USD

In general, the States did not surprise us, not at all. GDP report was presented in the best traditions of American cinema: the past can be any problem, but ends all happy-endom. Once again we see that the pace of decline slowing economy, even worse than analysts anticipated. Never mind that the data for 1 quarter revised up to -6.4% (against previous -5.5%). Who cares if it was the beginning of the year - is now something much better. But the market is not very kupilis on the whole positive. In fact, after reporting currency remained almost at previous levels, as well as positive levels of over 2 months was neutralized by negative reviews. Are you ready to believe that it is stabilized or are the green shoots? I think, judging from the United States relative to statistical data, and can not be too trusting. The accounts of American companies from Caterpillar Inc. before Dow Chemical Co. indicates that the economic slowdown is slowing, as well as government efforts to revive lending and a plan to help the economy Barack Obama are beginning to have a beneficial effect. At the same time, the components of GDP indicate that consumer spending, which accounted for 70% of GDP, declined in the last quarter more than doubled against expectations, and analysts believe that their recovery will require months, as unemployment continues to rise.

Turning to foreign exchange movements, say that Friday was of surprises until the last moment. U.S. still had to surrender under the pressure of speculative demand for riskier positions, this time to do its part made it U.S. stock indices, noting record maximums. In addition, our contribution has made and the Chicago PMI report. The study reflected the growth of business activity index to a maximum in September 2008, reinforcing expectations of an early conclusion of a recession. Chicago PMI index rose to 43.4 in July from 39.9 in June, predicted it would rise to 43.5. Thus, the quiet months of the year (June and July) to quit, and now expect something more interesting. Usually, the beginning of August, the activity in the markets is increasing, and current week burn an excellent tool for the formation of new trends. In the next five days we will see the meeting on the rates of the three central banks (Bank of Australia, the ECB and the Bank of England), as well as a report on U.S. employment.

So, the main aspects mentioned, therefore, today we start preparing for the Friday release of NFP. For starters, we report for the ISM manufacturing. As we know, the service sector plays a greater role as a component of leading indicators of employment, however, and today's release should not be discounted. Positive dynamics of the index can only reinforce the tendency to draft risk.

EUR

So, the Euro still managed to return all suffered losses last week. However, to say the truth, the economic data have relevance to the minimum. The rate of unemployment in the euro zone grew not so much as expected - only 0.1 PTS, but it has updated the 10-year maximum of 9.4%. In June, the work lost 158 thousand against 186 thousand in May, in April, 295 thousand people have been deprived of their jobs. The total number of unemployed has 14.896 million which is 3.17 million more than last year. Meanwhile, consumer inflation is the euro zone in July continued to decline, reaching a record level. The July drop to 0.6% year on year as a whole in line with expectations of experts. As usual, the details of a report on the euro zone CPI are known only on 14 August, when will the final value of the index for July.

view of the planned meeting for the current week at the rate of the ECB, it is worth noting that the negative CPI, of course, must affect the decision of the Governing Board. Perhaps, at a press conference, we learn that 1% loss cost of lending - is not the limit, and we have yet to see a decline. Thus, under the action is expected this event is likely to be the dynamics of the euro. In this sense, Monday could be telling - if we do not see a correction after Friday turbulent motions, and even the German retail sales will bring positive, the single currency could continue to move forward.

GBP

Finally, we waited for a breakthrough pound established band, with its upper border. However, in addition to the weakness of the dollar, the British currency were additional reasons for growth. Agency Fitch has confirmed long-term credit rating of Great Britain AAA and reported the preservation of a stable projection. Fitch noted that the rating of the UK has the support of the diversified economy, which creates products and services with high added value, has a stable company and a very substantial flexibility of funding, which has analogues in other countries only rated AAA.

This week will be meeting Bank of England, the chances that this time the policy changes we have seen, very small. If you remember back a decision on a rate, some representatives of the MPC, Charles Bean said that the decision on additional incentives will be based on economic data and inflation forecasts. Since that time, inflation indicators showed mixed trends, consumer spending strengthened, and the housing market gave signs of stabilization. Thus, the Bank of England may elect a tactic of waiting, and wait until the release of its quarterly inflation report, scheduled for August 12.

Today's calendar is not so intense. Only data on business activity in manufacturing, as well as the price index for housing. As we remember, the service is already two months demonstrates indicators PMI above 50, signifying the beginning of growth in the industry. If the manufacturing sector will follow suit, it can only support the strengthening of the pound.

JPY

The start of the week had not yielded any revelations, and even after the correction of turbulent motions Friday were observed. During the last session of the Asian pair dollar /yen trading in narrow ranges due to the emergence of bilateral interest in the currency, while the thirst for risk has remained generally changing in anticipation of the release of some key economic data this week.

out the morning report from Japan showed that the average salary in June showed the maximum reduction since the start of observation. This happened because the company, fearful of reduced costs, cut allowances. It can be concluded that consumers are unlikely to contribute to the reconstruction of the country's economy. As the Ministry of Labor announced today in Tokyo, ezhemesyachn6aya wages, including overtime and bonuses, fell by 7.1% y /y to 430 620 yen ($ 4 500). The rate has been minimal since the beginning point of research in 1990.

Overview of the foreign exchange market 03.08.2009
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