USD

Movement of the dollar were mixed, suggesting that this time the players have chosen a few landmarks, and the main fiddle playing does not buck, and the dynamics of his opponents. However, economic reports were quite positive that, in theory, should have caused a regular decrease in demand for currency of refuge on the background of growing expectations of a way out of recession. However, it seems the market has exhausted the topic to date, and to see a new burst of activity, we must find another catalyst. Today, perhaps we can find something similar, but more on that later.

To begin with, that reports on corporate profits continue to radiate optimism that absolutely does not surprise us, yes, it seems, and markets. Growth rates above expectations for companies such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup practically there was no reaction of traders, though we could expect another surge in demand for risky assets. Turning to the economic picture, it is worth noting that in October the index of industrial activity FRB of New York Empire recorded a third consecutive increase (expansion of such duration not noted in January 2008). General index of business activity in the manufacturing industry in the region increased to a maximum of mid-2004 value of 34.6 against 18.9 in September. Yes, and manufacturing sector activity in the area FRB of Philadelphia continues to show signs of recovery in October. FRB of Philadelphia reported that the index of general business conditions was 11.5 in October against 14.1 in September and 4.2 in August. That is, the index is on the positive territory already 3 months. Meanwhile, consumer prices in the U.S. slowed. In September, CPI has appreciated by 0.2% after increasing by 0,4% in August. Excluding prices for food and energy (the so-called pure index) prices also rose 0.2%, exceeding forecasts. Report from the labor market showed that the number of initial applications for benefits on the b /p dropped to its lowest level since January this year. The averaged rate of the primary applications for 4 weeks, helping to distance themselves from the weekly volatility, also showed 6-th consecutive decline. In general, all spoke in favor of restoring the American economy. Let us see whether such dynamics hold at least until the end of the year.

If we turn our gaze to the present calendar, we can clearly distinguish the report on capital flows TIC as the most important factor of influence on the currency market. Indicator, which measures foreign demand for dollar assets to dispel doubts about another topic, about which the market for a time forgot. In addition to expectations for rates and rumors about the restoration of the world economy, the dollar is under pressure and in connection with the talk of diversification of currency reserves. So, if we suddenly see that the demand for U.S. currency remains strong, USD could get better. It should be noted that this report will be of interest in the next few months: as we recall, the weakening of bucks on the background of rumors about the diversification of foreign exchange reserves began in August and September already took effect. If central banks around the world and really fulfill their promises and have started to get rid of quickly losing its yield currencies, it will all be clearly traced in the report TIC.

EUR

Euro did not manage to break the psychological resistance level of $ 1.50, and in fact, this morning there was even a slight pullback below $ 1.49. Perhaps the blame became head of the ECB's Trichet repeated the words that the U.S. should pursue a strong dollar, and the single currency is not ready to become a world currency. The fact that such statements we have heard, kept the EUR from the free-fall, but if the comments Trichet joins a host of votes and other official representatives, we may see a decrease in the euro. It seems that the Central Bank governing council begins to realize that a strong national currency in times of weak global demand only harms the economy.

report published yesterday by CPI only confirmed that yet that the chances of the ECB for the implementation of exit strategies from the regime of mitigation is not so much. In September, consumer prices in the F-16 registered a reduction of 4-th row, which is associated with falling energy prices and the desperate attempts of companies to survive during the world economic crisis due to falling prices and savings on staff. Index CPI decreased by 0.3% y /y in August after falling by 0,2%, confirming the initial assessment, published on September 30. In monthly terms, the index remained in the flat market after the increase in August on 0,3% m /m. Currently only scheduled report on trade balance, which is likely to remain without attention. Pay attention to the component exports: the strong euro could seriously weaken it so important for the European economy indicator.

GBP

Pound became a star of yesterday's trading, entrenched against the dollar and against the euro. And, yesterday There has been no significant economic reports or official commentary. Day on the market rumors that the next month, the monetary authorities of England may make a pause in its program of purchasing assets, as the economy shows signs of recovery. This theme appeared in the market due to published in the Financial Times saying the representative of the Bank of England's Paul Fischer that the Bank can make a pause in buying assets in order to secure an opportunity to do more later. Such a sharp change in sentiment after another recent gloomy predictions could not regain confidence in the pound. Unfortunately, today's calendar is empty, so that the price movement may stop or even reverse direction to buy in anticipation of the weekend.

JPY

Dollar at a rate able to restore their positions against the yen, and here its role is likely played just a correction after the massive sales of U.S. currency.The economic picture in Japan is very poor. Today we learned that total average monthly salary of permanent employees decreased by -2,7% in August (against the original -3,1%). That was 15 th consecutive annual decline, although not so strong as in July (-5.6%) and June (-7.0%). In addition, the Japanese government has left an overall assessment of the economy unchanged for the third time in succession, repeating that the economy is growing, but warned that the cause of growth - is the restoration of the export sector, as domestic demand remains low. Also in its October economic report, the Government indicated a high level of unemployment. The new administration has set itself the task to stimulate domestic demand, maintaining the household and creating new jobs to combat unemployment. Let's see, will not all these slogans of change of power a reality.

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