deteriorating financial and economic activities of companies, tightening of credit policies of banking institutions, increasing the level of mistrust among the participants of the stock market have led to more frequent cases of default by bond issuers.
 

Methodological approaches Rating Agency

The review analyzes the non-compliance of the issuers, which at the time of default are the customers of the rating agencies and maintain credit ratings on the National rating scale. Rating agency in most cases do not enter an event of default on bonded debt with credit ratings that have on the date of default status of "suspended" or "withdrawn". This is because often the suspension or revocation of credit rating due to not getting the rating agency by the issuer with sufficient information necessary for making decisions about the performance or non-compliance on the debt instrument. However, in some cases, when the rating agency have the necessary information obtained from reliable sources, the fact that the onset of default was recorded by the agency. These cases were included in this review.

The term "default" on the bond issue rating agency implies the inability of the issuer to fulfill the commitments on the issue. Under the obligations of the owner of the means paying bond interest income and /or body of the loan in accordance with the volume and deadlines set by the terms of the prospectus (including the obligation to offer). When issuing bonds of the target issuer is obliged to pay to the owners of bonds of goods or services on the terms reflected in the prospectus. In most cases it is the transfer of investor square meters (apartment, parking, etc.).

rating agency shares the concept of "default" and "technical default". Under the technical defaults meant the temporary breach of the settlement of debt in the presence of preparedness on the part of the issuer to make the necessary calculations on the dates and amounts to be agreed with creditors. Technical default can be transformed into a default in case of failure to reach agreement with creditors to restructure the obligations, or if the borrower subsequently violated the agreed terms of restructuring, as well as upon the occurrence of other events that demonstrate the frustration of this debt.

Statistics presented without a separate analysis of default and a technical default, hereinafter referred to as the review used the generic term "default".

spree is fixed in the case of the following events:

failure or delay in implementation of commitments on debt instruments;

restructuring obligations of the issuer in the event that such a restructuring, according to Rating Agency, adversely affect the interests of investors and was carried out by the receipt of forced consent;

start bankruptcy proceedings, liquidation of the issuer, if the date of commencement of the borrower"s existing debt owed to creditors on a debt instrument.

can also fix default upon the occurrence of any other events that lead to the inability of the issuer1000to fulfill obligations under the bond issue.

When counting the number of defaults on the bond issue defaulted counted once on the first date of default, even if the issuer on several occasions failed to comply with obligations under a bond issue. For example, there was a failure to comply with obligations under several series of the same issue, either for the first time a coupon is not paid in the second - not bought bonds in accordance with stipulated in the prospectus offer. If one contractor had been issued several bond issues for which there was non-compliance, default is fixed for each release.

above features into account due to the fact that the ratings of bond issue examines the solvency of the issuer (ie, the ability to pay on time and in full) for each issue as a whole, rather than on individual series. With the formation of defaults on credit rating agency statistics take into account the rating on the bond issue in effect on the date of default.

distribution of defaults on credit rating categories

Among the participants of the stock market is there is a misconception that the appropriation or the maintenance of the rating agency investment grade credit rating means a "guarantee" the obligations by the issuer. In fact, failure to comply may by issue with any level of credit rating - from the lowest - uaC to the highest - uaAAA. Supporting one or another level of credit rating, the rating agency reflecting their views on the level of reliability of the securities of an issuer. We are talking about the sufficiency or adequacy of the solvency of the issuer on certain bond issue. The lower the level of credit rating, the lower the possibility of calculating the issuer of bonds. In this securities with an investment level rating is also a probability of default by the issuer obligations, although it is considerably lower compared with the releases that have a speculative rating categories. Of the total number of issues on which there was a default, 15% of issues were on the date of default investment-grade credit rating, 85% - the speculative level. In some cases, issuers with credit ratings of investment grade, having sufficient capacity to pay for the settlement of obligations, and delayed payments or restructured existing debt.

Such actions are explained by the fact that for these issuers during the crisis the task of maintaining working capital has a higher priority than the implementation of public commitments.

During the analyzed period there was an increase of defaults on releases with credit ratings of both investment and speculative levels, but significant increase in the number of defaults occurred in 2009, in the speculative category. For most issuers with credit ratings of the speculative level, was characterized by a set of risks, implementation of which in times of crisis led to the avoidance or delay implementation of the commitments that led to increased defaults in 2009. Based on the statistics of the assignments, the implementation of a risk of non-implementation of commitments in 2009 came to 19% of all issues with credit ratings assigned to the speculative level.

According to the expectations of the agency in 2010, this figure should increase substantially as a number of issues had maturity of up to five years and in 2010 will advance the date of maturity of debt instruments. And because the creditworthiness of a large number of issuers is at a level lower than enough (about 300 releases have a speculative rating categories), this year we can expect a further increase in the number of defaults.

