Ukraine once again began to actively build up debts: only for the first six months of their amount increased almost 1,7 times. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance expects in the near future again to reduce the debt burden on the state budget by revising schemes of borrowing.

According to the Ministry of Finance on July 1, 2009 public and publicly guaranteed debt totaled 218.9 billion UAH. (including external - 156 billion UAH., internal - 62,6 billion UAH.), or 18,9% of GDP. However, until the situation is far from critical. Today, for every Ukrainian citizen (including a newborn) have $ 2,2 thousand debt. In this same period at the end of 2008 in Russia amounted to $ 3,4 thousand, in Kazakhstan - $ 6,9 thousand, in Poland - $ 6.4 thousand, in the U.S. and the Czech Republic - to $ 7,8 thousand

Late last year an agreement was reached with the IMF on the allocation of Ukraine $ 16.4 billion, another $ 0.8 billion to cover cash gaps of the budget in 2008 was drawn from the WB, but this year he plans to take another $ 1 25 billion in the Ministry of Finance explained that this is the best solution the problem, because to borrow on foreign markets is too expensive. In addition, the Government is actively engaged in the domestic market: only the Government Bonds from the beginning of the year released by 20,6 billion UAH. This budget law authorizes the Cabinet to add these CBR another 49,5 billion UAH.

Nevertheless, the Finance Ministry intends to have by 2020, fully pay for current obligations. Repayment schedule is as follows: in 2010 for this purpose is planned to send 15,2 billion UAH., In 2011 - 17,4 billion UAH., In 2012-m - 17,9, in 2013 - 15,9 billion UAH. In 2014, expected some settling the debt load - will have to pay 2,9 billion UAH. Next repayment is downward - from 15,4 billion UAH. in 2015-m to 1,2 billion UAH. 2020.

These amounts are not critical, but the fact that they do not include the cost of servicing the debt. And the cost of debt resources in the domestic market has grown significantly. Recently, the Ministry of Finance publishes the paper with a yield of more than 20%, and the longer the such borrowing, the greater the cost of their care. Since the external market is unlikely to be available for goszaymov in the near future, the value of the resource may be significantly higher than all previous loans, - explained an economist from Troika Dialog Ukraine Irina Piontkovskaya.

In addition, experts do not exclude that the debt burden on the budget may be even higher. Government finance decided to count only the national debt and does not take into account the state guarantees, as well as the duty of the NBU to the International Monetary Fund. On the one hand, it is quite logical - until these debts are not hanging on a budget. But if the threat of bankruptcy of Naftogaz of or inability to Ukravtodor pay to the credits all the expenses will still lie on the state treasury, - says Director General of the analytical center BEST Valery smooth.

Experts believe that the Treasury's own resources to service current debt is clearly not enough: to IMF forecasts, this year the Ukrainian GDP blown away by 8%, and next to increase by 1%. Therefore the only way to comply with promulgated by the state debt service schedule - pereodalzhivat. The Finance Ministry believes that new loans to service existing can be involved with maturities in 2014 and from 2016 the first year, when the debt burden of existing loans on the budget will decrease. The question is where to find lenders. Financial analysts say that next year the external debt markets will still be unattractive to Ukraine. They are very skeptical and the possibility of further fruitful cooperation with foreign financial institutions.

The international financial institutions are well aware that we are now experiencing the peak of political activism. And what is the current and next years without any borrowing can not proceed. But the constant disregard for creditors' claims can be fraught with the suspension of cooperation. Ukraine risks to remain without their help if you do not begin to actively implement the budget and tax reform to show tangible results in combating corruption , - considers the executive director of Sigma Blazer Foundation Oleg Ustenko.

According to Irina Piontkovsky, in the current situation optimally develop the domestic market borrowing and borrowing in its currency. First, it will eliminate the risks associated with exchange rate movements, secondly, reduce the burden on the foreign exchange market in periods of payment, risking subsidence rate hryvnia.

It is said that the Government has already taken several steps to switch to the domestic market borrowings. This year, the Cabinet intends обкатать scheme to attract funds from the public by issuing treasury bills. The fact that it is still only a trial balloon, they say the volume of borrowings. Originally scheduled to emit such securities in the amount of UAH 500 million., Later reduced the amount to 200 million UAH. The government expects that the decline in confidence in the banking system, government securities, even with low profitability (its supposed to be set at 16% per annum) will attract the attention of the population. The main reason for which the wealthy Ukrainians want to buy treasury bonds, should be an opportunity not to provide documents about the origin of funds invested in this tool. Recall that Viktor Yushchenko on June 13 overturned a decree suspending the relevant item of Government Regulation on the conditions of placement of government treasury bills.

However, the main hope in the part of borrowing Cabinet holds the financiers. This year, after ten years of unsuccessful attempts in Ukraine had been introduced demonstrated in many European countries to institute primary dealers in government securities market. They are required to participate in the distribution of Government Bonds and redeem for their own means of at least 3% of the volume of placed securities (up to six months). In addition, primary dealers should daily to maintain constant bilateral quotes (display the purchase price and sales) on Government Bonds. In other words, if someone wants to quickly sell the bonds until their maturity, primary dealers will have to buy them.

As explained in National Bank, the main objective of innovation - improving market liquidity and capacity of the state Central Bank, as well as reducing the cost of servicing domestic public debt. August 19 The Ministry of Finance has already picked out the top five banks' market maker.

These were ING Bank Ukraine, Oschadbank, UkrSibbank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval and UkrGasBank. The next contest will be held September 10 (all planned to select 16 financial establishments). Experts believe that the primary dealers can actually be all the banks in the first twenty. But most likely this role the Government has preparedprimarily state and nationalized banks, which could provide the Ministry of Finance hosted no less than a third of all editions of Government Bonds.

But perhaps the most interesting to know how the government in terms of better management of state debt was another: in the beginning of August, the Government has simplified the procedure involving small loans to local budgets. According to the decree of the Cabinet (№ 865), they are now able, without coordination with the Ministry of Finance to borrow a sum not exceeding 25% of average annual income in the appropriate budget for the last three years. It is clear that these funds will be spent on paying salaries to state employees and payments to suppliers of energy. And this, moreover, that the costs entirely lie on the state treasury. Thus the team of Yulia Tymoshenko actually shifted to the local authorities of the responsibility to fulfill social obligations, thereby reducing planned expenditures.

main problem lies in the fact that the Cabinet in the near future will not only lend money to pay for the old debt. Even the current protracted crisis has taught the power to live within our means. Recurrent elections make it in the current situation, placate the electorate social handouts. Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn has already promised that one of the first questions that the Verkhovna Rada will consider, after returning from vacation, will increase the minimum wage and living wage. Although the state treasury obviously did not have to such generosity. This means that the government will have to increase the size of borrowings, which may one day treasury and can not cope.

Yuri Konstantinov

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