USD

Despite the not very positive U.S. data continues to maintain stable positions, for their part played by the unstable situation in Europe, as well as fears of China. The latter decided to play an egotist and began to restrain economic growth at the expense of global recovery. Failed to undermine confidence in the dollar and Obama"s decision to tighten control over the banking sector, although the currency a little shaken. Lack of economic data on the last day of the week left the USD to the Court of technical factors and speculative trading. As a result, the currency rose against the pound, fluctuated in narrow ranges against the euro, but weakened sharply against the yen, which suggests that the dynamics is rather determined by flight from risk.

next week promises a lot of interesting events. Continued debate over the approval of Bernanke for a second term: it requires 60 votes in the Senate. Until recently the event itself is not attracted to such interest, if not talk about that some officials oppose Fedrezerva current head (and Democrats who have always acted in support of it). Apparently, even the most ardent of his supporters are beginning to understand that all measures taken "by Ben-helicopter not only failed, but were frankly a failure (right back to the countless packages of incentives from the hard jaw names). Thus, if the statement still does not take place, it can conceal a huge threat to the U.S. dollar. Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve means and uncertainty about future economic development.

In addition, we waiting for the FOMC meeting on rates and GDP for the 4 th quarter. Both events are able to completely turn the currency markets on its head. First, it is interesting accompanying statement of the Committee. Does he react to the recent1000disappointing labor market and retail sales. If the forecast for economic status is an allusion to the fact that conditions in some areas deteriorate, it will sign the verdict of the American currency. Nevertheless, the prolonged fall in the dollar can be seen only in the case and GDP will be disappointed. If the growth rate would fall below the projected 4.5%, demand for the USD to fall. Today"s calendar will bring only the data on the housing market. The report was unlikely to cause a surge of interest in the markets, so it"s expected to adjust positions ahead of key events.

EUR

euro was extremely weak throughout the last week. Only the last day of the currency could strengthen a bit, but its position is still very shaky. Achilles" heel of the region lies in the fact that its economy is composed of 16 components, 5 of which can utyanut clearly at the bottom of the entire ship. Problems of Greece can not be solved in a short time, and who knows how to solve them at all, so this factor will long serve as a "sword of Damocles" over his head euros. Save the positions of currency can only be very strong indicators of other countries. On Friday, we mustered a little positive and distracted from the gloomy thoughts. Confidence in the business circles of France in December rose more than expected. Sentiment Index managers of industrial enterprises grew in December to 92 pkt. against the revised 88 pkt. in December. In addition, factory orders in 16 countries in the eurozone rose in November after a sharp decline in October, entrenched by 1,6% m /m, but decreased by 1,5% y /y.

This week attention, as before, will involve problems of Greece, so the first plan will auction announced by the Government of the country to raise funds to finance its budget deficit. The demand of investors will be crucial for the euro. Today will be published only report on consumer trust Gfk, which is unlikely to be able to cause a reaction in the markets.

GBP

last working day of last week was not very happy for the pound. Indicators of UK retail sales for December came far below expectations. In annual terms, they were at least 11 years. Retail sales rose 0.3% m /m and 2.1% y /y. Projected growth was up 1.3% m /m and 3.2% y /y. This suggests that consumers are little faith in the imminent restoration of the economy and prefer to postpone their money for a rainy day, even unimaginable discount holidays. Such a dynamic figure suggests that in the 4 quarter growth rate of the country may be very weak. However, we find out about it very soon, literally, on Tuesday. And if we look at the data below projections, it could exert serious pressure on the pound. The fact that Britain was the only major developed countries, which have not been able to show a way out of a technical recession.

JPY

USD /JPY closed on Friday below 90 for the first month, which helped a lot of growing up appetite for low-risk assets. And then the scene to be released new Finance Minister Kang, who, as we recall, is a staunch supporter of the weak yen. He has repeatedly spoken on currency interventions, it seems, it"s time to act. If the yen will continue to further strengthen on flight from risk, we may well expect the Bank of Japan action.

No sooner had investors reeling from some problems like the looming others
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