Published on Friday, macroeconomic data are mixed. Nevertheless, given the not very favorable to the bulls technical factors, the operators of segment investment in risk found the information compelling enough reason to strengthen sales in this segment of the investment.

U.S. index of industrial production in July, TG increased by 0,5% (m /m) to reduce this figure in the previous month at 0.4% and expected average market growth of the index at 0.2%.

At the same time, the August index of consumer confidence in America, Reuters calculated, and the University of Michigan, was only 63.2 pt. against the average forecast in July and values equal to 68.6 and 66.0 points. In other circumstances, the dynamics of this indicator is unlikely to be able to meaningfully influence the mood of investors, it reflects the already known players, such as increases in energy prices and weak U.S. labor market.

However, in view of having prior information about the reduction in July, TG benchmark of retail sales in the United States and against the background of published data on the previous week marked the restoration of American employment, statistics indicated an overall picture rather uncertain situation in the consumer sector of America. This factor has traditionally had a negative otygryvaetsya investment and financial sector.

Against this background, evidence that the U.S. CPI index last month fell to -2.1% (g /g) against the average forecast, and its previous value, equal to -1.9% and -1.4 %, contributed to further increase investments in the financial market players' trezheriz. It should be noted that this safe investment segment last week, enough to heat the major operators of the impact of its regular large-sized placements UST.

In such circumstances, in the short term quotes EUR /USD may continue to decline, including - in the decline of activity in the segment of carry trade.

However, the sustainability of the processes associated with the recession level of investment in risk from the perspective of the coming weeks is substantial doubt.

The current rateof growth of monetary aggregates a number of leading economies of the world indicate the likely preservation of and increase in the medium term volume

commodity stocks the major economies (Figure 1). This reduction in the annual, quarterly growth in resources in the storage facilities traditionally in terms of long-term cause of rising prices for raw materials.

Against this background, the stability of bovine trend in the major segments of the commodity market in the medium term to a relatively high probability scenarios.

parallel trend continues to grow stabilize the world economy, considerable administrative and financial support for the central market of corporate and government securities.

Perhaps in this respect, in the long term decline in the coming weeks, quotes the euro to the dollar will be modest in nature. However, towards the end of TG this trend is the ability to increase under the influence, including - to further weakening of monetary policy of the ECB.

By 10:30 Moscow time on Monday the Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket on the MICEX reached 32.22 and 38.30 rubles. against, respectively, 31.70 and 37.70 rubles. at the close of trading the previous five days.

Quotations Russian currency on the international FX in recent days have reached the mark, near the significant level of resistance that, from a technical standpoint, it seems, limits the potential growth in the short term.

In the coming weeks, reducing the relative value of RUB in the world market, may continue even in a favorable result in the development of the situation on financial markets of Russia. Expected in the medium term strengthening of central financial support for domestic consumption and investment in the environment may have a relatively smooth process of improving the performance of external payment Russia will contribute to the development of this trend.

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