I would like to draw attention to a sufficiently high accuracy ratings of the agency. As mentioned earlier, the total number of issues on which1000the default was recorded, 85% of issues were on the date of default level of speculative credit rating. The number of changes in the levels of credit ratings for five years is insignificant.

Certainly, the financial crisis has affected the level of liquidity of a number of clients, and this was caused by lower credit ratings in 2008 and 2009. However, the decrease were not widespread. Even a smaller percentage of movement of investment-grade rating in the speculative characterized the action of Credit-Rating "for 2006-2008. For comparison: in 2008 the international rating agency Fitch Rating downgraded the credit ratings of 20%.

In most cases the rating agency assigns a long-term credit ratings, thereby assessing not only the current level of creditworthiness of the issuer, but also predicting the level of creditworthiness of the issuer for the long term. This explains the small number of changes in credit ratings during the analyzed period of five years.

Distribution by type of default

Issuers of securities are sufficiently similar to the original set of events, upon the occurrence of which there is a recognition of the defaults.

most common type of default is the failure of the borrower to fulfill the obligations on the bonds upon the occurrence of the last repayment date of issue. A significant proportion of defaults (66,3% of the total) due to the large number of defaults recorded against the target bonds.

The reason is fairly low credit quality bond issues designed to attract money to finance the construction. "Credit Rating" has repeatedly drawn the attention of investors to the low pay of most developers and companies to attract resources for the construction of real estate. Because of the more than 380 trust issues bonds totaling about 30 billion UAH. To be located among the investors, 85% were rated as agency securities speculative level. Companies that leverage resources in the stock market, including funds from individuals, often do not have the necessary experience in the construction field and made mistakes in financial planning, had little of their own financial resources.

These factors led to a situation that often occurs when the last date of maturity bond issue the company did not have time to build and deliver homes in operation. Among the issuers, who allowed defaulted on repayment of bonds of trust companies such as: "Ukrainian Investment Engineering Company, Gradstroy", "Regional construction investment", Chernigov fabricated construction materials "," power system "and other issuers were forced to violate the terms of execution obligations or negotiate with investors to replace the bonds placed on securities with a later maturity, or contract property rights for construction in progress. It should be noted that quite a number of companies are continuing to build housing facilities, which were released under bonds. Some companies (among them such as TMO Liko Holding, "" Budkompleks "," Misto "," Ukrsotsbad ") has entered the house in operation and was paid off with investors.

other most common type of default is the presentation of bonds to the offer under the terms of prospectuses (19,8% of the total number of defaults). Virtually all issues of interest-bearing bonds, proreytingovannye Agency, contained the right to claim redemption. This was due to several reasons.

Issue majority of bonds comes amid a growing economy, and quarterly or semi-annual offers issuers were not perceived as a potential risk, because there was a possibility of refinancing. In addition, the underwriters1000have been easier to place the issue with the required offers, than without them. Thus issuers mistakes in financial planning, and forecasting cash flow does not take into account the need for settlement of the offer or planned to pay for the expense of additional resources. In a financial crisis, many issuers are not able to gain access to credit resources and, accordingly, were unable to refinance, leading to avoidance or delay in implementation of obligations under the offer. Among the issuers defaulted have allowed this type of companies such as "SP Niva", "CITIC" Iboya "," Cherkasy Poultry Farm "," Rush "(series A volume of 20.0 mln.)," Agro ", etc.

next most frequently type of default are missing payments on the payment coupon. This type of default is relatively small proportion-9.5% of the total. This statistic is due to the fact that most issuers, bond issues, more or less adequately assessed their current receipts and payments, and in forecasting cash flows take into account the upcoming interest payment. The incentive for timely payment and the right to serve as issuers of bonds to produce early redemption in case of breach of payment discipline. According to Credit Rating ", the non-payment of interest occurred more often in cases where the company against the backdrop of the deteriorating financial condition, triggered by the crisis, evaluate its debt load (including arrears as of bonded debt, and loans) as exorbitant, and took the decision to suspend payments on obligations. However, some companies have negotiated with investors on debt restructuring. Among the enterprises for which the agency has registered a default of this type - "Insaharprom-K", "Progress", "Nidan", "Poltavamotorservis", etc.

Remediation

followed by a moratorium on interest payment or liquidation of the company are the least common type of default (3.5% of the total number of defaults). Credit Rating "recorded this type of default on such companies as" Omega "," Rush "(series level of 50,0 mln.) Bank" European ".

enough interesting is the fact that the statistics of defaults from international rating agencies according to the types of defaults is quite different. For example, according to the international rating agency Moodys Investor Service after the period from 1970 to 2008, bankruptcy is the cause of default in 46% of cases. This can be attributed to several causes.

