USD

Despite the fact that we expected objection from a thin market, nothing criminal had happened. Currencies throughout the day sluggishly fluctuated near the closing levels Friday. Meeting Big Twenties did not cause the slightest emotion on the faces of traders, as well as the communiqué was of a rather restrained and, in fact, did not contain any radical changes. However, the calendar this week is unlikely to bring relief - States do not offer anything sverhinteresnogo and standing reports only Beige Book, the data on trade balance and a preliminary study of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.

Thus, more important for the currency market will be meeting at the rate of three central banks: New Zealand, Britain and Canada. Each of the Bank of its approach as reflected in the course of their national currencies. For example, we recently heard that New Zealand believes that has emerged from recession. At the same time, representatives of the UK terror talk about the gloomy prospects of the national economy, while Canada has already selects exit strategy from the current regime of monetary mitigation. We observe the official speeches.

If we turnto today, the only difference from Monday, probably will be that Labor Day has passed and, in theory, the activity in the markets will gradually increase. The only published reports will reflect the volume of consumer credit, which is also important, given the dependence of the U.S. population from the other people's money.

EUR

Factory orders in Germany rose in July, the fifth month in a row, contributing to the restoration of Europe's largest economy. Euro slightly stronger during the dull trading yesterday, largely because the only records of the day, which also proved positive. The volume of orders in Germany rose in July, taking into account seasonal adjustments by 3,5% m /m. The increase in factory orders in July was due to increase in domestic orders for 10,3%. Thus, we are beginning to see as Engine of the eurozone is gaining momentum, gaining support from the stimulus package the government, as well as the restoration industry.

Today we received additional reports from Germany. Balance on current account, trade balance and industrial production - all this will allow us to further analyze the state's largest economic system of the eurozone. Given the recent growth in manufacturing PMI, one can expect positive indicators that can provide additional support for the single currency.

GBP

But the pound was not so fortunate with the dynamics in thin trading Monday as he lost his position and against the euro and against the dollar. Perhaps a contribution made by the expectations of the next meeting of the Bank of England, from which (judging by the mood of the monetary authorities) can not expect positive. In addition, economic reports have raised fears: more recently the first indicator, each testified about the stabilization of economic processes, but now we are seeing rollback in negative territory. Study of the British Retail Consortium showed that in August, an indicator assessing retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% y /y - the first time since May. Although it may be the indicator had a negative impact of such factors as the summer bank holiday, which last year came as the reporting period, but this time we were outside of the report, covering the period from 2 to 29 August.

Today, we draw attention to a report on industrial output, which is worth paying attention to the recent transition of index PMI in the manufacturing industry in the territory of the recession. If the negative dynamics is confirmed, the British currency could come under pressure again.

JPY

Asian session was characterized by contradictory trends. First on the trading floors of the prevailing flight from risk, although the overall trading activity was low after a quiet holiday trading in America. Furthermore, Japan has published data on the current account surplus, which turned out to be weaker than forecast, and the subsequent opening with a decrease in the Chinese stock market and slipping into red territory Nikkei 225 index triggered a surge of avoiding risks, reducing running theme crosses involving the yen. But later all again returned to square one.

In July current account surplus of Japan narrowed to Y1.266 trillion. (-19.4% Y /y). This happened after the expansion of surplus in June - the first time since February 2008 and immediately to the spectacular 144.4%. Meanwhile, exports decreased by 37,6% y /y, while imports - by 41,2% against the corresponding values of the June -37% and -43.8%. As a result, the country's trade surplus for the reporting month amounted to Y437, 3 billion, or 42,3% y /y. As a separate report on bank lending, it reflected an increase of 1,9% y /y against 2.2% in July - slowdown in the 7 th consecutive month, and the minimal increase in September 2008 Index of Economic observers also went on the decline which is not consistent with the theory of the gradual recovery of the Japanese economy made by the officials. While it may be a new theory of the new government.

Review of the FOREX market for 07.09.09
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