elephant in a china shop?

Today's decline in quotations on the Russian stock market except for known causes should be serious, not obvious at first glance cause. And here comes the idea of selling VEBa. Normal people are sold on a growing market, however, VEBa apparently has its own logic. One of the colleagues of the distinguished brokerage house suggested the original idea. Create a portfolio VEBa PIF and hold regular folk IPO. The Russians did not receive a single chip with subjective risk, a first-class assets in general. However, the elephant may go the other way, and so woe to him who gets under your feet. Just remember, as Gazprom is buying up Mosenergo in 2004, and the fate of shortistov in this paper. However, sales VEBa increases the free float of companies that will no doubt positive for the market in the long term. Plus, EBV can not change the movement of the market as we are seen in autumn.

I think, is to assess the market situation soberly. And it is talk that the Russian stock market was overvalued, because macroeconomics are not happy, the decline in GDP, industrial. production and. etc., are senseless. First, the direct relationship between macroeconomic indicators and market capitalization in the short to medium term does not exist. In doing so, the current values of macroeconomic indicators that say so yesterday. Expensive oil will affect the real sector through the 3-6 months, and vysokoveroyatno that we get the economic downturn on the basis of years of only 3-5%.

Second, and most importantly, you are buying is not the economy, and the specific action of a specific company. And to say Buy, Sell or Hold need to evaluate companies based on discounted cash flows and /or multipliers. The ideal score for each of the methods should coincide. In January, when the relationship between cash flow and capitalization of the companies was still broken, I recommend focus on the corridor Urals 41-45 U.S. $ /bbl and RTS index 900-1200 points. Tax innovation and devaluation of the ruble is seriously improved the results of oil exporters. This demonstrated the consolidated financial results, Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft in the first quarter, the last reported today. The results of all three chips gladdened the market. However, the rally in commodity markets has allowed to be more optimistic estimates. And current levels of oil prices make it possible to count on much higher levels - 1300-1500 on the RTS index. And if oil keeps, we will certainly see them this summer.

Of course, if no new major negative. And it could be anything. Yesterday I asked what was the RTS index in autumn /winter of last year, if it was not an American crisis. And I say, 500-700 points. Ie level to large-scale entry of funds to non-receipt of the investment rating of Russia and the liberalization of Gazprom shares. In summer 2008, every other piece belonged to non-residents. And the Caucasian War in August, Russia has a very bad PR in the West and the massive sale of shares. Although then complete the sale by non-residents was seen as a very negative scenario.

With the high probability of this summer an expensive oil will provide liquidity of our financial market and make it more attractive to non-residents. In conclusion, it is necessary to remind that export revenues appear on MICEX bid with a lag of 2-2.5 months. In oil I trust forever!

Important prerequisites for the purchases are not available, Bear was an opportunity to move the market in the direction they need
The closest resistance for the shares of Gazprom is the level of 165 rubles
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Neither the fall of the dollar, nor the rise in oil prices have prevented the Russian market to show an adequate correction
Domestic market after a substantial reduction of the previous day had little chance of short-term recovery
This afternoon, the MICEX and RTS indexes stayed in the half-point above 1000 points
Strong resistance to stamp Brent is the level of near $ 78 a barrel
Shares of Russian banks promise of being subjected to massive sell-and complete the day in negative
Gazprom will strengthen its position in the gas and electricity markets in North America