Bonds issued in the domestic stock market in most cases, are unsecured. In addition, the legislation does not prescribe the legal consequences of default, and in the prospectuses of the creditors in the event of default, as a rule, formally registered and most are in reference to the Law of Ukraine "About the rehabilitation of the debtor"s solvency and its recognition by the bankrupt

Therefore, when the bankruptcy, investors are in the queue of creditors for the obligations of non-collateralized. This type of requirement is met in the fourth place - after the creditors" claims of the secured obligations, the company"s employees, as well as the payment obligations for Taxes and Duties. Roughly speaking, the probability of obtaining money is reduced to zero. Therefore, investors are quite loyal to negotiate a postponement of commitments in an attempt to reach an understanding with the borrowers, and try not to bring the situation before the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings. The low percentage of procedures for reorganization and liquidation of enterprises among the types of default due to the fact that these procedures are often preceded by the failure of other commitments - to offer or coupon payment, and1000these events are recorded by the rating agency "Credit-rating" as a type of default.

distribution issuers have committed a default, by economic activity

greatest number of defaults occurred in the construction area - 56% of the total number of defaults. The first defaults in this area occurred in 2006, but a significant increase in the number of defaults occurred in 2008 and 2009. Causes defaults were related to the fact that often issuers expected to carry out major construction work at the expense of borrowed funds, including credit. Since 2009, arose as a result of shortage of funds, began slowing down construction work and the freezing of a large number of construction projects. Accordingly, upon the occurrence of the last date of maturity, many companies failed to fulfill their obligations under the prospectus, namely: to transfer the ownership of investors put in service the property.

to prevent investors about the possibility of default "Credit Rating" introduced in 2006 further specification of speculative credit rating of the scale, which not only assess the ability of timely and full implementation of the issuer of its debt obligations, but also characterizes the probability of a maximum period of delay liabilities in the event of default. So credit rating level uaBB take into account the possibility of delay by the Issuer in the calculations for them to trust bonds issued for up to 6 months, uaB - 12 months uaSSS, uaSS, uaS - more than 12 months.

In second place are defaults in the trade. Not the commitments by enterprises of the activity occurred in 2009, ie в то время, когда предприятия ощутили на себе давление, связанное с кризисными явлениями в экономике. Динамическое развитие розничного рынка, происходившее до начала 2009 года, диктовало сетевому ритейлу необходимость открытия магазинов в различных регионах с целью увеличения доли рынка. Осуществление погашения заемных ресурсов, привлекавшихся для развития сетей, планировалось в основном за счет рефинансирования, поскольку и инвесторы, и операторы оценивали розницу как одно из наиболее привлекательных инвестиционных направлений. Не имея валютной выручки предприятия достаточно часто привлекали ресурсы в инвалюте, поскольку их стоимость была ниже. Во время кризиса девальвация гривны привела к росту долговой нагрузки предприятий, кроме того произошло снижение потребительского спроса на товары, банки сократили кредитные программы во всех сферах и активизировали работы по погашению задолженности клиентов. В такой ситуации многие компании оказались не в состоянии рассчитаться по привлеченным ресурсам.

Кроме того, есть ряд причин невыполнения обязательств, характерных непосредственно для предприятий, допустивших дефолты. Среди таких причин можно назвать: недостаточно хорошо организованное управление предприятиям и, соответственно, технические задержки по выплатам, перераспределение денег в группе компаний на нужды, не связанные с деятельностью компании-эмитента и т.д.
В химической промышленности стоит разграничить причины допущения дефолтов предприятиями, занимающимися производством, продажей удобрений и медпрепаратами. До сентября 2008 года конъюнктура рынка минеральных удобрений была достаточно благоприятной, что стимулировало предприятия наращивать объемы деятельности за счет заемных средств. С конца 2008 года происходило уменьшение объема производства минеральных удобрений вследствие уменьшения спроса со стороны агропромышленных предприятий, проблем связанных с поставками газа и ростом конкуренции со стороны российских производителей. Это привело к формированию убытков и снижению ликвидности до уровня, недостаточного для расчетов по существующим обязательствам. В фармацевтической промышленности среди причин дефолтов можно назвать высокий уровень долговой нагрузки и недостаточное качес1000тво управления денежными потоками

Основными причинами невыполнения (несвоевременного выполнения) обязательств отдельными банками было снижение их платежеспособности ввиду ухудшения ситуации в экономике, оттока ресурсной базы, а также слабая регуляторная и операционная среда. Это позволило некоторым банкам уйти от выполнения обязательств, опираясь на нормативные акты (требование КМУ к банкам - претендентам на государственную капитализацию реструктуризировать облигационные займы; постановление НБУ №421 от 22.07.09 г., ограничивающие возможности досрочного погашения собственных облигаций убыточными банками). Несмотря на принятие указанных нормативных документов, рейтинговое агентство расценивало такие нарушения условий проспектов эмиссий как дефолт.

