Against the backdrop of positive signals from the primary market of shares of Russian oil and gas sector are included in the list of today's favorites
Jun 25th, 2009 | By admin | Category: News and CommentsThis week the Russian stock market is seriously prosel against the backdrop of negative signals from external sites. However, these signals were moderately - negative, and this factor, in my opinion, was not the main - the main reason, in my opinion, was the withdrawal from the market fairly large mid-term investors, which is confirmed and volumes, which significantly exceeded the levels of consolidation last week. The fall was compounded by and permit the opening of shorts, which entered into force on Monday.
MICEX index this week is back in the mid-term rising channel, which in the short term may continue to consolidate. The decline of the MICEX Index closing levels from last week has exceeded 15%. During today's session, the market has once again demonstrated the ongoing instability, followed by growth at the opening of the trading day followed the downward correction, after which the market back in the plus. All this happened at a quiet appearance background. Technically, the index of the MICEX consolidated in a narrow corridor (1000 - 1030 points). The volume, despite a factor Friday, good enough.
Before the end of today's session, significant changes in the market is not expected. I recommend to sit out the weekend in the cache, as well as external sites volatility is high. The reason for the strong levels of Perforation resistance until Monday and may not appear so on the first trading day next week we can have a neutral external background, while at a foreign background, as shown by the experience of yesterday's session, the market could easily otrisovat few per cent down, the more that both short-and medium-term potential for this reduction is available.
In the next week remain high volatility. MICEX index could easily test the upper limit of the medium as a channel in the vicinity of a bottom-up 1130 points or lower - in the region of 960 points. From the macroeconomic data is to provide statistics on the U.S. housing market, in particular, sales of existing and new homes, as well as data on orders for durable goods. Strong signals for purchases will return the index into the corridor 500 SP 930 - 950 paragraphs and quotations achieving new annual highs oil. The upcoming week is recommended speculative strategy, as the levels of the majority of liquid shares indicate the exit of large investors, who, without apparent reason are unlikely to begin to open up medium-term position on the paper.
Against the backdrop of positive signals from the primary market of shares of Russian oil and gas sector are included in the list of today's favorites. The leaders are the shares of Rosneft against the backdrop of rumors of a possible additional issue in favor of Surgutneftegas. If confirmed, these rumors of paper can continue to rise and early in coming weeks. Technically, the short-term growth potential of small, but in the case of strong gepa up shares on Monday to return to the medium-term upward channel in order to return to a level of 21-day moving average (195 rub.) Near which I recommend to reduce the position.
Shares of banks are worse than the market against the backdrop of recent negative forecasts for the rating of Russian banks, as well as on the background of the Central Bank statements on the preparations for large-scale clean the banking sector from small unscrupulous players. I recommend to stay away from purchasing shares in the sector. The opening short positions due to the low technical capacity to decrease is also dangerous.
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