USD

dollars just collapsed, for no reason. Moreover, the dynamics of pair dollar /yen tells us that things are not in the draft to take risks, but rather just a lack of confidence in the dollar and expectations about the meeting FOMC. The market expects the majority of the Committee will increase the economic outlook, and perhaps even hint at what has already started to develop an exit strategy. But at the same time, the most likely phrase about the exceptionally low rates, which will be retained by such over a longer period will remain, and that causes traders to get rid of the dollar over the past few days. The cost of credit, for example, have been above the ECB and at the moment, besides, and the chances of a quick transition to the stricter regime higher than that of the Fed.

Thus, our job to warn that the reaction to the FOMC statement may be quite ambiguous. Initially, the dollar could even be strengthened in a more positive reports from the U.S. government, but then a wave of desire for risk can overwhelm the markets, sending the USD to the next minima. Your best bet in this situation, sit on the sidelines, watch the direction and only then (maybe) try to pick up the movement. In general, we ourselves will have to make findings only on three aspects: economic outlook, the program of quantitative easing, timing and probability of an exit strategy. Here on this and we will dance.

Turning to economic reports, we note that the data on retail sales from Redbook confirmed the reduction in consumer spending over the past week. Traditional wave of purchases with the beginning of the school season is over and now, probably we will see a reduction in performance. In addition, a separate report showed that in September the index of industrial activity FRB Richmond remained at 14 despite the projected growth to 16. And here is one of the most affected by the recession sectors of the economy - the housing market - continues to show signs of recovery. As reported the Federal Agency for the U.S. housing finance, in July house prices rose by 0,3% m /m. However, the annualized rates still show decline (-4.2%), as well as on 10,5% fall short of the peak in April 2007 Let's see, what will the FOMC.

EUR

Euro is in the best position: despite the lack of economic reports currency continues to strengthen against the dollar. One of the main causes of these dynamics is the position of the ECB on monetary policy and economic prospects. Moreover, a complete lack of reaction of officials in the current strengthening of the single currency is also doing its part. The fact that the authorities are not worried about the fact that a higher rate may put pressure on local exporters, only encourages the market going forward.

Today, we finally get the first batch of economic reports: data on business activity in services and manufacturing eurozone. If the figures will move to the positive territory (above level 50), it will only support the strengthening of the euro.

GBP

The UK also continues to be silent in the economic sense: since the beginning of the week, we almost did not get any data. Nevertheless, this does not prevent currency display active movement. At this time the weakness of the dollar helped the pound strengthen slightly, but we all understand that this is only a temporary phenomenon that will depend solely on the protocol of the last meeting of the Bank of England and the outcome of today's meeting, FOMC. As we have said, MPC at its last meeting decided to leave the program amounts of quantitative easing on the same level. Now we are interested to see how many votes had been taken such a decision. If the vote gap was small, and many were in favor of increased buying of assets, it can again send the pound to the next minima (and the chances of that are very large).

Futures for the American indexes have not yet decided on the direction of the day
Banks need to increase reserves, but the parameters for the calculation has not yet determined
Western investors gave an optimistic outlook on Russia's market, and the leaders of today's growth - Sberbank, Gazprom, Mechel - called priority for purchases
In the case of continued growth in Russia market, the level of resistance will make the annual maximum - 1240 points on the MICEX
Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX rose 17.80 points, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 25.71 points
As leaders of growth remain Sberbank and Mosenergo, the worse the market traded securities of LUKoil and Surgutneftegaz
At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI was 119.03, compared with the closing on Tuesday, it rose by 0.143%
Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra DAX (Xetra DAX) rose 17.80 points (0.31%) and is located at 5727.18
Overview of the oil market for 22.09.09