Последующее выполнение обязательств по облигациям после нарушения условий, указанных в проспекте эмиссии

После нарушения эмитентами условий эмиссии агентство продолжает поддерживать кредитные рейтинги долговых обязательств в тех случаях, когда существует возможность выполнения обязательств в более поздние сроки. Однако стоит отметить, что после невыполнения обязательств эмитенты в 42% случаев предпочитали не раскрывать информацию о своих дальнейших действиях. В 26% случаев от общего количества зафиксированных дефолтов, эмитенты уже выполнили обязательства перед инвесторами, а оставшиеся 32% согласовали реструктуризацию обязательств или находятся в процессе ее согласования.

Как показывает практика, возврат долга является для инвестора достаточно сложной процедурой. Существует целый ряд факторов, препятствующих эффективному взысканию задолженности либо затягивающих этот процесс.

Как уже отмечалось ранее, облигации в большинстве случаев являются необеспеченным обязательствами и, соответственно, инвесторы не имеют существенных рычагов влияния на заемщиков для возврата долга. Это позволяет заемщику откладывать выполнение обязательств на более поздние сроки, даже если у него есть возможность их выполнить.

Кроме того, инвесторы зачастую не могут выработать единую позицию работы с кредитором. Если эмиссия была выкуплена андеррайтером или размещена среди небольшого количества инвесторов, вести переговорный процесс с заемщиком о достижении договоренностей относительно условий реструктуризации значительно проще, чем в случае публичного размещения выпуска, когда большое количество инвесторов не может прийти к единому мнению.

Соответственно, затяжной переговорный процесс позволяет заемщику тщательнее подготовиться к встречам с кредиторами, принять меры для защиты своих активов. Как пример, заемщики выводят активы на другие предприятия группы или инициируют процедуру санации предприятия, во время которой действует мораторий на выполнение обязательств. Как правило, инвесторы ограничены в доступе к информации о финансово-хозяйственной деятельности эмитентов, отсутствует и возможность осуществления контроля за его денежными потоками. Это позволяет недобросовестным заемщикам дезинформировать кредиторов, в том числе и путем манипуляций с финансовой отчетностью.

Стоит отметить недостаточную активность регулирующих органов относительно санкций, применяемых к проблемным должникам. Государственная комиссия по ценным бумагам и фондовому рынку имеет право в случае нарушения законодательства о ценных бумагах выносить предупреждения, останавливать оборот ценных бумаг эмитентов, проводить проверки деятельности эмитентов и состояния его корпоративного управления, направлять эмитентам распоряжения об устранении нарушений законодательства, налагать административные взыскания, применять штрафные санкции и т.д. При этом комиссия не уделяет должного внимания использованию существующих полномочий для оказания влияния на недобросовестных заемщиков.
Прогноз на 2010 год

По мнению "Кредит-Рейтинг" для достаточно большого количества эмитентов выпускавших облигации был характерен определенный набор рисков, реализация которых в условиях кризиса привела к невыполнению или задержкам выполнения обязательств. Среди таких рисков стоит отметить высокую долговую нагрузку, недостаточно высокое качество управления и планирования финансово-хозяйственной деятельности, возможность перераспределения денежных средств в группе компаний без учета интересов эмитента и т.д.

В период сохранения низкой кредитной активности, затрудняющей возможность рефинансирования, на фоне слабой законодательной среды, не позволяющей оперативно применить санкции к неплательщикам, эти риски остаются характерными для большого количества эмитентов. Поскольку кредитоспособность значительного числа эмитентов находится на уровне ниже, чем достаточная (около 300 выпусков имеют рейтинги спекулятивной категории), в 2010 году рейтинговое агентство ожидает дальнейшего увеличения количества дефолтов.

Ольга Шубина

European indexes fell on Wednesday for the first time in 3 days
Forex - results of the day
Analysts" forecasts: domestic exchanges will occur near yesterday"s levels or slightly lower
In the first half of the day in anticipation of the publication of key rates of the Bank of England and the ECB"s strong movement in Russia market unlikely
Strong movement in Russia"s stock market today is not worth waiting
Russia"s stock market after a neutral-negative opening can keep downward momentum
Influence the course of trading today, the U.S. will have statistics on the labor market, as well as data on industrial orders
Domestic indices today will be under pressure from speculative sales, which could cost them about 1% of the capitalization
In the short term "bulls" will be important to defend the support at 1,430 points on the MICEX