation on the market. To do this, at least 5-6 billion hryvnia, - said he was the Day. Therefore, if funds are not added, the grain will continue to buy speculators.

Sergey Stoyanov, Director General of Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation

- The potential of the agricultural sector significantly, and it is not fully developed. The agricultural sector has significant opportunities for growth. Thus, Ukraine from the black would not collect the 35 quintals of maize per hectare, and 80, not 28 quintals of wheat, and 60. As the most complete form of this potential? Manufacturers to do so should have enough finances to follow the technology. Now, with regard to talk about that all sectors of the economy declined, and only the agricultural sector has shown growth. It shows an increase of inertia, which began in 2008. Let us live another year in the context of the present crisis, and then in July-August 2010 will see the real picture.

Regarding the grain harvest this year, I want to say: in July, only began undermining the export (to foreign markets sold 1.7 million tons). I believe that in August, will be exported at least two million tons. In the context of talking about the same low procurement prices for grain to say this: on the world markets for sale of grain 5-7%. But the cost of grain on the stock market serves a guide price for all buyers and sellers. Ukrainian same prices are influenced by stock market indicators and tenders that are major importers of grain from North Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Korea and Japan. By participating in these tenders, the Ukrainian grain trader sell grain in advance, competing with each other and with other market participants. In fact, these tenders - the game of roulette. After all, having obtained the contract, they enter the domestic market and it is beginning to compete for grain resource, heating prices in the domestic market. Consequently, the real value of grains born in the struggle between a grain trader for execution of contracts. Therefore, it seems to me strange, when traders are accused of conspiracy. Ukrainian grain traders to the market that severely compete with each other on the issue price.

Yuri Karasik, head of the Ukrainian Union of Agricultural Enterprises

- The growth of agricultural sector is made possible through significant transitional cereal stocks in 2008. Today they continue to export overseas. On the performance of agricultural sector in 2009 will be judged only on the basis of the second half of 2009 and the first of 2010. But now I do not see a positive prognosis. It can occur if the normal work of organizing the market of grain, sunflower, sugar, corn and livestock products.

Continuing the theme of the grain would like to ask why the Ukrainian grain is not used for the development of the domestic market? Because the domestic market - most profitable in terms of profits. If grain is sold on it, the little money spent on all sorts of logistics. Gathered in a certain region of the grain may consume tamoshnie bakeries, it can be used for the production of fodder for livestock development, to work alcoholic industry. Let us finally to work in the domestic market, in particular, to develop pig production and cattle breeding. Today should make every effort to Ukraine exported no coarse grains, and meat and dairy products. Believe me, from an economic point of view it is advantageous for several times.

Today, there is also a discrepancy between the real need of farmers to finance and the availability of opportunities for their involvement. Taken in 2008, credits almost used, but the impact they have not yet. New loans can not take the farmers to purchase fuel or pesticides. Therefore, the maximum pumped current assets holdings. And this is very bad in the middle of the harvest and before the new planting season. What can cause a financial imbalance of the producers? First of all, can not fully pay the rent to owners of land. Secondly, the time could not pay salaries to employees. The third will be fewer crops under the crop of 2010. And finally - will begin to shrink herds. Therefore it is very important to release the job the banking system. According to my calculations, for a successful planting season-2010 the village require 10-15 billion hryvnia.

Natalia Bilousova

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Forex - Asia
Today, industrial metals on the LME price is adjusted, the exception is nickel, showing upward momentum
Commodity markets continue their upward trend on reports that demand from China will remain in the II half of 2009
Domestic market is supported by macro-economic statistics for the United States, but current levels of consolidation are unstable
At the beginning of today's session on the RTS index futures fell, the goal is located at the nearest minimum
Today, trading in the primary pair forex market will be in the range 1,4140-1,4325 dollars per euro
On the commodity markets: prices for industrial metals remained at the previous values
Goskomstat: Base Inflation in Ukraine in July slowed to 0.5%